Analysis: What's next for Italy's coalition after Berlusconi's death?

Arnoldo Mondadori Editore

12/06/2023 15:47

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      Berlusconi's party is a member of ruling coalition
    

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      Forza Italia seen as unlikely to carry on without him
    

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      Lawmakers could join other right-wing forces
    

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      Berlusconi's daughter Marina seen as potential heir
    

  
    By Angelo Amante and Giuseppe Fonte
       ROME, June 12 (Reuters) - The death of Silvio Berlusconi
will send shockwaves through his Forza Italia party, a member of
Italy's right-wing coalition, but analysts believe it could
provide a chance for Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni to strengthen
her leadership.
    Media tycoon Berlusconi founded Forza Italia when he entered
politics in 1994. The party always relied on his charismatic
leadership, and saw its support dwindle in recent years as
health issues limited his political commitment.
    Forza Italia is currently the junior partner among the three
main parties in the coalition and is seen as a more moderate
force compared to Matteo Salvini's League and Meloni's Brothers
of Italy.
    The support of Forza Italia's 62 lawmakers between the upper
and lower house of parliament is crucial for Meloni to maintain
a solid majority, but there is scepticism that the party can
find a leader able to avoid a break up.
    "Forza Italia may die with Berlusconi, it is difficult to
replace him, this is a monarchy that ends with the king,"
Giuliano Cazzola, a former lawmaker who was elected in
parliament with Berlusconi, told Reuters.
    Analysts believe Forza Italia members will increasingly be
tempted to shift allegiance to other parties without Berlusconi
keeping them afloat, giving Meloni leeway to snap up lawmakers
and broaden her party's ranks.
    "I expect Brothers of Italy to be attractive to Forza Italia
members," Lorenzo De Sio, a politics professor at LUISS
University in Rome, said.
    The relationship between Berlusconi and Meloni repeatedly
came under strain since they won general elections together last
year. They clashed over the war in Ukraine and he was spotted
describing her as overbearing, arrogant and offensive.
    But the way Berlusconi shaped the rightist bloc in the last
decades paved the way for Meloni's climb to power.
    The heirs of the post-fascist Italian Social Movement (MSI)
- which Meloni had joined in her youth - joined Berlusconi's
coalition in the mid-1990s, taking cabinet posts for the first
time.
    That triggered a long process which ended up in a merger
between Forza Italia and MSI's heir Alleanza Nazionale in a
single party. Meloni eventually left it in 2012 to co-found
Brothers of Italy.
    
    'GOOD GAME'
    Brothers of Italy presents itself as conservative, but often
draws criticism for maintaining the old flame symbol of the
original MSI and media occasionally publish photographs showing
fascist memorabilia in the offices of some regional politicians.
    Eugenio Pizzimenti, a politics professor at Pisa University,
said Berlusconi's death could lay the ground for Meloni to give
up for good her party's post-fascist roots and usher in a new
political force.
    "They would also need a 'makeup' at the international level
to show they are ready to become a full conservative party. If
Meloni plays it that way, she has a good game," he told Reuters.
    Antonio Tajani, the foreign minister and deputy prime
minister, is Forza Italia's most senior figure within the
government but analysts and politicians doubt he would be able
to take over as leader.
    He is widely seen as a reliable figure and has strong
European Union credentials following a long career in Brussels,
but Pizzimenti believes he could only help Forza Italia's
transition to a new Meloni-led conservative party.
    Investors are optimistic about Meloni's prospects. Althea
Spinozzi, fixed income strategist at Saxo Bank, said the risk
associated with investing in Italy can decrease with a downsized
Forza Italia.
    However, analysts do not rule out a political successor to
Berlusconi may eventually still emerge from his family,
complicating Meloni's efforts to cement her leadership.
    His eldest child, Marina, who has chaired Berlusconi's
holding Fininvest since 2005 and is aged 56, would be the
frontrunner to take on the reins of the party in case the family
decides to remain active in politics.
    Analyst De Sio said Marina Berlusconi could take the field
to preserve the family's influence in the Italian politics.
    "She would be in competition with Meloni. The key issue is
the family's desire to protect its companies, which are exposed
without Berlusconi," he told Reuters.

    <^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Silvio Berlusconi, former Italian prime minister and media
mogul, dies at 86     urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL8N3841MR
FACTBOX-Silvio Berlusconi's gaffes, quips and quotes   
 urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL6E7M933G
Billionaire Berlusconi brought burlesque to Italian politics   
 urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL1N3840I6
Berlusconi's passing paves way to reshape business empire    
 urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL8N3794ZM
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 (Reporting by Angelo Amante and Giuseppe Fonte; additional
reporting by Antonella Cinelli; Editing by Angus MacSwan)
 ((Angelo.Amante@thomsonreuters.com; @AmanteAngelo;))