Jefferies ups ArcelorMittal to 'buy' on improved EU steel sector prospects

ArcelorMittal SA

11/02/2026 09:04

** Jefferies raises the world's second-largest steelmaker ArcelorMittal MT.AS to "buy" from "hold", citing a structurally improved outlook for the EU steel sector due to trade protectionism

** The broker expects policy tailwinds, including reduced import tariff-rate quotas from July 2026, to curb low-cost imports and boost EU production rates towards 80-85%

** As the top EU steel producer, ArcelorMittal is positioned to benefit by bringing idle capacity online to meet an expected 3-4 million tonne rise in its medium-term EU steel volumes, says the broker in a note

** Jefferies highlights a "'Steel is the New Cement' re-rating narrative", forecasting ArcelorMittal's European EBITDA to nearly triple to $5.7bn by 2027 from $2bn in 2025

** Consequently, the brokerage raises its PT by 41% to EUR 62, lifting its 2027 group EBITDA forecast by 23% to $11.7bn, which is significantly above consensus expectations

** Out of 18 analysts that cover ArcelorMittal, 12 rate the stock "strong buy" or "buy" and ​six rate "hold" - LSEG data

 (Reporting by Clement Martinot)

 ((Clement.Martinot@thomsonreuters.com;))