Super Stock Consistency

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13th Aug '19 by colin1862

5 comments 681 reads

From your full 6 year history have any Super Stocks remained Super Stocks from the beginning?

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About the Author

Colin1862

Premium Member

5 comments

Nick Ray

13th Aug '19

I'm going to guess the answer is "no".

I have data on some stocks back to 2016. So if you are curious my list of the best performers in terms of maintaining a high stock rank seem to be these:

Persimmon (LON:PSN)
Bloomsbury Publishing (LON:BMY)
Games Workshop (LON:GAW)
Ocean Wilsons Holdings (LON:OCN)
Barratt Developments (LON:BDEV)
Plus500 (LON:PLUS)
RM (LON:RM.)

I don't track the smaller caps and I have only sorted using Stock Rank (rather than requiring high Q V M) for this list. So it is just a flavour.

Overall performance since 2016 is reasonably good - but it should be. We are selecting for stocks which have had consistently high Stock Rank so we are forcing them to have at least reasonable historical Momentum.

Rusty2

13th Aug '19

Most of those are not Superstocks currently, only Barratt Developments (LON:BDEV) and RM (LON:RM.) seem to be. H & T (LON:HAT) has been for nearly 2 years I think. I doubt any will have been for 6 years.

Howard Marx

13th Aug '19

Such a stock would obviously need to have:

1. persistently high Quality
2. persistent eps upgrades (Momentum), but
3. a rational share price that appreciated only in line with the upgrades (so preserving the Valuation).

Such stable growth companies tend to occur in established industries such as Food Producers, Household Goods, Pharmaceuticals or Support Services.

Pfizer almost suceeds over five years, as does Accenture:

Nick Ray

13th Aug '19

I had another look, this time forcing Q V M to all be above some minimum value. Using the rule that the stock must have a continuous record from 2016 to now there is only one stock where Q V and M all stay above 50 and that is Bloomsbury Publishing (LON:BMY) where worst case (Q,V,M) are at different times (64, 59, 51). Nothing does better than that. So no stocks even have all QVM above 60 for the whole period.

There may be many I have missed of course. Stocks which change name will escape my simple attempts to track them and stocks which performed well but were taken over will have disappeared, and anything smaller than £100M will be missed.

colin1862

13th Aug '19

Thanks for informative replies. I was a bit naive to expect a 6 yr Super Stock (if found will promote to Super Duper Stock.)....I was trying to compose a portfolio with minimum buy/sell so was going to start with all Super Stocks but was wondering what rule I could use before being forced to sell. Maybe if any of their Stock Ranks (Q V M) falls below 50 would be reasonable or if the SR falls into Bearish from graph would be appropriate. Thanks all for input!

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Super Stock Consistency

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About the Author

Colin1862

5 comments

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