REG - AIB Group PLC - EBA European Wide Stress Test 2025

AIBAnnouncement

01/08/2025 18:00

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RNS Number : 7188T  AIB Group PLC  01 August 2025

 

   1 August 2025

 

AIB Group plc - European Banking Authority (EBA) European-Wide Stress Test
2025

 

AIB Group plc (AIB) notes the announcements made today by the EBA on the
EU-wide stress test.

 

CFO Comment on EBA EU-Wide Stress Test

 

"Our result of 13.4% fully loaded CET1 in the EBA's hypothetical adverse
scenario demonstrates our high capital base and capital resilience in the EBA
adverse scenario. Capital depletion of 2.98% marks a significant improvement
on the 2023 exercise.  AIB continues to be very well-capitalised with a CET1
ratio of 16.4%((1)) at H1 2025 which remains substantially in excess of
regulatory requirements."

Donal Galvin, Chief Financial Officer

 

Results of EBA EU-Wide Stress Test

 

AIB was subject to the 2025 EU‐wide stress test conducted by the EBA, in
cooperation with the Central Bank of Ireland (CBI), the European Central Bank
(ECB), the European Commission (EC) and the European Systemic Risk Board
(ESRB).

 

AIB's capital ratios and EBA stress test results are outlined below:

 

 AIB CET 1 capital ratio       Dec 2024
 CET1 actual                   15.11%
 CET 1 restated CRR3*          16.38%
 EBA 2025 stress test results  Dec 2027 (Adverse scenario)
 CET 1                         13.40%

*Restated CET1 following Basel IV implementation on 1 Jan 2025

 

The 2025 EBA stress test adverse scenario resulted in capital depletion of
2.98% on a fully loaded basis and is lower than the 2023 EBA stress test
adverse scenario (capital depletion 6.32%) largely as a result of increased
net interest income due to the recent higher rate environment.

CET1 in the adverse scenario of 13.4% is well above total SREP capital
requirements (TSCR) of 5.85%((2)).

 

The 2025 EU-wide stress test does not contain a pass-fail threshold and
instead is designed to assist competent authorities in assessing AIB's ability
to meet applicable prudential requirements under stressed scenarios.

 

The adverse stress test scenario was set by the ECB/ESRB and covers a
three-year time horizon (2025-2027). The adverse scenario is based on a
hypothetical severe escalation of geopolitical tensions, accompanied by
increasingly inward-looking trade policies globally, that cause an increase in
energy and commodity prices, disruptions in the supply chain and adverse
effects on private consumption and investment coupled with a worldwide
economic contraction. The stress test was carried out applying a static
balance sheet assumption as of December 2024 and therefore does not take into
account future business strategies and management actions. It is not a
forecast of AIB's profits.

 

AIB Group plc published its 2025 half-yearly financial results today, further
information is available on our website 2025 Financial Results
(https://aib.ie/investorrelations/financial-information/results-centre/2025-financial-results)

 

To view the results including disclosure templates published by EBA for AIB,
please click here
(https://aib.ie/content/dam/frontdoor/investorrelations/docs/se-announcements/2025/eba-stress-test-2025.pdf)

 

((1)) The CET1 ratio of 16.4% does not include interim profits for the
half-year 2025 pending a final decision on payout at year end

((2)) TSCR is the sum of Pillar 1 (4.5%) and Pillar 2 requirement (1.35%) and
excludes combined buffer requirements

 
-ENDS-

For further information, please contact:

 

 Group Investor Relations & External Communications

 Niamh.a.Hore@aib.ie (mailto:Niamh.a.Hore@aib.ie)

 Tel: + 353 86 313 5647

 Investor Relations

 Siobhain.m.Walsh@aib.ie (mailto:Siobhain.m.Walsh@aib.ie)

 Tel: + 353 87 3956864

 External Communications

 Will.r.Goodbody@aib.ie (mailto:Will.r.Goodbody@aib.ie)

 Tel: +353 86 8502204

 

Forward Looking Statements

This document contains certain forward looking statements with respect to the
financial condition, results of operations and business of AIB Group and
certain of the plans and objectives of the Group. These forward looking
statements can be identified by the fact that they do not relate only to
historical or current facts. Forward looking statements sometimes use words
such as 'aim', 'anticipate', 'target', 'expect', 'estimate', 'intend', 'plan',
'goal', 'believe', 'may', 'could', 'will', 'seek', 'continue', 'should',
'assume', or other words of similar meaning. Examples of forward looking
statements include, among others, statements regarding the Group's future
financial position, capital structure, income growth, loan losses, business
strategy, projected costs, capital ratios, estimates of capital expenditures,
and plans and objectives for future operations. Because such statements are
inherently subject to risks and uncertainties, actual results may differ
materially from those expressed or implied by such forward looking
information. By their nature, forward looking statements involve risk and
uncertainty because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that
will occur in the future. There are a number of factors that could cause
actual results and developments to differ materially from those expressed or
implied by these forward looking statements. These are set out in the
Principal risks on pages 17 to 20 in the 2024 Annual Financial Report and
updated on page 30 of the Half-Year Financial Report 2025. In addition to
matters relating to the Group's business, future performance will be impacted
by the Group's ability along with governments and other stakeholders to
measure, manage and mitigate the impacts of climate change effectively. Future
performance could also be impacted by macroeconomic uncertainty, tariffs,
geopolitical tensions and global conflict. Any forward looking statements made
by or on behalf of the Group speak only as of the date they are made. The
Group cautions that the list of important factors on pages 17 to 20 of the
2024 Annual Financial Report and updated on page 30 of the Half-Year Financial
Report 2025 is not exhaustive. Investors and others should carefully consider
the foregoing factors and other uncertainties and events when making an
investment decision based on any forward looking statement.

 

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