REG - Aura Energy Limited - Tiris Project - Alternative Production Targets
13/12/2024 07:00
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RNS Number : 0205Q Aura Energy Limited 13 December 2024
13 December 2024
Tiris Uranium Project - Alternative Production Targets provide growth
opportunities for Aura
Aura has undertaken an assessment of the opportunities for future capacity
expansion at the Tiris Uranium Project in Mauritania utilising inputs from the
September 2024 Production Target Update 1 and the recently expanded 91.3Mlbs
U(3)O(8) Mineral Resource 2 .
The 11 September 2024 Production Target Update(1) presented an increase in
mine life from 17 to 25 years. The Company now presents alternative production
targets ("Production Targets") in this ASX Release based on an analysis of
opportunities to accelerate production in year 3 of operation, without any
other material changes to the underlying assumptions or levels of confidence.
Options have been analysed to expand the production capacity commencing in the
third year of operations from the initial development plan of 4.1Mtpa mine
rate to produce ~2Mlbspa U(3)O(8) per year by accelerating the mining rate and
increasing production capacity. Production scenarios have been assessed for
mining rates of 6.25Mtpa, producing ~3Mlbspa U(3)O(8) and 8.2Mtpa, producing
~4Mlbspa U(3)O(8). The options presented will not replace the Base Case
presented in the September 2024 Production Target Update(1), rather they
demonstrate optionality for the Tiris Uranium Project once in operation.
KEY POINTS:
§ The ~3Mlbspa U(3)O(8) production rate (6.25Mtpa mining rate) case (Option
1) returned the highest NPV and improved economics with results including:
§ NPV(8%) of approximately US$544M (A$836M) an increase of 9% on the base
case(1)
§ IRR of ~45% post tax and payback in the order of 2.5 years
§ High margin average annual post-tax cash flows over the life of mine of
~US$86M, an increase of 37% and average ~US$116M over the first five years of
operations
§ Additional development capital fundable from cashflow
§ Analysis used only 27% (21Mt) of the total defined Tiris East Inferred
Mineral Resources (79Mt @ 210ppm U(3)O(8) for 36.7Mlbs U(3)O(8))(2),
increasing the confidence that any future increases in Inferred Mineral
Resources and exploration success will have a materially positive impact on
this analysis
§ The next steps in progressing towards the construction and development of
the Tiris Uranium Project include:
§ Project funding inclusive of debt, strategic investors and / or equity
§ Securing further offtake contracts for future production
§ Confirming water supply and infrastructure
§ Engagement with qualified EPCM contractors for project development
§ Update of Ore Reserve estimate
§ Completion of Project Execution Plan
§ Final Investment Decision - March quarter 2025
Information on the future capacity expansion options is summarised in the
table below:
Units 4.1Mtpa mining (~2Mlbspa U(3)O(8)) Option 1 Option 2
Sept 24(1) 6.25Mtpa mining 8.2Mtpa mining
(~3Mlbspa U(3)O(8)) (~4Mlbspa U(3)O(8))
Uranium Price US$/lb U(3)O(8) $80 $80 $80
Valuations and Returns
Post-tax NPV(8) US$M 499 544 521
Post-tax IRR % 39% 45% 41%
Payback period Years 2.25 2.5 3.25
Cashflow Summary
Initial Life of Mine Years 25 18 16
LOM Production Mlbspa U(3)O(8) 43.5 37.9 37.9
Annual Production Mlbspa U(3)O(8) 1.8 2.3 2.9
Gross Revenue (LOM) US$M 3,467 2,898 2,898
Free Cashflow pre-tax (LOM) US$M 1,922 1,817 1,813
Free Cashflow post tax (LOM) US$M 1,509 1,457 1,484
Unit Operating Costs
All in Cost US$/lb U(3)O(8) 41.0 40.2 43.7
All-in Sustaining Costs US$/lb U(3)O(8) 35.7 31.8 31.9
C1 Cash Cost US$/lb U(3)O(8) 31.4 27.7 27.9
Operating Margin US$/lb U(3)O(8) 44.3 48.8 48.1
Operating Margin % 55% 60% 60%
Capital Cost
Development Capital US$M 230 317 445
Table 1 - Summary of the future capacity expansion options results with
comparison of the September 2024 Production Target update
Aura Energy Managing Director and CEO, Andrew Grove said:
"From the development production target update in September, the Tiris Uranium
Project has shown to be a very significant near-term low-cost high margin
uranium project with exceptional economics2F 3 , a NPV(8) of US$499M (A$734M),
IRR 39% and producing 2Mlbspa U(3)O(8) over 25 years at an AISC of US$35.7/lb
U(3)O(8) commencing in late 2026/early 2027.
Today's announcement clearly demonstrates the significant internal growth
opportunity at Tiris through a future expansion of the Project from Stage 1
cash flows, improving the confidence of the Inferred Mineral resources and
further exploration success from what is a highly prospective and
under-explored region with extensive un-drilled radiometric targets.
