An update on ISAT, State of the markets, Easyjet and Debenhams

14th Feb '18 by Taff6

6 comments 7109 reads

This is an update to the comments I posted on this article
https://www.stockopedia.com/co...
Or to go straight to the comment here
https://www.stockopedia.com/co...
Here’s a great a great stocko article on overtrading and impatience when investing, and its one of the rules I have followed in my process. It refers to action bias
https://www.stockopedia.com/co...
However this doesn’t mean that we should just invest, forget and bury our heads in the sand. It’s been 3 months since I commented on Inmarsat (LON:ISAT). This 3 month is my invest and be patience time frame with the discretionary exception of profit warnings, unexpected negative news announcements or red flag occurrence. I’ve chosen 3 months as it represents a quarter. It’s now time to analyse evaluate and reconsider the Gartey pattern which formed on Inmarsat (LON:ISAT) charts and the price action in the potential reversal zone (PRZ). So let’s have a look at £ISAT’s chart

The gartley formed 1st downward blue arrow on left. From there we had what appeared to be a symmetrical bottoming pattern forming A-G (Note reversals often follow 7 wave sequences A-G) followed by G-A. So the bears tried to force prices lower on 7 occasions and the bulls responded. From point G the bulls had the upper hand taking prices above the first harmi candlestick pattern (dark blue arrow) and back inside the gartley formation. From this point if price fails to continue rising look for the next development, looking at the chart we are able to identify a 1:1.272 AB=CD. At this time one is unsure whether the pattern has been completed or whether it is only the AB wave of a larger AB=CD. It would appear that only the AB wave of a larger AB=CD has completed as the CD leg dominates both in price and time (price is accelerating higher in CD leg) hinting at higher prices.
From here I’m looking for a retracement in the form of another AB=CD and have annotated one on the charts this terminates at the 2nd highlighted red arrow and a doji is visible. (This is also a 1:1.272, bear in mind this was annotated on the charts when it happened). Once this doji fails the only other positive outcome I could…

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Taff6

14th Feb '18

update on Inmarsat (LON:ISAT)
The fib .707, 1.41 & 2 are the key ratios in play
critical support level @427.40 and key resistance @439
volume is hinting at a move higher

18th Feb '18

An update on Inmarsat (LON:ISAT)
It’s been an eventful week for Inmarsat
The Bears hinted their intent Tuesday with a large bearish engulfing Candle
However the bulls had already signalled their meaning when the week opened higher and subsequently repelled the bears engulfing. The bulls closed out strongly with a weekly hammer candle, even so the top of the bearish engulfing still remains in play. We have reached the point where the bulls or bears will resolve this conflict. This pattern truly has completed in perfect harmony. Time and Price are both at their respective pivot points. We wait for the bulls and bears to turn their hand and deal the decisive fatal blow. Be careful wolves are hidden in the darkness. No patented pattern is visible here, make sure you’re on the right side of this trade. Once ISAT launches from this platform, these levels may never again see the light of day. I’m figuring we’ll be looking into one of orbit or oblivion.

VegPatch

20th Feb '18

so its a strong hold here?

22nd Jun '18

So the time has come to conclude this discussion post.

First things first apologies to vegpatch for not replying to his post at the time, somewhat impolite I know.
Starting with easyJet (LON:EZJ). We were looking for price to tag 1806 week commencing 11 June in order to complete the bearish BAT. The pattern completed this week with price touching 1808.5 Wednesday 20 June, so no cigar as this easyJet (LON:EZJ) flight came in days late. Where to next? We are now at an inflection point and I guess we’ll have to wait and see what the markets decide.

Next up the FTSE 100, I concluded my last article suggesting that we should be looking for buying opportunities and that we may be @the .618 of another Gartley! As it happens thats exactly where we were as the following chart demonstrates, also note that we completed the Gartley with a (1:1.272 AB=CD). The red line on the chart is the old high going back to Dec 1999. Where to next, who knows, however the reaction to the test of resistance now turned support from 1999 was pretty impressive. I suspect were currently entering the seasonal correction before moving higher, nonetheless I may well be wrong and all we can do is follow,

The Russell 2000 leads the way across the pond, Bull markets don’t usually end with small caps leading. The leading large cap index during this bull, the Nasdaq 100 (chart below) has also dismantled two bearish patterns (Gartley & Island top). Keep an eye on the UK Technicals on stocko’s home page. Can we make this box detachable with the pop up displaying the info along with line charts please Stocko?

Next Inmarsat (LON:ISAT)
When I initially looked at Inmarsat (LON:ISAT) it was just completing a Gartley pattern and anyone following the story will know that the Gartley pattern failed in the PRZ.
Beyond the Gartley
My observations since have been interesting to say the least. In my last post I quoted that “this pattern truly has completed in perfect harmony” and that “no patented pattern is visible here”. The fib .707, 1.41 & 2 were left as clues as to the resolution of the pattern. So let’s have a look. The fib .707, 1.41 & 2 were in fact the components from the CD leg of the AB=CD pattern. The pattern itself from inception involves this sequence of numbers and ratios
.618 squared = .786 - .786 squared = .886
We can now look at the C & D point in relation to the B point.
The first retracement from point B was .5 (Point C)
The inverse .5 = 2 the inverse of 2 = .5 (The inverse .5 = 2 Point D)
We can know see how these numbers fit into the pattern. The pattern doesn’t quite touch the .5, AB retracement at C, and BC projection at 2 but very close and probably impossible to terminate exactly at all ratios in relation to the pattern.

Now to the CD leg. So the pattern was projected to finish with a BD extension of 2. Let’s have a look at 2 and see how it influences the CD leg
The square root of 2 = 1.414 - the inverse of 1.414 = .707
The 1.414 is the AB=CD pattern of the CD leg (1:1.414 and the .707 is the retracements of XA that forms the B point of the CD leg.

I guess the juries out in respect of whether this pattern did in fact complete in perfect harmony. However if you read about the discovery of a new harmonic pattern involving these ratios elsewhere, everyone following on Stockopedia will know different.

Looking at the TR-1’s for Inmarsat (LON:ISAT) we will find some unusual activity and recording took place on the 14th and 15th December 2017
14th December Deutsche Bank AG notified an interest of 3.57% from a position of being below notifiable threshold, this announcement was made public 19th December.
15th December the position was reversed however the announcement was not made public until 16th February. I have read several discussions on this site regarding regulation in this country and I couldn’t agree more the FCA needs to pull its finger out. (I may be missing something here regarding the TR-1).
It could be argued that this pattern also failed however in my view it set up an AB=CD reversal pattern on support levels @400 & 360 (Pink horizontal lines on the chart) that were identified as short targets in the previous post.

Where to next? The wolves will be easier to see now that the moon shines brightly again. (there was no Full Moon in February) Bid speculation should be supportive of price for the time being.

More interestingly can we add a new Harmonic Pattern to ones previously discovered?

aflash

ISAT (Inmarsat) reached 1153p on Dec 30 2015 after becoming popular by pinpointing the flightpath of missing Malaysia Airlines' MH370.
Since then it has been in steep decline.
We are told the bidders bought their first stake that year. Say they bought around 800p. They are not going to pay more than that for the whole company. The previous High was 810 in June 2012.
The intersection of lines joining previous Highs gives a Support\Resistance line around 732p.

6th Jul '18

Echostar (NSQ:SATS) made offer 4 July 532p so presumably 'Put up or Shut up' requirements met. Price movements suggest market does not believe they will increase offer. SATS up slightly yesterday, maybe more today.

An update on ISAT, State of the markets, Easyjet and Debenhams

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Taff6

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