Trading U.K stock market using Mark Minervini strategy

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14th Dec '18 by unwise2

1516 comments 109004 reads

Mark has been interviewed by Stocko a couple of times and from some of the comments on various threads there appears to be a few of us using his methods to trade the U.K stock market. I thought it would be useful to have a dedicated thread where we can discuss how well its working.

Personally I have been in cash at least 50% since the end of May and at 95-100% since early October. Getting out of stocks as they roll over has protected me from any real damage.

I'm struggling to find many setups I want to buy so I am developing my "sit out power"

How is everyone else doing?

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About the Author

Unwise2

Premium Member

1516 comments

unwise2

13th Aug '19

6% seems like no mans land, you couldn't know what was going to happen. The only other logical place to put a stop would have been below the 1st March low, which would have been 8-8.5%.

A staggered stop would have kept you in half the position.

unwise2

13th Aug '19

It's been very informative to look at the various set-up and I'm sure we could debate the validity of one or two of them.

I would be interested if you or anyone else who has looked at the lists (winners and losers) to comment on which setups look the most questionable and the reasons why. I think it would be helpful to all of us to consider the pros/cons of setups that are not obvious/textbook.

llwydiaid

14th Aug '19

A few comments on improving performance:

1. Rising 200d MA. Minervini notes - at least 1 month and preferably 4-5 months minimum. The following losers were dubious DFS Furniture (LON:DFS), Duke Royalty (LON:DUKE), GB (LON:GBG), Ideagen (LON:IDEA), Pets at Home (LON:PETS), Topps Tiles (LON:TPT). On the other hand, you would have missed Anglo Pacific (LON:APF), Impax Asset Management (LON:IPX), Intermediate Capital (LON:ICP). It might be useful to stick to a black and white rule e.g. at least 3 months?

2. Beware of deep cups with sharp right hand sides. GB (LON:GBG), Greene King (LON:GNK), Pearson (LON:PSON), had already risen sharply by 30-40% from the bottom of their deep cups. Unrealistic to expect a further powerful breakouts.

3. When looking at each chart, I tried to pick out the buy points without refence to the dates in your table and some were certainly more ovious than others. It's clearly subjective, but I got the impression that the more obvious ones worked best e.g. I didn't really see clear breakouts with Admiral (LON:ADM), £AUST, DFS Furniture (LON:DFS) . Perhaps the lesson is - if in doubt, don't buy it!

Thanks again for the data. It's been a useful exercise for me.

sharesurfer

14th Aug '19

HI,

RM (LON:RM.) looked interesting a couple of days ago. It went up 4.5% on Monday on something like a massive 35x normal volume. This after a nice long base. Also, it is showing both revenue and profit acceleration, broker forecasts are up. I reckoned it might be a pivot point on Monday but didn't follow through next day (Tuesday). In fact, it was down 2.5% on again massive volume. That was very odd. I was hoping for a low volume pullback. Today (Wednesday), its flat with hardly any volume at all. Don't know what to make of it. Appreciate any thoughts. Thanks.

unwise2

14th Aug '19

I've been watching RM (LON:RM.) it's a difficult one to call. It created a flat base and broke out to 268p only to fall back quickly into a similar trading range. I don't see a obvious pivot point yet.

PhilHofGrowYourDough

14th Aug '19

. (wrong thread)

Rusty2

15th Aug '19

Ab Dynamics (LON:ABDP) has had a sudden fall, can’t see any news but does have history. H & T (LON:HAT) has hit new 52 week high following interim results.

llwydiaid

15th Aug '19

Spirent Communications (LON:SPT) broke out of its cup and handle last week (see herbie47 and unwise2 posts of 8 Aug.). Looking at the monthly chart it's now trying to break out into a new 10year high. During the last few days it's been spiking up each morning which I take to be a positive sign.

unwise2

15th Aug '19

I sold Ab Dynamics (LON:ABDP) yesterday the moment it hit my stop (small slippage), which has saved me from further falls today.

