Stock Picks | Fifty Day Positions - W47 - Nov 2020

16th Nov '20 by HollandSmith

19 comments 1187 reads

Good Morning Monday,

Top list of positions which are showing signs of advancing in price in the next *50 days.

********************** Published on Thursday 19 November ***********************

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********************** Published on Wednesday 18 November ***********************

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********************** Published on Tuesday 17 November ***********************

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********************** Published on Monday 16 November ***********************

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Hoping for brilliant things to happen, so join me in the comments!

Hi Stockopedia, its Dan here.

You may be familiar with my screen name as been the first comment of the day on the SCVR; trying to capture the most recent RNS snippets and links. They have +1000 combined thumbs up in November, which I would like to cash in to fund the creditably for this project.

As written before on the SCVR, I use automation to make life easier and always drive for simplicity. My previous roles in marketing could be summed up as understanding complex, dynamic, evolving data type problems and organising it down to a linear set of rules to then build it back more efficiently. And as a creature of habit, this is the same approach I have used to understand the stock market.

The automation I have written scans the market for everything possible to buy in an ISA, scores the historic price behaviour via the chart, and produces a ranked list which “the code believes” are most likely to advance in the next 50 trading days.

This framework allows me to daily analyse the top 50 charts from the output with the intension to place a position.

*DYOR - Everything I purchase is intended to be held for 50 trading days, but can range from 1 to 100 days depending on updated price information. I sometimes force trades, do not wait for breakouts and place positions before expected RNS. The list may contain low and high volatile positions - as well as low and high spread positions. Trading is less about knowing what to do and more about knowing what not to do - I accept the risk.

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Good morning Monday! Below covers todays regulatory and potentially price-sensitive announcements.

// Vodafone (LON:VOD) - £43250m
// Half-year Report
// Group revenue declined by 2.3% to €21.4 billion, as good underlying momentum was offset by the effects of COVID-19 on roaming and visitor revenue, as well as lower handset sales

// Kingspan (LON:KGP) - £14660m
// Trading Statement
// Sales in the nine month period to 30 September were €3.27bn, down 5% on the same period in the prior year with sales growth of 1% in the third quarter.

// Stenprop (LON:STP) - £370m
// Acquisition of two multi-let industrial estates
// Belmont Industrial Estate on the outskirts of Durham, was acquired for £11.2 million
Phoenix Industrial Estate in West Bromwich for £2.8 million

// Smiths (LON:SMIN) - £5960m
// Smiths Group Q1 Trading Statement
// Revenue for the three months ended 31 October for Continuing Operations was down 2%

// Diploma (LON:DPLM) - £2860m
// Final Results
// Reported revenues down 1%

// Softcat (LON:SCT) - £2220m
// Q1 2021 Trading Update
// The Company performed well during the Period and delivered year-on-year growth in revenue, gross profit and operating profit while also achieving its recruitment targets.

// Kainos (LON:KNOS) - £1450m
// Kainos Group plc Interim results
// Revenue growth of 23% (19% organic) to £107.2 million (H1 20: £86.9 million)

// Proton Motor Power Systems (LON:PPS) - £390m
// New Order
// The system will be installed as a UPS system within road tunnels.

// Remote Monitored Systems (LON:RMS) - £80m
// Pharm 2 Farm Update
// P2F is continuing to receive enquiries from prospective distributors and purchasers for its viricidal mask and now anticipates that future demand for its mask may outstrip the production line capacity of five million viricidal face masks per month.

// Venture Life (LON:VLG) - £70m
// Results of in-vitro clinical trial published
// Scientists at Cardiff University concluded that Venture Life's two CPC based mouthwashes eradicated the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) virus completely (>5log reduction, equivalent to 99.999%) within a 30 second exposure.

// Eenergy (LON:EAAS) - £10m
// New Contract Win
// The Group's subsidiary, eLight U.K, secured the £1m contract to install LED Lighting at four schools for a UK multi-academy trust. The revenue will be recognised as the projects are installed, which is expected to be completed by 31 December 2020.

Good morning! Below covers todays regulatory and potentially price-sensitive announcements.

// Experian (LON:EXPN) - £36550m// Half-year Report
// H1 organic revenue in North America and Latin America +7% and +5% respectively. Organic revenue in UK and Ireland and EMEA/Asia Pacific of (12)% and (18)% respectively.

// Imperial Brands (LON:IMB) - £17560m// Final Results
// Adjusted operating profit down 4.8% with Europe down 5.9%; Americas down 3.4%; AAA down 8.7%

// HomeServe (LON:HSV) - £4160m// Half-year Report
// Revenue growth of 17%, driven by strong growth in North America and the inclusion of revenue from eLocal (79% acquired in November 2019 to create a profitable entry to Home Experts in America)

// Easyjet (LON:EZJ) - £3550m// Final Results
// Total revenue decreased by 52.9% to £3,009 million (2019: £6,385 million)

// Assura (LON:AGR) - £2020m// Interim Results 2020
// Portfolio is up 6% to £2,259 million as at 30 September 2020 (March 2020: £2,139 million)

// Blue Prism (LON:PRSM) - £1510m// Trading Statement
// We are encouraged by the positive momentum seen in the second half and see a strong pipeline, which closed significantly stronger than at the same point last year. While the macro environment remains uncertain, we remain confident in our ability to deliver good long-term growth.

// £N91 - £1440m// Half-year Report and Dividend Declaration
// Assets under management increased 15% to £119.0 billion, though average AUM decreased by 3%.

