Poll: U.S. home prices to fall less than expected despite high borrowing costs

Applied Energetics

31/05/2023 11:05

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              cpurl://apps.cp./cms/?pageId=house-poll poll data
    

  
    By Prerana Bhat and Indradip Ghosh
       BENGALURU, May 31 (Reuters) - U.S. home prices will
decline less than previously expected this year before
stagnating in 2024, despite widespread expectations interest
rates will remain higher for longer, according to property
analysts polled by Reuters.
    Even though the U.S. Federal Reserve has embarked on its
most aggressive tightening cycle in four decades, average home
prices have fallen just over 5% from their recent peaks, barely
a dent compared to the 45% rise during the COVID-19 pandemic.
    That resilience in one of the most interest-rate sensitive
sectors of the economy is largely down to the stubbornly-tight
supply of homes, which was not expected to ease for at least the
next six months.
    Home prices, which resumed their rise in March after eight
months of declines, will fall 2.8% this calendar year on
average, a May 15-30 poll of 30 property analysts showed. That
is less than the 4.5% drop predicted in March.
    Average house prices as measured by the S&P CoreLogic
Case-Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas were
forecast to stagnate next year. 
    The predicted 9% peak to trough fall is less than one-third
of the slump during the 2007-2008 global financial crisis,
leaving prices well out of reach for aspiring homeowners.  
    "Looking ahead, we think there is scope for prices to fall a
little further. Affordability is still stretched and a weakening
economy will weigh on homebuyer sentiment," said Sam Hall,
property economist at consultancy Capital Economics.
    "Given supply is likely to stay tight, there is a risk house
prices may not fall as much as we previously expected." 
    Elevated house prices along with high consumer inflation
suggests the Fed, which has raised its key rate from near-zero
in early 2022 to 5.00-5.25%, will at least hold until end-2023,
keeping upward pressure on mortgage rates.
    The 30-year fixed mortgage rate, currently around 6.7%, was
expected to average 6.2% in 2023. It is forecast to slip to 5.5%
in 2024 on expectations the Fed will be cutting rates then.
    Those high mortgage rates are restricting housing supply,
which puts upward pressure on prices, as well as demand. 
    "Despite mortgage rates more than doubling since 2021,
property owners haven't been forced to sell because most have a
job, and many are reluctant to list because they have a sweet
deal on a long-term mortgage," said Sal Guatieri, senior
economist at BMO Capital Markets.
        Existing home sales are currently running at an
annualised rate of 4.28 million units - significantly lower than
a peak of 6.56 million in January 2021 - and are forecast to
remain around that rate.
    Just over 70% of respondents, 16 of 22, said a significant
downturn was more likely than a rebound for home prices during
the remainder of the year.
    "If the Fed is forced to tighten policy further to contain
inflation, the market could resume a downward slide," added
BMO's Guatieri.
    
    (For other stories from the Reuters quarterly housing market
polls:  urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL4N37N0WK)
    

 (Reporting by Indradip Ghosh and Prerana Bhat; Polling by Aditi
Verma and Maneesh Kumar; Editing by Jonathan Cable, Ross Finley
and Sharon Singleton)
 ((Prerana.Bhat@thomsonreuters.com;))