Analysis: Hedge funds chart course through 'IMO 2020' storm

Amsc ASA

08/07/2019 06:00

* IMO regulations also shaking up oil industry 
    * Funds see limited window for trading volatility 

    By Jonathan Saul, Maiya Keidan and Tom Arnold
    LONDON, July 8 (Reuters) - Shipping companies, refineries,
freight derivatives or diesel cracks? Investment funds are
placing their bets as the shipping sector prepares for new rules
limiting sulphur emissions from ocean-going vessels.
    Ever since the International Maritime Organization said the
maximum sulphur content in marine fuel must drop to 0.5% from
3.5% from 2020, shipping companies have been wrestling with how
to comply without driving up costs at an uncertain time for
global trade.
    Some shipowners are installing exhaust cleaning systems
known as scrubbers so they can continue to use high-sulphur fuel
and some are switching to low-sulphur marine diesel, but all
expect a period of turbulence when the "IMO 2020" rules come in.
    Investors in turn are coming up with strategies and
launching funds with exposure to parts of the oil and shipping
industries they expect to benefit from the new emissions caps.
    John Kartsonas, managing partner of Breakwave Advisors, said
while broader concerns about trade have dented investors' views
on shipping, IMO 2020 was likely to drive freight rates higher.
    Breakwave launched an exchange-traded fund last year to
invest in dry bulk freight derivatives, hoping to benefit from
IMO 2020.
    "Rarely you see such a potentially massive disruption," said
Kartsonas. "Delays, a reduced active fleet supply, slow steaming
and port congestion can push freight rates to decade highs, and
beyond."
    The Baltic Exchange's main sea freight index, which tracks
rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities, slumped after the
financial crisis to 700 points from a record 11,793 points in
2008. It's now about 1,500 points.  .BADI 
    Dry bulk ships make up more than a fifth of the world's
ocean-going vessels and many are among the most polluting ships.
    
    DERIVATIVE BY DESIGN
    At hedge fund Svelland Capital in London, one strategy is to
focus on petroleum products likely to be affected by the rules.
    "IMO 2020, together with the ballast water treatment, will
turn shipping upside down and create supply shock," chief
investment officer Tor Svelland said.
    Svelland Capital is launching an "IMO direct exposure fund"
in July aimed at investors who want to take positions based on
IMO 2020, but are less familiar with oil derivatives.
    "This is the largest regulatory change in the oil space ever
and it will have a massive effect far outside of shipping," said
the fund's portfolio manager Kenneth Tveter.     
    For now, there is no consensus on whether there will be
enough low-sulphur fuel to meet demand come 2020. Of the roughly
60,000 vessels worldwide, industry consultants estimate only 3%
to 5% are likely to have scrubbers by 2020.
    It is also unclear what will happen to demand for
high-sulphur fuel - all of which means the price gaps between
different fuel grades, as well as the different types of crude
used to make them, are likely to change.
    "You can try and pick winners in the shipping segment of the
equity markets, but to get a pure play you need the derivatives
market," Tveter said. "The new fund will look at all the parts
of refining that will be affected by the new regulations.
    In another sign of the impact of IMO 2020, China said on
July 4 that it planned to launch a futures contract for
low-sulphur fuel oil by the end of the year.  urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL4N2452C4
    
    REFINING REFINING
    Dutch asset manager Robeco is also focusing on fuel, but
it's investing in oil refineries that are well-placed to produce
large quantities of low-sulphur diesel.
    "We are invested in refiners since earlier this year and
this has been one of the drivers for that investment," said
Fabiana Fedeli, global head of fundamental equities.
    Robeco is selecting so-called complex refineries, plants
with lots of units that can turn low-value fuel oil into
higher-value products such as distillates, octane and
low-sulphur fuel.
    Fedeli said concerns about disruptions to global trade had
weighed on refining margins and related stocks this year, but
IMO 2020 could change that.
    "We expect that the impact on refinery margins will become
tangible from late Q3 2019 when ships are likely to begin
shifting to compliant fuels," she said. "Interestingly, this is
still not reflected in diesel crack futures."
    Alistair Way, head of emerging market equities at UK asset
manager Aviva Investors, said refineries that have invested to
produce more compliant fuel would benefit.
    He said Asian refiners such as Thai Oil  TOP.BK  and S-Oil
 010950.KS , were well placed as they produced a bigger than
average proportion of middle distillates and had less exposure
to high-sulphur fuels.
    Hedge fund CF Partners in London is focusing on price gaps
between different crudes. It expects sweet crude with higher
levels of distillates such as Nigeria's Bonny Light or U.S.
shale to be more in vogue than heavier, sour crude.
    
    SCRUB THAT
    CF Partners is also getting exposure to U.S.-flagged ships
known as Jones Act carriers after a law requiring goods shipped
between U.S. ports to be transported in U.S. vessels. 
    Elvis Pellumbi, manager at CF Partners, said it was buying
stocks in shipping firms such as Overseas Shipholding Group
 OSG.N . Pellumbi's fund has $400 million under management, of
which 30 percent is invesments related to IMO 2020.
    George Kaknis, portfolio manager at hedge fund LNG Capital,
said he was looking at shipping firms such as American Shipping
Company  AMSCA.OL , on the basis IMO 2020 would boost demand for
U.S. shale - and Jones Act tankers would benefit.
    "The more shale is produced out of the U.S., the more these
guys are kept busy and the more the day rates go up," he said.
    According to data from Symmetric, which tracks investment
funds, hedge fund ownership of some shipping stocks rose in the
first quarter. Their ownership of Nordic American Tanker  NAT.N 
rose to 12% from 8% in the fourth quarter last year, while hedge
fund stakes in DryShips  DRYS.O  rose to 13% from 5%.
    Other shipping firms investors said they were looking at
with IMO 2020 in mind include Scorpio Tankers  STNG.N , Navios
Maritime Acquisition  NNA.N , DHT  DHT.N , Frontline  FRO.OL 
and Euronav  EUAV.BR .
    While some shipowners have installed cleaning systems,
others see them as potentially high risk as some ports have
already banned or restricted scrubbers that pump waste water
into the sea, and more may follow suit.  urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL5N20M4GG
    Some investors say the upfront cost of installing scrubbers
- about $2 million to $3 million each - also means it would take
longer for them to pay off, especially if the price gap between
low and high-sulphur fuels narrows.
    "We don't believe that those who have invested in scrubbers
will achieve the amazing returns they have been advertising,"
said Pellumbi at CF Partners. "Refiners have/are adapting their
production slates to produce more of the right product."

 (Additional reporting by Simon Jessop; editing by David Clarke)
 ((jonathan.saul@thomsonreuters.com; + 44 207 542 4357 ; Reuters
Messaging: jonathan.saul.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))