// Energean (LON:ENOG) - £1250m// Trading Statement & Operational Update
// Following completion of the deal, approximately 70% of our future production will be sold under long-term gas sales agreements

// Polypipe (LON:PLP) - £1180m// Trading Update
// Sustained recovery with Group revenue for the four months ended 31 October 2020 ahead of the Board's expectations and only 1.5% lower than the prior year at £156.1m (2019: £158.4m) with continued improvement throughout the period

// Telecom Plus (LON:TEP) - £1080m// Half-Year Results
// Revenue down 1% to £349m, primarily due to lower energy prices (2019: £353m)

// Johnson Service (LON:JSG) - £530m// Trading Update & Management Actions
// Encouragingly, in our Workwear division, which serves both industrial and food processing customers, volumes have continued to increase with the 6% year on year reduction reported in August improving to a 2% reduction at the end of September and being slightly ahead of pre-COVID levels by the end of October.

// Focusrite (LON:TUNE) - £530m// Final Results for the Year Ended 31 August 2020
// Group revenue, including acquisitions, grew by 53.7% to £130.1 million (FY19: £84.7 million)

// dotDigital (LON:DOTD) - £430m// Final Results
// The Group achieved continuing operations revenue growth of 12% (2019: 15%), which delivered record overall revenues of £47.4m, despite the impact of the pandemic in the fourth quarter of our financial year. The quality of the revenue growth is evidenced by increased recurring revenues of 91%. The Group continued to grow internationally with revenues accounting for 31% of the total (2019: 29%).

// Ocean Outdoor (LON:OOUT) - £330m// Q3 2020 Trading Update
// Group revenue of £20.99m, down 36% for the quarter (2019: £32.91m)

// Scapa (LON:SCPA) - £290m// Interim Results
// Revenue fell by 24.1% to £122.0m (2019: £160.8m).

// Idox (LON:IDOX) - £230m// Year End Trading Update
// Revenue increased by 4% to £68.0m (2019: £65.5m)

// Eurocell (LON:ECEL) - £210m// Trading Update - Improved Outlook
// The repair, maintenance and improvement (RMI) market has been stronger than we anticipated when announcing our Half Year results in September, with housing market activity also now increasing, supported by high levels of mortgage approvals.

// McKay Securities (LON:MCKS) - £200m// Half-year Results
// Adjusted profit before tax up 3.7% to £5.27 million (30 September 2019: £5.08 million)

// Schroder Real Estate Investment Trust (LON:SREI) - £180m// Interim Results for the Period Ended 30 September 2020

// £G4M - £140m// Interim Results
// Revenue increased by £20.8m (42%) during the Period to £70.2m, with international revenue growth of 36%, up from 33% growth achieved in H1 FY20.

// AFH Financial (LON:AFHP) - £140m// Pre-close Trading Update and Notice of Results
// Trading continues both in line with management expectations and with the Trading Update reported on 30 September 2020. As announced at that time, staff and clients have continued to adapt well to the revised working practices and, where possible, staff have continued to work from home in line with Government advice. Careful cash management remains a top priority, and the Company's cash balance as at 31 October 2020 was £13m.

// Oxford Metrics (LON:OMG) - £110m// Vicon Contract Win

// Palace Capital (LON:PCA) - £100m// Half-year Report
// 82% of all rents due on and since the September quarter day collected

// AdEPT Technology (LON:ADT) - £60m// Half-year Report
// Total revenue decreased by 7.6% to £28.5 million (2019: £30.8 million)

// £W7L - £50m// UK Retail Update
// announce that following a successful trial of an impulse range of products in 41 Tesco Express outlets, a range of 15 W7 cosmetics products will now be stocked in 209 Tesco Express stores from 18 November 2020.

// Intercede (LON:IGP) - £50m// Contract Win: Follow-on Purchase Order
// announce the receipt of a follow-on purchase order totaling $2.8m

// Genedrive (LON:GDR) - £30m// Final Results
// Revenue for the year to 30 June 2020 in line with expectations at £1.1m (2019: £2.4m)

// SysGroup (LON:SYS)1 - £20m// Interim Results
// Revenue and adjusted profitability have recovered substantially since Q1. Our sales pipeline remains strong in the UK and is improving in the USA. These trends provide grounds for optimism. However, continued uncertainty over the medium- and longer-term impact of Covid-19 on the major economies in which System 1 operates, heightened by renewed "lock-down" measures, leads us to continue to suspend financial guidance.

// Petra Diamonds (LON:PDL) - £10m// Final Results for the Year ended 30 June 2020
// Revenue down 36% to US$295.8 million (FY 2019: US$463.6 million)

// Windar Photonics (LON:WPHO) - £10m// Half-year Report
// More importantly, our order intake in 2020 has now reached our net revenue break-even level of c.€3 million. Whilst we expect to be able to only execute approximately 40% of these orders in 2020 due to the ongoing Covid pandemic, the Board still expects to see an improvement in our overall financial results for 2020 compared to last year.

// Velocity Composites (LON:VEL) - £10m// Trading Statement
// The Company anticipates that sales revenues for the year to 31 October 2020 will be approximately £13.6m (FY2019: £24.2m)

// Hibernia REIT (LON:HBRN) - £0m// HALF YEARLY FINANCIAL REPORT

Good morning! Below covers todays regulatory and potentially price-sensitive announcements.

// SSE (LON:SSE) - £14040m// Half-year Report
// Adjusted operating profit down 15% to £418.3m / reported operating profit up 183% to £985.1m.

