Live Markets: Benchmark Treasury yield retreat puts key trend support in focus

Amazon.com

30/10/2026 12:59

Nasdaq 100 futures slide >2.5%, S&P 500 down >1%, Dow edges red
Q3 employment costs 0.8% vs 0.8% estimate
Euro STOXX 600 index dips ~0.3%
Dollar ~flat; gold, bitcoin both fall >1.5%; US crude rises >2%
US 10-year Treasury yield falls to ~4.95%
Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com
     
BENCHMARK TREASURY YIELD RETREAT PUTS KEY TREND SUPPORT IN FOCUS
US Treasury yields are continuing to retreat on Friday as investors seek safety following disappointing outlooks from Amazon AMZN.O and Intel INTC.O, pressuring tech shares and sending e-mini Nasdaq 100 futures NQc1 down more than 2.5%.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield US10YT=RR fell as low as 4.8917% before rebounding to around 4.95%. That's still well below Thursday's 4.988% close and extends a pullback that began after the yield peaked at 5.3645% on October 7.
From a technical perspective, the retreat has eased some of the upside momentum that drove yields to multi-decade highs. The 10-year is now back below its October 2023 peak near 5.02% and its upper yearly Bollinger Band, currently around 5.06%-5.07%, suggesting bullish momentum has cooled.
Traders are now focusing on the rising 20-week moving average, which sits just above 4.80%. This has been a key support level throughout 2026, with pullbacks in March, April, June and August all finding support near the moving average before the uptrend resumed. Next week, that measure rises to roughly 4.82%.
As long as the 10-year yield remains above the 20-week moving average on a weekly closing basis, many technicians will view the recent decline as a correction within a broader uptrend. A decisive break below it, however, could signal a more meaningful shift in trend.
Below that level, support sits in the 4.75%-4.68% area then around 4.62%. More significant downside magnets may emerge in the 4.50%-4.40% zone, where the upper boundary of a multi-year symmetrical triangle converges with the rising 20-month moving average.
On the upside, a move back above the upper yearly Bollinger Band would suggest the longer-term advance is reasserting itself. Resistance then comes in around 5.16%-5.18%, followed by the October 7 peak at 5.3645%.
A thrust above the October 7 high would put 5.48%-5.52% in focus, followed by the 50-year moving average near 5.65%. Beyond that lies the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 1981-2020 decline at 6.24%.
     
(Terence Gabriel)
     *****
     
EARLIER ON LIVE MARKETS:
DOLLAR NO HAVEN IN A TECH SELLOFF CLICK HERE
GULF ESCALATION FEARS MEAN IT'S TIME TO EXIT LONGER-DATED BONDS CLICK HERE
EUROPE, CANADA TOP FIXED-INCOME PICKS — SCHRODERS CLICK HERE
EUROPE ON THE SIDELINES CLICK HERE
EUROPE BEFORE THE BELL: WHEN WALL STREET SNEEZES CLICK HERE
MORNING BID ONE LAST CENTRAL BANK SURPRISE CLICK HERE
     

US10YY10302026 https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/buzz/mypmrrzaavr/image-1793364704737.png
(Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own )