Rusty2

15th Aug '19

I have been stopped out of £ABDP several times in the past but with hindsight I should have held as the share price is now around £22, last time was around £17.

Rusty2

15th Aug '19

Note the time on the new system seems to be GMT.

InvestorJohn

15th Aug '19

Took a quick look at Spirent Communications (LON:SPT) there are a lot of Director sells recently which may be a worry

2019-06-18 E.G. Hutchinson SELL 698,207 @ 151.33p 1,056,597 N/A
2019-06-18 E.G. Hutchinson EX 698,207 @ 0.00p 0 N/A
2019-06-18 A. Iveson SELL 25,811 @ 151.33p 39,060 0.01
2019-06-18 A. Iveson EX 54,723 @ 0.00p 0 N/A
2019-06-18 J. Klaassen SELL 58,510 @ 151.33p 88,543 N/A
2019-06-18 J. Klaassen EX 58,510 @ 0.00p 0 N/A
2019-06-18 W. Mortimer SELL 95,104 @ 151.33p 143,921 N/A
2019-06-18 W. Mortimer EX 95,104 @ 0.00p 0 N/A
2019-06-18 N. Wright SELL 187,922 @ 151.33p 284,382 N/A
2019-06-18 N. Wright EX 187,922 @ 0.00p 0 N/A

unwise2

15th Aug '19

Thinking like that will drive you nuts. It's guaranteed you will get stopped out of future winners sometimes but it will save you from a lot of major losses. I got stopped out of Burford Capital (LON:BUR) at approx £17.80 back in Feb, it's been as low as £3.80 since.

That level of loss doesn't just hurt financially, its hurts psychologically and makes it difficult to think logically. I speak from previous experience.

llwydiaid

15th Aug '19

Re Spirent Communications (LON:SPT) director sales. Where did you get the data? I don't see any RNS announcements for large director sales after March

unwise2

16th Aug '19

Thanks for the comments. I agree Pets at Home (LON:PETS) and Topps Tiles (LON:TPT) were questionable as early turns.

The other companies you mention had a 200dma that had previously been trending upward before flattening out. It's difficult to know if stage 3 is beginning or it's just a temporary pause due to market conditions. I have looked back and can see 5 winners and 4 losers with a flat or nearly flat 200dma, which isn't very conclusive. I would point out that I would only consider stocks with a 200dma that has flattened out in a base if the overall market had had a significant market correction in the previous 6-9 months.

The way you are measuring the depth of cups doesn't look right, Mark measures a pullback from the top of the base down to the bottom of a base. Using that method Pearson (LON:PSON) pulled back 22% Greene King (LON:GNK) 28% and GB (LON:GBG) 36%.

llwydiaid

16th Aug '19

Re cup measurement. It was the rise from the bottom of the cup that I measured. In these examples the handle was higher or level with the top of the cup and the preceding rise from deep bottoms had been swift and steep. e.g GB (LON:GBG) had risen over 50% (410-630) in a period of about 3-4 months. So if you're looking at handles from deep bottoms I think you need to beware of steep right hand sides of the cup. Doesn't Minervini prefer shallower cups?

InvestorJohn

17th Aug '19

I got the Spirent sales info from the old stockopedia site go to Accounts tab and select Director dealings from the drop down menu

Rusty2

17th Aug '19

Spirent Communications (LON:SPT) I think all of those sales were share options, these are not listed on some sites, one concern is the amount of share options being handed out.

andrea34

17th Aug '19

I think quite a number of stocks are falling suddenly, for no obvious reason with no news... it's just market fragility - Marlowe (LON:MRL) has been hit in this way recently.

llwydiaid

18th Aug '19

What do mean by the "old Stockopedia site"? Is there more than one?

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Trading U.K stock market using Mark Minervini strategy

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Unwise2

1516 comments

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