// Spirax-Sarco Engineering (LON:SPX) - £8790m// Trading Update
//The Group operating profit margin was higher in the four months to the end of October than in the first half of the year, supported by increased sales and continued cost containment actions. In the ten months to the end of October, the Group operating profit margin remained slightly below the same period in the prior year.

// British Land (LON:BLND) - £4740m// Half-year Report
// Underlying EPS reduced 34.8% primarily reflecting an increase in provisions for rent receivables

// Safestore Holdings (LON:SAFE) - £1720m// Fourth quarter trading update
// · Strong occupancy performance with group like-for-like closing occupancy of 80.8% (up 3.2ppts on Q4 2019).

// Breedon (LON:BREE) - £1380m// Trading Update
// The Group delivered revenues for the first 10 months of the year of £750 million (2019: £800 million)

// Micro Focus International (LON:MCRO) - £910m// Trading Statement
// Revenue of approximately $3.0bn for FY20, which is in line with management expectations. This represents a decline of approximately 10% on a constant currency ("CCY") basis when compared to FY19.

// Halfords (LON:HFD) - £520m// Interim Results: Financial Year 2021
// Group revenue growth of +9.6% and profit before tax of £56.0m

// Speedy Hire (LON:SDY) - £340m// Half Year Results
// Revenue (excluding disposals) for the period to 30 September 2020 decreased by 20.5% to £162.3m (2019: £204.2m), following a reduction in activity levels during the first COVID-19 lockdown in the UK and Ireland.

// ASA International (LON:ASAI) - £220m// October 2020 business update

// International Personal Finance (LON:IPF) - £180m// October 2020 Trading Update
// We continued to deliver a strong level of collections effectiveness, rising to 97% of pre-Covid expectations in October.

// Tatton Asset Management (LON:TAM) - £160m
// Interim results for the six months to 30 Sept 2020// Group revenue for the period increased 12.6% to £10.956 million (2019: £9.729 million).

// Best Of The Best (LON:BOTB) - £140m// Trading Update and Update on FSP

// AEW UK REIT (LON:AEWU) - £120m// Half Yearly Results
// Net Asset Value ('NAV') of £147.24 million and of 92.73 pence per share ('pps') as at 30 September 2020 (31 March 2020: £147.86 million and 93.13 pps).

// JPEL Private Equity (LON:JPEL) - £120m// Statement re Company Update

// Begbies Traynor (LON:BEG) - £110m// Trading Update and Notice of Half Year Results
// Group revenue in the period grew by c.10%, with adjusted profit before tax growing by c.25%

// Cerillion (LON:CER) - £90m// New Three Year Managed Services Contract
// announce a new three year managed services contract with Scarlet, a triple-play communications services provider (CSP) in Belgium, part of the Proximus Group.

// IronRidge Resources (LON:IRR) - £60m// Chad Gold Projects Renewed for a Further 4 Years
// The Cape Coast Lithium portfolio covers some 684km2 and includes the newly discovered Ewoyaa Lithium Project with a maiden Mineral Resource estimate of 14.5Mt at 1.31% Li2O in the inferred and indicated category including 4.5Mt @ 1.39% Li2O in the indicated category (reported in accordance with the JORC Code).

// Wynnstay (LON:WYN) - £60m// Trading Update & Organisational Change
// Overall trading since June, when the Group reported interim results, has been stronger than anticipated, especially in September and October. This is across both the Agriculture and Specialist Agricultural Merchanting Divisions. As a result, the Board now expects that underlying Group pre-tax profit* for FY 2020 will be significantly ahead of current market forecasts.

// DP Eurasia NV (LON:DPEU) - £50m// Trading Update
// Group system sales increased 11.8%, despite Covid-19 related operational constraints and increased competition in Russia due to aggregators

// Finncap (LON:FCAP) - £30m// Interim Results and Interim Dividend
// Revenue up 44% to £20.5m (H1 20: £14.2m)

// Mhp Se (LON:MHPC) - £0m// Financial Results for the Q3 and 9M 2020

Good morning! Below covers todays regulatory and potentially price-sensitive announcements.

// Halma (LON:HLMA) - £8920m// HALF YEAR RESULTS 2020/21
// Revenue and Adjusted Profit before Taxation declined by 5%

// Kingfisher (LON:KGF) - £6320m// Q3 Trading Update
// Q3 20/21 total Group sales of £3.5 billion, up 17.6% in constant currency; Group LFL sales up 17.4%

// Royal Mail (LON:RMG) - £2860m// Half-year Report
// Group revenue up 9.8%, driven by strong parcel growth at both Royal Mail and GLS.

// Londonmetric Property (LON:LMP) - £2140m// Half-year Report
// The composition of our £2.4 billion portfolio continues to be influenced by the trends that originate outside real estate but that are fundamentally shaping its future.

// Investec (LON:INVP) - £2060m// Half-year Report to 30 September 2020
// As a result, group adjusted operating profit of £142.5 million was 48.4% behind the prior period and adjusted basic earnings per share of 11.2p was 50.0% behind the prior period, albeit ahead of pre-close guidance.

// Grainger (LON:GRI) - £2030m// Full-Year Audited Financial Results
// Average occupancy for the year remained high at 95%, rent collection remained robust at 97% on average and we have continued to deliver rental growth.

