US natgas futures ease, end August lower on fading summer heat

Nextdecade

29/08/2025 15:50

Exxon sees global gas demand up 20% by 2050

Natgas futures on track for second straight monthly loss

LSEG forecast 149 CDDs over the next two weeks vs 128 a day earlier

By Sherin Elizabeth Varghese

Aug 29 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures eased on Friday as muted trade ahead of a U.S. holiday weekend pulled prices off recent highs, with the market posting a second straight monthly loss on weaker-than-expected summer heat.

Front-month gas futures for October delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 0.3% to $2.93 per million British thermal units as of 10:33 a.m. EDT (1433 GMT). The contract touched its highest since August 11 in the prior session and is on track for an 9% weekly gain but a 5.3% monthly loss.

Financial markets will be closed on Monday for the Labor Day holiday.

"I think overall trade volumes are going to be relatively muted today in advance of the holiday in the U.S.; you're not seeing folks take aggressive positions going into the long weekend. And so the bulls that drove us higher are covering a little bit. That's probably what's leading to the softening," said Gary Cunningham, director of market research at Tradition Energy.

"Overall, we expected some very robust heat across the U.S. in July and August, and it really didn't manifest. August ended up being a lot less impactful from a heat perspective, and now the outlooks for September are well off from what they were sixty days ago. That's why we're down for the month," Cunningham added.

Financial firm LSEG estimated 149 cooling degree days over the next two weeks, higher than the 128 CDDs estimated on Thursday. The normal for this time of year is 128 CDDs. CDDs, which are used to estimate demand to cool homes and businesses, measure the number of degrees a day's average temperature is above 65 degrees Fahrenheit (18 degrees Celsius).

"When you get a little heat in the South, people turn on their air conditioning. The short-term outlook and the longer-term outlook are both bullish,"  said Phil Flynn, senior analyst for Price Futures Group.

"The longer-term outlook is looking very bullish. Demand for natural gas is bottoming out, and cheap prices will inspire more demand, which should give us a floor. Projections for a colder winter also provide longer-term support."

Global demand for natural gas will rise more than 20% by 2050 from last year's level, as it displaces coal to power industries and meet higher electricity use in developing countries, Exxon Mobil XOM.N said on Thursday in an annual outlook.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Thursday, energy firms added 18 billion cubic feet of gas into storage during the week ended August 22.

That was smaller than the 26-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an increase of 35 bcf during the same week a year ago and a five-year (2020-2024) average build of 38 bcf for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would slightly rise from 103.6 bcfd this week to 104.3 bcfd next.

LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states had risen to 108.5 bcfd so far in August, up from a record monthly high of 107.8 bcfd in July.

The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants has risen to 15.9 bcfd in August, up from 15.6 bcfd in July. That compares with a record monthly high of 16.0 bcfd in April.

In the tropics, the U.S. National Hurricane Center reported no disturbances in the Atlantic.

Week ended Aug 29 Forecast
Week ended Aug 22 
 Actual
Year ago Aug 22
Five-year average Aug 22
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):
+48
+18
+35
+38
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):
3,265
3,217
3,329
3,063
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average
+6.6%
+5.0%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2024
Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NGc1
2.96
2.86
2.09
2.41
3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1
10.90
10.82
12.40
10.95
15.47
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1
11.21
11.31
13.31
11.89
15.23
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
Current Day
Prior Day
Prior Year
10-Year Norm
30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs
14
13
11
12
13
U.S. GFS CDDs
149
128
134
140
128
U.S. GFS TDDs
163
141
145
142
141
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week
Current Week
Next Week
This Week Last Year
Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
108.6
108.1
107.9
101.7
97.9
U.S. Imports from Canada
7.4
7.2
7.5
N/A
7.5
U.S. LNG Imports
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
Total U.S. Supply
116.0
115.3
115.3
N/A
105.5
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada
2.5
2.5
2.5
N/A
2.3
U.S. Exports to Mexico
7.4
7.2
7.4
N/A
6.4
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas
16.0
16.0
15.5
13.1
10.2
U.S. Commercial
4.6
4.6
4.8
4.5
4.6
U.S. Residential
3.7
3.7
4.0
3.7
3.4
U.S. Power Plant
43.2
39.8
40.3
43.5
44.4
U.S. Industrial
22.3
22.2
22.3
21.8
21.9
U.S. Plant Fuel
5.4
5.3
5.3
5.3
5.2
U.S. Pipe Distribution
2.2
2.1
2.1
2.2
3.1
U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
Total U.S. Consumption
81.3
77.9
78.9
81.1
82.8
Total U.S. Demand
107.3
103.6
104.3
N/A
95.3
N/A is Not Available
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)
2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast
2025
Prior Day % of Normal Forecast
2024
% of Normal Actual
2023
% of Normal Actual
2022
% of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep
77
77
74
83
107
Jan-Jul
78
78
76
77
102
Oct-Sep
80
80
77
76
103
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
Week ended Aug 29
Week ended Aug 22
2024
2023
2022
Wind
6
6
11
10
11
Solar
7
7
5
4
3
Hydro
5
5
6
6
6
Other
1
1
1
2
2
Petroleum
0
0
0
0
0
Natural Gas
46
46
42
41
38
Coal
16
19
16
17
21
Nuclear
19
17
19
19
19
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
2.90
2.88
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
1.30
1.40
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
3.30
3.27
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL
1.26
1.36
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
2.45
2.53
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
1.35
1.55
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
3.25
3.49
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
1.20
1.08
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL
0.89
1.03
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX
31.50
28.00
PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX
28.40
27.14
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX
43.85
51.19
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX
39.25
49.15
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX
34.89
41.25


 (Reporting by Sherin Elizabeth Varghese in Bengaluru; Editing by Susan Fenton)

 ((sherinelizabeth.varghese@thomsonreuters.com;))