Top Ten Tables for UK investors

Wednesday, Oct 30 2013 by
10

I've set up a page where you can enter your top ten holdings (by value) and see everyone else's. There's an optional cash holding % box.
It also compiles the Top Top Twenty continuously.

http://www.freesharedata.com/top-ten-table

Credit to Carmensfella for the idea.

We'd like as many entries as possible, so make yours now.
Don't worry about the exact order of your top ten.

New features

Correlation with Top Top Twenty column. Max is 10.

Top Top Twenty now shows change over year. Average is 60% (at 1 Nov). This is so high there must be self-selection bias involved and probably momentum investing as well. Gengulphus points out on TMF that a strong effect is "Holdings which grew a lot over the last year will tend to have become large and so have got into the table; holdings which didn't grow a lot over the past year will tend not to have become large and so not have got into the table...The real test of how impressive it is will be how those top ten holdings grow over the next year, not how they grew over the past year."

Top Top Twenty Tracker From the Top Top Twenty frozen on 1 Nov, the change since 31 Oct is shown.


Filed Under: Stock Picks,

Disclaimer:  

As per our Terms of Use, Stockopedia is a financial news & data site, discussion forum and content aggregator. Our site should be used for educational & informational purposes only. We do not provide investment advice, recommendations or views as to whether an investment or strategy is suited to the investment needs of a specific individual. You should make your own decisions and seek independent professional advice before doing so. The author may own shares in any companies discussed, all opinions are his/her own & are general/impersonal. Remember: Shares can go down as well as up. Past performance is not a guide to future performance & investors may not get back the amount invested.


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SOCO International plc (SOCO) is an oil and gas exploration and production company. The Company's segments include South East Asia and Africa. It has field development and production interests in Vietnam, and exploration and appraisal interests in the Republic of Congo (Brazzaville) and Angola. In Vietnam, SOCO's Block 16-1 and Block 9-2 include the Te Giac Trang and Ca Ngu Vang Fields, which are located in shallow water in the Cuu Long Basin, near the Bach Ho Field. SOCO holds working interest in Block 16-1 and Block 9-2 through its subsidiaries, SOCO Vietnam Ltd and OPECO Vietnam Limited. SOCO holds its interests in the Marine XI Block, located offshore Congo (Brazzaville) in the shallow water Lower Congo Basin, through its subsidiary, SOCO EPC. SOCO holds working interest in the Mer Profonde Sud Block, offshore Congo (Brazzaville) through its subsidiary, SOCO Congo BEX Limited. SOCO's subsidiary, SOCO Cabinda Limited, holds participation interests in the Cabinda North Block. more »

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Lloyds Banking
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45 Posts on this Thread show/hide all

emptyend 1st Nov '13 26 of 45
1

In reply to post #78736

trust in the fact that eventually the market gets things right, and in the meantime pocket those handsome payouts.

True. I'm not complaining (but it would have been nice if the market could have priced the stock better along the way - I once bothered to have a valuation model of my own, and the market has only been "right" (in my estimation) for a grand total of two days during the 14 years I've held the shares!)

Fortunately though I don't think there is a need to rely on the stockmarket in this case - though in very many others it would indeed be a continual worry that the market can evidently get it wrong for years on end.

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Edward Croft 1st Nov '13 27 of 45
1

In reply to post #78732

DS - actually what we've found is that QVM isn't as good for large caps as it is for small caps. For large caps QV works very well. We'll be publishing our findings in due course - it's an ongoing project !

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Fangorn 1st Nov '13 28 of 45

In reply to post #78692

Sorry mark, not a Techie so cant help you.

Works fine on my tablet, but then I've a Sammy Galaxy 2.

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johnrosier 1st Nov '13 29 of 45
5

In reply to post #78705

Hi snickers, what a great idea and I hope you don't mind me using it. I have had an exciting morning plotting my own holdings onto this chart!

48.1% of the portfolio by value lies in the bottom right, 26.5% is not included as it is invested in investment trusts, 13.2% is in the top left and the remaining 12.2% is Dixons, Lamprell, French Connection and cash.