// Syncona (LON:SYNC) - £1770m// Half-year Report
// Net assets of £1,366.7 million (31 March 2020: £1,246.5 million)

// Euromoney Institutional Investor (LON:ERM) - £1090m// Final Results
// During the year Group subscription revenue grew by +3%

// CMC Markets (LON:CMCX) - £1080m// Interim results
// Record H1 trading performance, with net operating income up £128.6 million (126%) to £230.9 million (H1 2020: £102.3 million)

// Polar Capital Holdings (LON:POLR) - £600m// Unaudited interim results
// Assets under Management ("AuM") at 30 September 2020 £16.4bn (31 March 2020: £12.2bn) and at 31 October 2020 £16.9bn

// Mitie (LON:MTO) - £480m// Interim Results
// Revenue from continuing operations of £972.4m, 9.8% lower than the prior year

// Next Fifteen Communications (LON:NFC) - £460m// Trading Statement
// For the three-month period to 31^st October 2020, revenues are
expected to be up by approximately 7% compared with the same period
last year and the operating profit margin has also shown strong growth
compared with last year.

// Nichols (LON:NICL) - £440m// Trading Update
// As a result, total Group revenue in the period decreased by 16.5% to £91.7m against the prior year.

// Keller (LON:KLR) - £440m// Trading Update
// The Group expects to outperform current market
expectations for 2020 as a result of better than expected trading in the
second half to date, specifically in North America, with full year
performance now anticipated to be at similar levels to 2019.

// Naked Wines (LON:WINE) - £360m// Half-year Report
// H1 FY21 revenues of £157.1m +80% vs H1 FY20

// Headlam (LON:HEAD) - £280m// Trading Update
// Revenue for the four months to 31 October 2020 was down only 1.2% on the same period in the prior year, with November 2020 currently ahead of last year despite the lockdown in England and other restrictions in the rest of the UK.

// Atalaya Mining (LON:ATYM) - £270m// Q3 2020 Financial Results
// Revenues for Q3 2020 increased to €65.8 million
compared with €44.4 million for the three months ended 30 September 2019
("Q3 2019"). The increase was mainly due to higher concentrate sales
volumes in the period following the completion of the plant expansion at
Proyecto Riotinto, in addition to higher copper prices.

// Macfarlane (LON:MACF) - £150m// Trading Update
// Sales revenue in the 4 months to 31 October 2020 was better than expected and has grown by 4% compared to the same period last year. This represents a strong recovery from Q2 when sales decreased by 5.2% due to the impact of the Covid-19 lockdown.//

// Charles Stanley (LON:CAY) - £150m// Interim Results
// Total revenues were 4.1% lower at £81.9 million (H1 2020: £85.4 million)

// accesso Technology (LON:ACSO) - £150m// Full Year Trading Update
// As announced in its half year report on 16 September, accesso delivered revenue for 1H 2020 of $24.6m, ahead of its revised expectations.

// Somero Enterprises Inc (LON:SOM) - £130m// Trading Statement
// The Board is pleased to report that as a result of positive
trading momentum from the end of H1 2020 continuing through H2 2020, it
now expects to exceed its previous reinstated expectations for FY 2020.

// Zoetic International (LON:ZOE) - £80m// Trading Update
// As previously reported with Zoetic online sales, Chills online orders are showing very positive results. New orders were up 190% in October, compared to September, which gives strong credence to the fact that the brand is really starting to catch traction online.//

// SRT Marine Systems (LON:SRT) - £60m// Half-year Report// Despite global lockdowns, throughout the period revenues were 7% higher than the same period last year at £3.8m, with an increased gross profit margin of 39%.

// Sabien Technology (LON:SNT) - £0m// Final Results & Update on Proposed Acquisition

HollandSmith

16th Nov '20

Positions in List

CMC Markets (LON:CMCX)

Apax Global Alpha (LON:APAX)

Antofagasta (LON:ANTO)

ULS Technology (LON:ULS)

Oryx International Growth Fund (LON:OIG)

Drax (LON:DRX)

Looking at

AEW UK REIT (LON:AEWU)

Blackrock World Mining Trust (LON:BRWM)

ContourGlobal (LON:GLO)

Indivior (LON:INDV)

IS MSCI TAIWAN UCITS USD (DIST) ETF (LON:ITWN)

Good morning Monday! Below covers todays regulatory and potentially price-sensitive announcements.
// Vodafone (LON:VOD) - £43250m // Half-year Report // Group revenue declined by 2.3% to €21.4 billion, as good underlying momentum was offset by the effects of COVID-19 on roaming and visitor revenue, as well as lower handset sales
// Kingspan (LON:KGP) - £14660m // Trading Statement // Sales in the nine month period to 30 September were €3.27bn, down 5% on the same period in the prior year with sales growth of 1% in the third quarter.
// Stenprop (LON:STP) - £370m // Acquisition of two multi-let industrial estates // Belmont Industrial Estate on the outskirts of Durham, was acquired for £11.2 million Phoenix Industrial Estate in West Bromwich for £2.8 million
// Smiths (LON:SMIN) - £5960m // Smiths Group Q1 Trading Statement // Revenue for the three months ended 31 October for Continuing Operations was down 2%
// Diploma (LON:DPLM) - £2860m // Final Results // Reported revenues down 1%
// Softcat (LON:SCT) - £2220m // Q1 2021 Trading Update // The Company performed well during the Period and delivered year-on-year growth in revenue, gross profit and operating profit while also achieving its recruitment targets.
// Kainos (LON:KNOS) - £1450m // Kainos Group plc Interim results // Revenue growth of 23% (19% organic) to £107.2 million (H1 20: £86.9 million)
// Proton Motor Power Systems (LON:PPS) - £390m // New Order // The system will be installed as a UPS system within road tunnels.
// Remote Monitored Systems (LON:RMS) - £80m // Pharm 2 Farm Update // P2F is continuing to receive enquiries from prospective distributors and purchasers for its viricidal mask and now anticipates that future demand for its mask may outstrip the production line capacity of five million viricidal face masks per month.
// Venture Life (LON:VLG) - £70m // Results of in-vitro clinical trial published // Scientists at Cardiff University concluded that Venture Life's two CPC based mouthwashes eradicated the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) virus completely (>5log reduction, equivalent to 99.999%) within a 30 second exposure.
// Eenergy (LON:EAAS) - £10m // New Contract Win // The Group's subsidiary, eLight U.K, secured the £1m contract to install LED Lighting at four schools for a UK multi-academy trust. The revenue will be recognised as the projects are installed, which is expected to be completed by 31 December 2020.

