U.S. natgas futures slide on big storage build (updated)
27/05/2021 15:33
(Adds EIA storage report, latest prices)
May 27 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell on Thursday following the release of a report showing a
bigger-than-expected storage build last week when the amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG)
export plants declined for mostly seasonal maintenance.
That price decline came despite the front-month contract rolling to the higher priced July delivery month
and forecasts for slightly more demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.
The U.S Energy Information Administration (EIA) said U.S. utilities added 115 billion cubic feet (bcf) of
gas into storage during the week ended May 21.
That was more than the 104-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an increase of
105 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2016-2020) average increase of 91 bcf. EIA/GAS
Last week's injection boosted stockpiles to 2.215 trillion cubic feet (tcf), or 2.8% below the five-year
average of 2.278 tcf for this time of year.
On its first day as the front-month, gas futures NGc1 for July delivery fell 6.4 cents, or 2.1%, from
where the July NGN21 contract closed on Wednesday to $2.963 per million British thermal units at 10:38 a.m.
EDT (1438 GMT).
That was down about 1% from where the June contract settled when it was the front-month.
Data provider Refinitiv said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states averaged 91.0 billion cubic feet per day
(bcfd) so far in May, up from 90.6 bcfd in April. That, however, is still well below November 2019's monthly
record of 95.4 bcfd.
With milder weather on the horizon and the U.S. Memorial Day holiday coming this weekend, Refinitiv
projected average gas demand, including exports, would ease from 83.6 bcfd this week to 82.7 bcfd next week.
Those forecasts were slightly higher than Refinitiv predicted on Wednesday.
The amount of gas flowing to U.S. LNG export plants averaged 10.8 bcfd so far in May, down from April's
monthly record of 11.5 bcfd. The decline was due to short-term issues and normal spring maintenance at a few
Gulf Coast plants and the gas pipelines that supply them, including small reductions in feedgas to Corpus
Christi in Texas and Cameron in Louisiana over the past couple of days. urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL1N2MN14N
But with European TRNLTTFMc1 gas prices near their highest since September 2018 and Asian JKMc1 prices
near $11 per mmBtu, analysts said they expect buyers around the world to keep purchasing all the LNG the United
States can provide.
U.S. pipeline exports to Mexico, meanwhile, averaged 6.0 bcfd so far in May, just off April's monthly record
of 6.1 bcfd, Refinitiv data showed.
Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year
May 21 May 14 May 21 average
(Actual) (Actual) May 21
U.S. natgas storage (bcf): +115 +71 +105 +91
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year
Last Year Average Average
2020 (2016-2020)
Henry Hub NGc1 3.02 2.96 1.81 2.13 2.66
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 9.21 9.51 1.57 3.24 5.19
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 10.63 10.60 2.08 4.22 6.49
Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year Norm
Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs 25 23 34 49 33
U.S. GFS CDDs 140 138 100 89 110
U.S. GFS TDDs 165 161 134 138 143
Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week Current Week Next Week This Week Five-Year
Last Year Average For
Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 90.8 91.2 91.3 86.0 79.9
U.S. Imports from Canada 6.2 6.3 6.6 6.8 7.7
U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
Total U.S. Supply 97.1 97.5 97.9 92.8 87.7
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.1
U.S. Exports to Mexico 6.1 6.1 6.1 4.9 4.3
U.S. LNG Exports 10.4 10.5 10.4 6.2 3.2
U.S. Commercial 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.6 5.5
U.S. Residential 4.8 4.5 4.4 3.9 6.5
U.S. Power Plant 25.2 27.6 26.7 30.2 26.0
U.S. Industrial 21.4 21.5 21.6 21.1 20.7
U.S. Plant Fuel 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5
U.S. Pipe Distribution 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 2.1
U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Total U.S. Consumption 62.7 64.8 63.9 66.1 65.4
Total U.S. Demand 81.2 83.6 82.7 79.3 75.0
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub Current Day Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL 2.91 2.87
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL 2.41 2.48
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL 3.75 3.85
Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL 2.22 2.25
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL 2.80 2.76
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL 2.30 2.51
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL 4.05 4.00
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL 2.50 2.45
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub Current Day Prior Day
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL 29.50 32.50
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL 23.00 27.00
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL 30.50 31.00
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL 26.75 37.63
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL 26.00 26.25
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL 27.00 33.50
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino
Editing by Bernadette Baum and Mark Potter)
((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging:
scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))
((For Refinitiv type ENERGY in Eikon search bar and then go to the GAS dropdown and the NORTH AMERICA dropdown or see: cpurl://apps.cp./cms/?pageid=usa-gas
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Reuters Eikon terminal.
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
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