Extreme heat could cost Germany up to $131 bln by 2030, analysis shows

Allianz SE

28/05/2026 12:53

BERLIN, May 28 (Reuters) - Extreme heat could cost Germany up to $131 billion by 2030 and shave up to 3% off economic output if recent heat wave patterns persist, an analysis from Allianz Trade showed on Thursday.

• Germany faces losses of up to $131 billion between 2026 and 2030 if heat waves seen in the past decade recur, the study showed
• Rising temperatures cut productivity and push up energy costs, weighing on companies and investment, it added
• Output losses of up to 3% of GDP are possible by 2030, placing Germany in the middle of Europe but on the losing side
• Southern Europe remains the hardest hit, while hotter regions outside Europe have adapted more to extreme heat
• Hamburg-based Allianz Trade said productivity drops by about 3% for each degree above 30°C, while energy costs rise roughly 1.2% per degree due to cooling needs
• Heat also strains public finances, lowering tax revenues by about 0.7% annually and worsening Germany's fiscal balance by around 0.9% of GDP per year, the analysis showed
• Allianz Trade said adapting economies to extreme heat will become a key competitiveness factor

 (Writing by Friederike Heine
Editing by Madeline Chambers)
 ((friederike.heine@thomsonreuters.com;))