Bluesky Ventura

Hi DAN,

Glad to see Cmc Markets (LON:CMCX) on your list. The results for the six months ending 30 September 2020 will be announced on 19 November 2020.

more details about Cmc Markets (LON:CMCX) is cover by my blog https://www.stockopedia.com/co...

Fingers crossed.

BSV

Snowbum

Superb Dan, many thanks for posting this data.

Nick Ray

Taleb calls the stock market "anti-inductive".

Usually with a system, if you observe it and deduce the rules you can build a model and use it to make predictions. This is the basis of engineering and science generally.

However the stock market (almost uniquely) is a system created from intelligent agents which observe the system that they are themselves part of and try to take advantage of it. As a result the market is aware of any rules which it appears to be obeying and changes to invalidate them.

Even the probability distributions of things like price changes are weird. They look vaguely log-normal but fail to converge when you compute the standard deviation or the mean for the whole population. Taleb covers this very well, but the conclusion is that the "fat tails" ("black swans") completely swamp your ability to extract a consistent edge (positive mean return) from the market.

andrewdb

There are some effects that seem to endure

- momentum
- defensives
- 10 month rule (=momentum)
- seasonal effects
- dividend yield on the index (=sort of mean reversion)

... but they are _very_ hard to make money out of.
Good luck.

17th Nov '20

Hi Nick,

Completely agree in with the theory - and can tell your extremely knowledgeable in this - but I feel you may have given an over academic comment to something which is pretty basic at its core.

My work is all about automation to present decisions - much in the same way people use a screener - my list and score focuses my attention to my preferred position entry - which allows more time to analyse the fundamentals, story, endorsements and news behind the chart.

The system doesn’t produce a perfect linear score, use Rs - highs or moving averages, wouldn’t be able to be programmed into an automatic ‘expert advisor’ and I can always find something which doesn’t hold the almighty privilege to be included in the days list. But this unemotional weapon of choice has allowed me to peacefully work the market without getting lost in a game of theory.

