U.S. natgas futures rise to one-week high on warmer outlook
28/05/2021 14:21
May 28 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures rose to their highest in more than a week on Friday, buoyed by
forecasts for warmer weather in two weeks and a projected increase in liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports.
The warmer weather is expected to boost the amount of fuel needed for power generation to keep air
conditioning units humming, though traders noted that demand next week is likely be similar to this week, kept
in check by mild weather and the Memorial Day holiday on Monday.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 rose 6.7 cents, or 2.3%, to $3.025 per million British thermal units at 9:02
a.m. EDT (1302 GMT), putting the contract on track for its highest close since it settled at a three-month high
of $3.109 on May 17.
For the week, the contract was up about 4% after falling about 2% last week.
For the month, the contract was up about 3% after gaining about 12% last month.
Data provider Refinitiv said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has averaged 91 billion cubic feet per
day (bcfd) in May, up from 90.6 bcfd in April. That, however, was still well below November 2019's monthly
record of 95.4 bcfd.
With warmer weather coming after the U.S. Memorial Day holiday week, Refinitiv projected average gas demand,
including exports, would rise from 83.6 bcfd this week to 84.1 bcfd next week with a projected increase in LNG
exports and 90.1 bcfd in two weeks as warmer weather boosts demand for air conditioning. The forecast for next
week was slightly higher than Refinitiv predicted on Thursday.
The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants has averaged 10.8 bcfd so far in May, down from April's
monthly record of 11.5 bcfd. The decline was attributable to short-term issues and normal spring maintenance at
a few Gulf Coast plants and the gas pipelines that supply them. urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL1N2MN14N
But with European TRNLTTFMc1 gas prices near their highest since September 2018 and Asian JKMc1 prices
above $10 per mmBtu, analysts said they expect buyers around the world to keep purchasing all the LNG the United
States can provide.
U.S. pipeline exports to Mexico, meanwhile, have averaged 6.0 bcfd so far in May, just off April's monthly
record of 6.1 bcfd, Refinitiv data showed.
Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year
May 28 May 21 May 28 average
(Forecast) (Actual) May 28
U.S. natgas storage (bcf): +92 +115 +103 +96
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year
Last Year Average Average
2020 (2016-2020)
Henry Hub NGc1 2.99 3.02 1.81 2.13 2.66
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 8.94 9.21 1.57 3.24 5.19
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 10.38 10.63 2.08 4.22 6.49
Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year Norm
Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs 25 25 34 49 31
U.S. GFS CDDs 145 140 100 89 113
U.S. GFS TDDs 170 165 134 138 144
Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week Current Week Next Week This Week Five-Year
Last Year Average For
Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 90.8 91.3 91.2 86.0 79.9
U.S. Imports from Canada 6.2 6.3 6.5 6.8 7.7
U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
Total U.S. Supply 97.1 97.6 97.7 92.8 87.7
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.1 2.1
U.S. Exports to Mexico 6.1 6.1 6.1 4.9 4.3
U.S. LNG Exports 10.4 10.5 11.2 6.2 3.2
U.S. Commercial 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.6 5.5
U.S. Residential 4.8 4.6 4.5 3.9 6.5
U.S. Power Plant 25.2 27.5 27.0 30.2 26.0
U.S. Industrial 21.4 21.5 21.6 21.1 20.7
U.S. Plant Fuel 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5
U.S. Pipe Distribution 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 2.1
U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Total U.S. Consumption 62.7 64.8 64.4 66.1 65.4
Total U.S. Demand 81.2 83.6 84.1 79.3 75.0
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub Current Day Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL 2.85 2.91
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL 2.30 2.41
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL 3.78 3.75
Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL 2.13 2.25
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL 2.70 2.80
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL 2.05 2.30
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL 3.55 4.05
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL 2.60 2.50
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub Current Day Prior Day
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL 26.50 29.50
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL 21.75 23.00
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL 29.50 30.50
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL 26.75 26.75
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL 26.00 26.00
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL 27.00 27.00
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino
Editing by David Goodman
)
((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging:
scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))
((For Refinitiv type ENERGY in Eikon search bar and then go to the GAS dropdown and the NORTH AMERICA dropdown or see: cpurl://apps.cp./cms/?pageid=usa-gas
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Reuters Eikon terminal.
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
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NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C ))