Observations; I need to be pretty sure why I am holding the companies in the top left. Agriterra (LON:AGTA) for instance is my worst performing stock and seems to be going nowhere. Melrose Industries (LON:MRO) on the other hand has performed very well, so no doubt has shifted eastwards over the border from good value to poor. Dolphin Capital Investors (LON:DCI) is performing well and is really an NAV discount play and Fusionex International (LON:FXI) is, lets be honest, a punt on continued rapid sales and profits growth.

Maybe some or all of that money would be better deployed in higher quality, better value stocks!

Another observation was that of my top 10 stocks, only one was in the twenty most popular stocks held by the group of investors. Is that good or bad? Maybe I am holding stocks that have not been discovered and become popular yet or on the other hand maybe I am missing out on some opportunities that some very good and experienced investors have found.





Website: JohnsInvestmentChronicle
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emptyend 1st Nov '13 30 of 45
3

Observations; I need to be pretty sure why I am holding the companies in the top left
I rather like the idea of naming the quadrants here (an idea if you are playing around at the weekend, Ed :-)).
 
....as with the famous BCG matrix:

 

 

 

Using John's/snickers' axes (but which I'd like to change so that at least the origin was in the bottom left....sorry for the boring convention) we might have:
Top Left :   Out and out Punts
Top Right : Cheap Punts
Bottom Left: Well-known investments (?)
Bottom Right: Investment opportunities
 
or.....slightly more snappily....
 
Top Left: Long-shots
Top Right: Recovery stocks
Bottom Left: Safety first
Bottom Right: Potential Stars
 
No doubt better names will suggest themselves to those who can see the full dataset rather than just guessing.

 

And...developing the thought further.....perhaps one should always review the holding of a share when it crosses a quadrant? So, for example, a move to the right might suggest watching it for a top-up, whereas a move to the left might suggest watching it for a sale. Similarly, a move down might suggest watchlisting for purchase whereas a move up might suggest watchlisting for a sale (the apparent poor logic of those statements is a consequence of the chart being "upside down").

 

ee
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Edward Croft 1st Nov '13 31 of 45
1

In reply to post #78752

Great that you've done that John - & Good to see your quality at a reasonable price bias. This whole idea is a great one for bettering the portfolio analysis tools.

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Mechanical Bull 1st Nov '13 33 of 45

Had a go at doing this with my porfolio in Excel. Had trouble trying to insert the image so here is a link...

http://tinypic.com/r/4gr984/5

Blog: Mechanical Bull Blog
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shanklin100 2nd Nov '13 34 of 45
1

nswier

I think its very interesting to see the investment style of different posters as it provides context for their posts.

With this in mind, and perhaps its just old age kicking in, is there any chance please that you could change the colour of the circles to something that makes reading the EPICs a little easier?

Thank you, Martin

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Mechanical Bull 2nd Nov '13 35 of 45
1

Martin - OK, I had another go. I changed the colours and shortened the axes. Also I worked out how to insert the image into my comment. I should add that it is no accident nearly everything is in the high value/quality quadrant. That's all down to Stockopedia!

Blog: Mechanical Bull Blog
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emptyend 2nd Nov '13 36 of 45

In reply to post #78769

is there any chance please that you could change the colour of the circles to something that makes reading the EPICs a little easier?

Just on that point (for Ed) .....those of us who have partial colourblindness really appreciate avoiding things like washy reds and greens on the same chart (as they can all look the same). Inyerface blues, reds, black etc are much safer!

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shanklin100 4th Nov '13 37 of 45
1

Thank you nswier

Cheers, Martin

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PhilH 4th Nov '13 38 of 45
4

Hi,

Following on from some excellent posts on this thread I've been tinkering with bubble charts and how I might be able to use them to evaluate the value based shares in my portfolio and if they can help me to adjust position sizes and time buys and sells.

Below is a Quality Rank  vs Value Rank chart with Position Size mapped to the size of the bubble as I believe this might help me to notice allocation issues. The chart is built using Google docs and they allow you to further classify the bubbles so I chose to highlight the reliability of the companies past earnings which I designated as either 'Lumpy', ' Solid' or 'Excellent'. Please note that the y axis (Quality Rank) runs from 40, not 0 as I tend to buy high quality stocks.