Kind regards
Dan

Good morning! Below covers todays regulatory and potentially price-sensitive announcements.
// Experian (LON:EXPN) - £36550m// Half-year Report // H1 organic revenue in North America and Latin America +7% and +5% respectively. Organic revenue in UK and Ireland and EMEA/Asia Pacific of (12)% and (18)% respectively.
// Imperial Brands (LON:IMB) - £17560m// Final Results // Adjusted operating profit down 4.8% with Europe down 5.9%; Americas down 3.4%; AAA down 8.7%
// HomeServe (LON:HSV) - £4160m// Half-year Report // Revenue growth of 17%, driven by strong growth in North America and the inclusion of revenue from eLocal (79% acquired in November 2019 to create a profitable entry to Home Experts in America)
// Easyjet (LON:EZJ) - £3550m// Final Results // Total revenue decreased by 52.9% to £3,009 million (2019: £6,385 million)
// Assura (LON:AGR) - £2020m// Interim Results 2020 // Portfolio is up 6% to £2,259 million as at 30 September 2020 (March 2020: £2,139 million)
// Blue Prism (LON:PRSM) - £1510m// Trading Statement // We are encouraged by the positive momentum seen in the second half and see a strong pipeline, which closed significantly stronger than at the same point last year. While the macro environment remains uncertain, we remain confident in our ability to deliver good long-term growth.
// £N91 - £1440m// Half-year Report and Dividend Declaration // Assets under management increased 15% to £119.0 billion, though average AUM decreased by 3%.
// Energean (LON:ENOG) - £1250m// Trading Statement & Operational Update // Following completion of the deal, approximately 70% of our future production will be sold under long-term gas sales agreements
// Polypipe (LON:PLP) - £1180m// Trading Update // Sustained recovery with Group revenue for the four months ended 31 October 2020 ahead of the Board's expectations and only 1.5% lower than the prior year at £156.1m (2019: £158.4m) with continued improvement throughout the period
// Telecom Plus (LON:TEP) - £1080m// Half-Year Results // Revenue down 1% to £349m, primarily due to lower energy prices (2019: £353m)
// Johnson Service (LON:JSG) - £530m// Trading Update & Management Actions // Encouragingly, in our Workwear division, which serves both industrial and food processing customers, volumes have continued to increase with the 6% year on year reduction reported in August improving to a 2% reduction at the end of September and being slightly ahead of pre-COVID levels by the end of October.
// Focusrite (LON:TUNE) - £530m// Final Results for the Year Ended 31 August 2020 // Group revenue, including acquisitions, grew by 53.7% to £130.1 million (FY19: £84.7 million)
// dotDigital (LON:DOTD) - £430m// Final Results // The Group achieved continuing operations revenue growth of 12% (2019: 15%), which delivered record overall revenues of £47.4m, despite the impact of the pandemic in the fourth quarter of our financial year. The quality of the revenue growth is evidenced by increased recurring revenues of 91%. The Group continued to grow internationally with revenues accounting for 31% of the total (2019: 29%).
// Ocean Outdoor (LON:OOUT) - £330m// Q3 2020 Trading Update // Group revenue of £20.99m, down 36% for the quarter (2019: £32.91m)
// Scapa (LON:SCPA) - £290m// Interim Results // Revenue fell by 24.1% to £122.0m (2019: £160.8m).
// Idox (LON:IDOX) - £230m// Year End Trading Update // Revenue increased by 4% to £68.0m (2019: £65.5m)
// Eurocell (LON:ECEL) - £210m// Trading Update - Improved Outlook // The repair, maintenance and improvement (RMI) market has been stronger than we anticipated when announcing our Half Year results in September, with housing market activity also now increasing, supported by high levels of mortgage approvals.
// McKay Securities (LON:MCKS) - £200m// Half-year Results // Adjusted profit before tax up 3.7% to £5.27 million (30 September 2019: £5.08 million)
// Schroder Real Estate Investment Trust (LON:SREI) - £180m// Interim Results for the Period Ended 30 September 2020
// £G4M - £140m// Interim Results // Revenue increased by £20.8m (42%) during the Period to £70.2m, with international revenue growth of 36%, up from 33% growth achieved in H1 FY20.
// AFH Financial (LON:AFHP) - £140m// Pre-close Trading Update and Notice of Results // Trading continues both in line with management expectations and with the Trading Update reported on 30 September 2020. As announced at that time, staff and clients have continued to adapt well to the revised working practices and, where possible, staff have continued to work from home in line with Government advice. Careful cash management remains a top priority, and the Company's cash balance as at 31 October 2020 was £13m.
// Oxford Metrics (LON:OMG) - £110m// Vicon Contract Win
// Palace Capital (LON:PCA) - £100m// Half-year Report // 82% of all rents due on and since the September quarter day collected
// AdEPT Technology (LON:ADT) - £60m// Half-year Report // Total revenue decreased by 7.6% to £28.5 million (2019: £30.8 million)
// £W7L - £50m// UK Retail Update // announce that following a successful trial of an impulse range of products in 41 Tesco Express outlets, a range of 15 W7 cosmetics products will now be stocked in 209 Tesco Express stores from 18 November 2020.
// Intercede (LON:IGP) - £50m// Contract Win: Follow-on Purchase Order // announce the receipt of a follow-on purchase order totaling $2.8m
// Genedrive (LON:GDR) - £30m// Final Results // Revenue for the year to 30 June 2020 in line with expectations at £1.1m (2019: £2.4m)
// SysGroup (LON:SYS)1 - £20m// Interim Results // Revenue and adjusted profitability have recovered substantially since Q1. Our sales pipeline remains strong in the UK and is improving in the USA. These trends provide grounds for optimism. However, continued uncertainty over the medium- and longer-term impact of Covid-19 on the major economies in which System 1 operates, heightened by renewed "lock-down" measures, leads us to continue to suspend financial guidance.
// Petra Diamonds (LON:PDL) - £10m// Final Results for the Year ended 30 June 2020 // Revenue down 36% to US$295.8 million (FY 2019: US$463.6 million)
// Windar Photonics (LON:WPHO) - £10m// Half-year Report // More importantly, our order intake in 2020 has now reached our net revenue break-even level of c.€3 million. Whilst we expect to be able to only execute approximately 40% of these orders in 2020 due to the ongoing Covid pandemic, the Board still expects to see an improvement in our overall financial results for 2020 compared to last year.
// Velocity Composites (LON:VEL) - £10m// Trading Statement // The Company anticipates that sales revenues for the year to 31 October 2020 will be approximately £13.6m (FY2019: £24.2m)
// Hibernia REIT (LON:HBRN) - £0m// HALF YEARLY FINANCIAL REPORT

dfs12

Stonking work. Loving this. Thanks so much for posting. Keep it up.

Logical David

Hi Dan, I have stumbled across your article called Fifty Day Positions which I find intriguing. One of the shares which I own and which appears on your list is City of London Investment Group. This share has gone sideways for the last six months and also its 200 day MA is drifting downwards, so I was planning to sell it at the end of this week. However, your charts suggest it is due a breakout/advancement in price. I am interested to know whether this forecast by you and your algorithms is due to the share price having moved north of its 50 day MA or are there other reasons why you believe it is a Status 2 High Line??

Also, could you please tell me what is the difference between a Status 1 High Break and a Status 2 High line. Is there much difference??

Jack Brumby

Interesting to see a bit more of the 50 day trading process, Dan. Two questions:

1. What do 'High Line' and 'High Break' refer to? Maybe this is obvious to others, and

2. The score out of a hundred to the right hand side - am I right in thinking this is your own technical momentum composite score rather than one of Stockopedia's Ranks?

Thanks for posting

18th Nov '20

Morning David,

The system has a unique way viewing some charts and loves forcing trades. I roughly have tried to illustrate the pattern that it’s picked up on City of London Investment (LON:CLIG)

5fb4b73f621f2Screenshot_2020-11-17_at_15

Do I agree with it?
Its 5 something am so if I squint in a way - it the looks magical! But because it’s not obvious, maybe I would disagree with the code on this one. Pareto is very present in these lists as at anyone given time - only around 10 of them excite me enough to place a position - and this isn’t in my current personal picks.

