My investment non-mistakes in 2012: Part 1

Friday, Jan 04 2013 by

If that last post was really tough to write at least this one should be much more fun - I get to focus on what went right! So here goes: a list of all my positions this year that contributed positively towards my returns, roughly in order of contribution to overall returns:

Trinity Mirror - TNI

If you were looking for a rollercoaster ride this year, Trinity Mirror (LON:TNI) was probably it. It started the year at 48p where I thought it was insanely cheap having bought in 2011 at prices of 54.8p and 43.9p respectively. I did a post on TMF where I tried to value TNI but long story short I thought that a) The business was still highly cash generative and not declining that quickly and b) The balance sheet was much stronger than it first appears due to the large amounts of freehold property that hasn't been revalued in over a decade, a pension deficit inflated by artificially low gilt yields and a deferred tax liability that's largely a figment of some daft accountant's imagination. I pegged my target value somewhere in the 100's and felt pretty happy with my purchases.

Naturally, the next thing the share did was a steady decline from March to May down to a low of 25.5p. Why? I wish I knew, I'm still a bit baffled by it. No significant news came out really to warrant a 50% decline in share price. Perhaps there was a distressed seller? Who knows. I'd love to say I was cool as a cucumber and accumulated a gigantic position to take full advantage but really I was questioning my analysis. What does someone else know that I don't? Maybe I'm underestimating the danger of the pension liability? What if the phone hacking situation is set to take down TNI? I researched and researched and still felt pretty confident the equity was worth far more than the market price so I topped up significantly at 30.7p and 26.9p in April and May. It was one of my biggest positions but no where near the "all-in" bet I'd have made if I'd been ultra-confident - ah well, hindsight investing is so easy isn't it?

Since then my thesis has played out fairly well - the company announced profits…

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Trinity Mirror plc is a national and regional news publisher. The Company is engaged in producing and distributing content through newspapers and associated digital platforms. It operates through four segments: Publishing, which includes all of its newspapers and associated digital publishing; Printing, which provides printing services to the publishing segment and to third parties; Specialist Digital, which includes its digital recruitment classified business and its digital marketing services businesses, and Central, which includes revenue and costs not allocated to the operational divisions. The Publishing segment publishes paid-for national newspapers and paid-for and free regional newspapers, and operates a portfolio of related digital products. The Printing segment operates five print sites with approximately 20 full color presses. Trinity Mirror Digital Recruitment operates three specialist job boards: GAAPweb, TotallyLegal and SecsintheCity. more »

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Judges Scientific plc is a United Kingdom-based company, which is engaged in the acquisition and development of a portfolio of scientific instrument businesses. The Company's activities are predominantly in or in support of the design and manufacture of scientific instruments. Its segments include Materials Sciences and Vacuum. Its subsidiaries include Armfield Limited, engaged in the design and marketing of engineering equipment and research instruments; Fire Testing Technology Limited, which is engaged in the design, manufacture and service of instruments that measure the reaction of various materials to fire; Scientifica Limited, which offers micropositioning equipment, microscopes and advanced imaging systems used in electrophysiology and neuroscience; Quorum Technologies Limited, which manufactures scientific instruments primarily used for electron microscopy sample preparation, and Sircal Instruments (UK) Limited, which designs, manufactures and distributes rare gas purifiers. more »

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PV Crystalox Solar PLC is a supplier to the photovoltaic industry, producing multicrystalline silicon wafers for use in solar electricity generation systems. The Company's three-stage production process includes Ingot production, block production and wafer production. The Company's subsidiaries include Crystalox Solar Limited and PV Crystalox Solar Silicon GmbH. The Company operates in Japan, Taiwan, Canada, Germany, the United Kingdom and Rest of Europe. more »

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  Is Trinity Mirror fundamentally strong or weak? Find out More »

2 Comments on this Article show/hide all

Monty9 31st Jul '13 1 of 2

Re JDGS accounting issues. As an accountant I understand the rules and find them all the more annoying for that. Ret he convertible stock it puts the gain on the connected party through the PNL. Logically it should do the same with the whol

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Monty9 31st Jul '13 2 of 2

Sorry... Whole share capital so it shows market cap - and a huge deficit on ret earnings. The standard is, IMHO, plain wrong.

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About CantEatValue


Part-time private investor predominantly in micro-cap UK equities or anywhere I can find inefficiencies.


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