If that last post was really tough to write at least this one should be much more fun - I get to focus on what went right! So here goes: a list of all my positions this year that contributed positively towards my returns, roughly in order of contribution to overall returns:
Trinity Mirror - TNI
If you were looking for a rollercoaster ride this year, Trinity Mirror (LON:TNI) was probably it. It started the year at 48p where I thought it was insanely cheap having bought in 2011 at prices of 54.8p and 43.9p respectively. I did a post on TMF where I tried to value TNI but long story short I thought that a) The business was still highly cash generative and not declining that quickly and b) The balance sheet was much stronger than it first appears due to the large amounts of freehold property that hasn't been revalued in over a decade, a pension deficit inflated by artificially low gilt yields and a deferred tax liability that's largely a figment of some daft accountant's imagination. I pegged my target value somewhere in the 100's and felt pretty happy with my purchases.
Naturally, the next thing the share did was a steady decline from March to May down to a low of 25.5p. Why? I wish I knew, I'm still a bit baffled by it. No significant news came out really to warrant a 50% decline in share price. Perhaps there was a distressed seller? Who knows. I'd love to say I was cool as a cucumber and accumulated a gigantic position to take full advantage but really I was questioning my analysis. What does someone else know that I don't? Maybe I'm underestimating the danger of the pension liability? What if the phone hacking situation is set to take down TNI? I researched and researched and still felt pretty confident the equity was worth far more than the market price so I topped up significantly at 30.7p and 26.9p in April and May. It was one of my biggest positions but no where near the "all-in" bet I'd have made if I'd been ultra-confident - ah well, hindsight investing is so easy isn't it?
Since then my thesis has played out fairly well - the company announced profits…