So, maybe it’s found a repeatable pattern or maybe it’s just trying to be artistic - definitely trying to force the trade - but I will still be watching how this plays out regardless.

If you chose to hold or sell - I wish you the best.

Thanks
Dan

Hi Jack,

There are four titles I use - in order of importance, they are - High break, High line, Low line, Low break.

Behind these titles is a ‘borderline price’. Depending on the borderlines positions to the close/live price, these different titles allows a visual gauge to see which charts are peaking their heads above/below the resistance/support price. I must admit that I’m still not fully happy with this part of my process at the moment, so I definitely use it as a gauge rather than a super meaningful title.

And Yup - this is a home-brewed score. Its the part which delivers the goods in terms of finding my overall and ideal entry/exit locations. As much as I have taken inspiration from the momentum rank, it doesn’t use the same instruments internally. It’s also has been engineered to react negatively to price exhaustion, something I believe catches out a few new users out when learning about momentum trading.

Thanks for for the comment!
Dan

Good morning! Below covers todays regulatory and potentially price-sensitive announcements.
// SSE (LON:SSE) - £14040m// Half-year Report // Adjusted operating profit down 15% to £418.3m / reported operating profit up 183% to £985.1m.
// Spirax-Sarco Engineering (LON:SPX) - £8790m// Trading Update //The Group operating profit margin was higher in the four months to the end of October than in the first half of the year, supported by increased sales and continued cost containment actions. In the ten months to the end of October, the Group operating profit margin remained slightly below the same period in the prior year.
// British Land (LON:BLND) - £4740m// Half-year Report // Underlying EPS reduced 34.8% primarily reflecting an increase in provisions for rent receivables
// Safestore Holdings (LON:SAFE) - £1720m// Fourth quarter trading update // · Strong occupancy performance with group like-for-like closing occupancy of 80.8% (up 3.2ppts on Q4 2019).
// Breedon (LON:BREE) - £1380m// Trading Update // The Group delivered revenues for the first 10 months of the year of £750 million (2019: £800 million)
// Micro Focus International (LON:MCRO) - £910m// Trading Statement // Revenue of approximately $3.0bn for FY20, which is in line with management expectations. This represents a decline of approximately 10% on a constant currency ("CCY") basis when compared to FY19.
// Halfords (LON:HFD) - £520m// Interim Results: Financial Year 2021 // Group revenue growth of +9.6% and profit before tax of £56.0m
// Speedy Hire (LON:SDY) - £340m// Half Year Results // Revenue (excluding disposals) for the period to 30 September 2020 decreased by 20.5% to £162.3m (2019: £204.2m), following a reduction in activity levels during the first COVID-19 lockdown in the UK and Ireland.
// ASA International (LON:ASAI) - £220m// October 2020 business update
// International Personal Finance (LON:IPF) - £180m// October 2020 Trading Update // We continued to deliver a strong level of collections effectiveness, rising to 97% of pre-Covid expectations in October.
// Tatton Asset Management (LON:TAM) - £160m // Interim results for the six months to 30 Sept 2020// Group revenue for the period increased 12.6% to £10.956 million (2019: £9.729 million).
// Best Of The Best (LON:BOTB) - £140m// Trading Update and Update on FSP
// AEW UK REIT (LON:AEWU) - £120m// Half Yearly Results // Net Asset Value ('NAV') of £147.24 million and of 92.73 pence per share ('pps') as at 30 September 2020 (31 March 2020: £147.86 million and 93.13 pps).
// JPEL Private Equity (LON:JPEL) - £120m// Statement re Company Update
// Begbies Traynor (LON:BEG) - £110m// Trading Update and Notice of Half Year Results // Group revenue in the period grew by c.10%, with adjusted profit before tax growing by c.25%
// Cerillion (LON:CER) - £90m// New Three Year Managed Services Contract // announce a new three year managed services contract with Scarlet, a triple-play communications services provider (CSP) in Belgium, part of the Proximus Group.
// IronRidge Resources (LON:IRR) - £60m// Chad Gold Projects Renewed for a Further 4 Years // The Cape Coast Lithium portfolio covers some 684km2 and includes the newly discovered Ewoyaa Lithium Project with a maiden Mineral Resource estimate of 14.5Mt at 1.31% Li2O in the inferred and indicated category including 4.5Mt @ 1.39% Li2O in the indicated category (reported in accordance with the JORC Code).
// Wynnstay (LON:WYN) - £60m// Trading Update & Organisational Change // Overall trading since June, when the Group reported interim results, has been stronger than anticipated, especially in September and October. This is across both the Agriculture and Specialist Agricultural Merchanting Divisions. As a result, the Board now expects that underlying Group pre-tax profit* for FY 2020 will be significantly ahead of current market forecasts.
// DP Eurasia NV (LON:DPEU) - £50m// Trading Update // Group system sales increased 11.8%, despite Covid-19 related operational constraints and increased competition in Russia due to aggregators
// Finncap (LON:FCAP) - £30m// Interim Results and Interim Dividend // Revenue up 44% to £20.5m (H1 20: £14.2m)
// Mhp Se (LON:MHPC) - £0m// Financial Results for the Q3 and 9M 2020

Many thanks Dan for your comprehensive explanation.

With City Of London Investment (LON:CLIG) only being a small holding in my portfolio (around 3% bought in August), the fact that the share has recently poked its head above the 50 Day MA parapet and the fact it is up +0.5% so far today, I shall put Pareto's Principle to the test. Watch this space over the next few weeks!!

