Morningstar lifts 2026 earnings outlook for Ampol on refinery windfall, warns shares overvalued

Ampol

02/08/2026 19:32

** Morningstar analysts increase their 2026 earnings forecasts for Australian refined fuel retailer Ampol ALD.AX, but warn markets may be crediting Middle East gains persisting too long
** On Thursday, Ampol reported a threefold increase in its second-quarter Lytton refinery margins, as tightened crude supplies amid the Middle East conflict reduced refinery activity and drove up fuel margins
** Investment research firm increases its 2026 earnings per share forecast by 77% to A$5.04 ($3.54)
** However, Morningstar adds, "such levels should not be expected to persist" and forecasts 2027 earnings per share much lower, at A$2.28
** Also increases fair value estimate for Ampol by 5% to A$32 per share
** "Shares are up more than 40% since February and, in our view, are overvalued" - Morningstar
** YTD, stock is up nearly 25%

 ($1 = 1.4243 Australian dollars)


 (Reporting by Shruti Agarwal in Bengaluru; Editing by Bill Berkrot)
 ((Shruti.Agarwal@thomsonreuters.com;))