Quality vs Value plus Position Size

I also took this further as I like to buy stocks showing momentum and so next I plotted the Momentum Rank vs Value Rank and because the Momenum Rank uses both 6m and 1yr RS I wanted an indication of more short/medium term momentum so I assigned 3m Relative Strength to the bubble size. Once again I classified each investment based on it's earnings reliability.

Momentum vs Value plus 3m RS

On both charts I tend to buy value stocks in the top right corner, i.e. high quality, good value stocks exibiting momentum. I hold them as they drift left as the price improves. If the momentum fails my stop losses will take me out of the play. I'm not a forensic value investor in that I dont have the time, expertise or interest to pour through company accounts. I use notional stops in that I maintain a spreadsheet and close trades in the following days. That's the theory yet I seem to be unable to cut my losses on Spectrum ASA (OSL:SPU) which has so far proved to be a value trap. What about Duro Felguera SA (MCE:MDF) & MDM Engineering (LON:MDM) I hear you ask? I took a punt on Duro Felguera SA (MCE:MDF) recently when the price dived and so I was trying to ride a turnaroud, although it appears to be unsuccessul. I bought into MDM Engineering (LON:MDM) recently as it broke out from its recent low and so I've done quite well off it.

I also buy high quality growth stocks such as Xaar (LON:XAR), Let's Gowex SA (MCE:GOW) & Tasty (LON:TAST), however it's hard to get em cheap. Whilst Tasty (LON:TAST) doesn't score as high on the Quality Rank as some of my other selections I give it extra credit given the previous success of the founders at building and selling off restaurant businesses. 

I'm now trying to build some more formal rules for myself particularly around the reduction of successful positions and being more ruthless in cutting losers. I should be selling my apparent misakes with a view to buying back in when RS improves and momentum starts to build.

I think these graphs would make a great addition to the porfolio and screening functions of Stockopedia. I'd also like to be able to plot the various Stockopedia ranks against the share price.

 I'd be interested in any comments or observations

Cheers
Phil

Professional Services: Sunflower Counselling
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emptyend 4th Nov '13 39 of 45
2

It isn't very helpful but my main thought is that I can't see the charts because of the blue "stock picking simplified" box!

Think you are moving in the right direction though with trying to develop decision parameters.

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PhilH 4th Nov '13 40 of 45

In reply to post #78813

Hi EE,

"It isn't very helpful but my main thought is that I can't see the charts because of the blue "stock picking simplified" box!"

What blue "stock picking simplified" box!" ??

Confused
Phil

Professional Services: Sunflower Counselling
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emptyend 4th Nov '13 41 of 45
1

Nothing to do with you - I get an "always on top" Stockopedia advert on the right that obsures wide charts.

rgds

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PhilH 4th Nov '13 42 of 45

Does adjusting the browser zoom help? Usually 'Ctrl +' to zoom in, 'Ctrl -' to zoom out and 'Ctrl 0' to reset

Professional Services: Sunflower Counselling
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Edward Croft 5th Nov '13 43 of 45
8

We've made a first hack of this on the development server.  It's v. much a 'hobby' project at the moment as we have some other priorities but I'll see if I can get it pushed out at some point.  The idea being that you can choose any 2 metrics of any of our publicly available ratios and chart your portfolio with them.  In the case below I've set it up for Quality vs Value with the bubble size as the portfolio % holding.  We could always set a third dropdown to allow the bubble size to be anything at all.

Any feedback on this is welcome.  I was thinking we ought to do this kind of visualisation for all lists around the site as an additional 'view' (i.e. next to the snapshot, table and charts views)... 

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emptyend 5th Nov '13 44 of 45
1

In reply to post #78833

Good going Ed.

You might consider allowing them to add the profiles on the same parameters of a much bigger population (in a very light background colour)? That way someone could instantly see how their holdings mapped on a pair of variables in comparison with a larger reference population (eg FTSE350 stocks, all the retail sector or whatever) - and could spot any outliers in their own holdings or in the underlying population, either of which might be worth further investigation.

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PhilH 5th Nov '13 45 of 45

In reply to post #78833

Hi Ed,

Yes please add a drop down for the bubble size and consider that the range for that value might include negative numbers. I personally prefer negative bubbles to have a hollow centre and to get get bigger as they increase in negativity. This can really help to make the extremes stand out.

Happy to beta test stuff if that would help.

Professional Services: Sunflower Counselling
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