19th Nov '20

Good morning! Below covers todays regulatory and potentially price-sensitive announcements.
// Halma (LON:HLMA) - £8920m// HALF YEAR RESULTS 2020/21 // Revenue and Adjusted Profit before Taxation declined by 5%
// Kingfisher (LON:KGF) - £6320m// Q3 Trading Update // Q3 20/21 total Group sales of £3.5 billion, up 17.6% in constant currency; Group LFL sales up 17.4%
// Royal Mail (LON:RMG) - £2860m// Half-year Report // Group revenue up 9.8%, driven by strong parcel growth at both Royal Mail and GLS.
// Londonmetric Property (LON:LMP) - £2140m// Half-year Report // The composition of our £2.4 billion portfolio continues to be influenced by the trends that originate outside real estate but that are fundamentally shaping its future.
// Investec (LON:INVP) - £2060m// Half-year Report to 30 September 2020 // As a result, group adjusted operating profit of £142.5 million was 48.4% behind the prior period and adjusted basic earnings per share of 11.2p was 50.0% behind the prior period, albeit ahead of pre-close guidance.
// Grainger (LON:GRI) - £2030m// Full-Year Audited Financial Results // Average occupancy for the year remained high at 95%, rent collection remained robust at 97% on average and we have continued to deliver rental growth.
// Syncona (LON:SYNC) - £1770m// Half-year Report // Net assets of £1,366.7 million (31 March 2020: £1,246.5 million)
// Euromoney Institutional Investor (LON:ERM) - £1090m// Final Results // During the year Group subscription revenue grew by +3%
// CMC Markets (LON:CMCX) - £1080m// Interim results // Record H1 trading performance, with net operating income up £128.6 million (126%) to £230.9 million (H1 2020: £102.3 million)
// Polar Capital Holdings (LON:POLR) - £600m// Unaudited interim results // Assets under Management ("AuM") at 30 September 2020 £16.4bn (31 March 2020: £12.2bn) and at 31 October 2020 £16.9bn
// Mitie (LON:MTO) - £480m// Interim Results // Revenue from continuing operations of £972.4m, 9.8% lower than the prior year
// Next Fifteen Communications (LON:NFC) - £460m// Trading Statement // For the three-month period to 31^st October 2020, revenues are expected to be up by approximately 7% compared with the same period last year and the operating profit margin has also shown strong growth compared with last year.
// Nichols (LON:NICL) - £440m// Trading Update // As a result, total Group revenue in the period decreased by 16.5% to £91.7m against the prior year.
// Keller (LON:KLR) - £440m// Trading Update // The Group expects to outperform current market expectations for 2020 as a result of better than expected trading in the second half to date, specifically in North America, with full year performance now anticipated to be at similar levels to 2019.
// Naked Wines (LON:WINE) - £360m// Half-year Report // H1 FY21 revenues of £157.1m +80% vs H1 FY20
// Headlam (LON:HEAD) - £280m// Trading Update // Revenue for the four months to 31 October 2020 was down only 1.2% on the same period in the prior year, with November 2020 currently ahead of last year despite the lockdown in England and other restrictions in the rest of the UK.
// Atalaya Mining (LON:ATYM) - £270m// Q3 2020 Financial Results // Revenues for Q3 2020 increased to €65.8 million compared with €44.4 million for the three months ended 30 September 2019 ("Q3 2019"). The increase was mainly due to higher concentrate sales volumes in the period following the completion of the plant expansion at Proyecto Riotinto, in addition to higher copper prices.
// Macfarlane (LON:MACF) - £150m// Trading Update // Sales revenue in the 4 months to 31 October 2020 was better than expected and has grown by 4% compared to the same period last year. This represents a strong recovery from Q2 when sales decreased by 5.2% due to the impact of the Covid-19 lockdown.//
// Charles Stanley (LON:CAY) - £150m// Interim Results // Total revenues were 4.1% lower at £81.9 million (H1 2020: £85.4 million)
// accesso Technology (LON:ACSO) - £150m// Full Year Trading Update // As announced in its half year report on 16 September, accesso delivered revenue for 1H 2020 of $24.6m, ahead of its revised expectations.
// Somero Enterprises Inc (LON:SOM) - £130m// Trading Statement // The Board is pleased to report that as a result of positive trading momentum from the end of H1 2020 continuing through H2 2020, it now expects to exceed its previous reinstated expectations for FY 2020.
// Zoetic International (LON:ZOE) - £80m// Trading Update // As previously reported with Zoetic online sales, Chills online orders are showing very positive results. New orders were up 190% in October, compared to September, which gives strong credence to the fact that the brand is really starting to catch traction online.//
// SRT Marine Systems (LON:SRT) - £60m// Half-year Report// Despite global lockdowns, throughout the period revenues were 7% higher than the same period last year at £3.8m, with an increased gross profit margin of 39%.
// Sabien Technology (LON:SNT) - £0m// Final Results & Update on Proposed Acquisition

Watchdog

20th Nov '20

Hi Dan,
Are you now posting your daily RNS summary here instead of on Paul's SCVR?

Caper4

I am also a holder of CLIG and intend to keep for the long term at is still trading at substantially below its net asset value and pays a decent dividend. Of course the Trust invests in companies such as HSBC which has taken quite a hammering in last few months but is certainly due for a correction once dividends are allowed to be paid .

intuitive6191

There are two different companies - City of London Investment Group and City of London Investment Trust.

Are we talking about the same company?

Fifty Day Positions - W47 - Nov 2020

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