The initial near term Tiris Uranium Project development will be the start of
the value creation from the Project. Aura's has excellent internal growth
opportunities beyond the initial planned Tiris Uranium Project development
providing exceptional leverage as uranium demand is forecast to grow on the
back of committed development of reactors coming on stream."
Key highlights and outcomes of the alternative production target analysis:
The assessment of the capacity expansion opportunities identifies revenue can
be moved forward by accelerating the mining schedule with the following
observations for the cases analysed:
§ The open pit mining is a simple, low-risk, shallow, flexible, free digging
operation without the need for crushing and grinding
§ Initial development plan provides for a high margin long life business.
Future expansion plans can further enhance the Project value and can be
potentially funded from cash flows
§ Operating costs, AISC, decrease in the expansion cases analysed and are
largely due to spreading the fixed costs over a larger annual production base
§ The analysis only used approximately 26% of Inferred Mineral Resources
currently defined in the Tiris Uranium Project area amounting in aggregate
to 21Mt of the total 79Mt @ 210ppm U(3)O(8) for 36.7Mlbs U(3)O(8) 4 . Drilling
to increase the confidence of the Inferred resources is anticipated to have a
materially positive impact on this analysis
§ The significant exploration potential at Tiris also presents an opportunity
to add significant additional value to the future operations and support a
future expansion of the operations
§ The construction and operation of the Tiris Uranium Project is anticipated
to deliver significant and ongoing benefits to Aura shareholders and the
people of Mauritania
Cautionary Statement: TIRIS URANIUM PROJECT - ALTERNATIVE PRODUCTION TARGETS
The analysis presented in this ASX release represents alternative production
targets ("Production Targets") to those presented in the ASX and AIM Release:
11 September 2024 - Updated Production Target Improves Economics at Tiris. As
noted in this release, the updated Production Target was based upon Front End
Engineering Design (FEED) and Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) level
material assumptions. For more information, please refer to the ASX and AIM
Release: 11 September 2024 - Updated Production Target Improves Economics at
Tiris ("Production Target Update").
The 11 September Production Target Update presented an increase in mine life
from 17 to 25 years. The Company now presents alternative production targets
in this ASX Release as an analysis of opportunities to accelerate production,
without any other material changes to the underlying assumptions or levels of
confidence. The modular nature of the Tiris processing plant allows for
addition of extra modules without significantly impacting the overall
confidence in the capital estimate.
As the Alternative Production Targets for Tiris Uranium Project utilise a
portion of Inferred Resources, ASX Listing Rules require a cautionary
statement to be included in this announcement.
The Alternative Production Targets referred to in this announcement are based
on the updated Mineral Resource Estimate reported in accordance with JORC
guidelines 2012 in the ASX announcement entitled Aura increases Tiris Mineral
Resources by 55% to 91.3Mlbs U(3)O(8) (dated 12 June 2024)(X).
The Tiris Uranium Project Alternative Production Targets set out in this
announcement use Measured Resources (34%), Indicated Resources (40%), and
Inferred Resources (26%) for the mining inventory. The removal of the last 1%
of Inferred material to achieve a 25% target has less than US$1 million impact
on NPV, is not considered material and was maintained to keep a logical mining
sequence.
The percentage of Inferred Resources in the Alternative Production Target over
the first five (5) years is 8% at a production rate of 6.25Mtpa (~3Mlbspa
U(3)O(8) production) and 7% at a mining rate of 8.2Mtpa (~4Mlbspa U(3)O(8)
production).
The percentage of Inferred Resources in the Alternative Production Target over
the first 10 years is 20% at a production rate of 6.25Mtpa (~3Mlbspa U(3)O(8)
production) and 21% at a mining rate of 8.2Mtpa (~4Mlbspa U(3)O(8)
production). The project remains economically viable with removal of Inferred
Resources from the alternative production targets.
The Company confirms that the use of Inferred Resources is not a determining
factor to the Tiris Project's economic viability. There is a low level of
geological confidence associated with Inferred Mineral Resources and there is
no certainty that further exploration will result into the determination of
Indicated Mineral Resources, or that the production targets reported in this
announcement will be realised.
The Company confirms that it is not aware of any new information materially
affecting the information included in the ASX announcement: Aura increases
Tiris Mineral Resources by 55% to 91.3Mlbs (dated 12 June 2024). All material
assumptions and technical parameters underpinning the Mineral Resources
Estimates continue to apply. The Company confirms that the form and context in
which the Competent Person's findings are presented have not been materially
modified from the original market announcement.
In accordance with ASX Listing Rules 5.16 and 5.17, and 2012 JORC Code
reporting guidelines, a summary of the information derived from the Tiris
Uranium Project Alternative Production Target is detailed in this report. The
analysis also draws on information from the ASX announcements: Updated
Production Target Improves Economics at Tiris (dated 11 September 2024),
Update to Curzon Offtake Agreement (dated 16 April 2024), Aura's Tiris FEED
Study returns Excellent Economics (dated 28 February 2024) and Tiris Uranium
Project Enhanced Definitive Feasibility Study (dated 29 March 2023) which are
available here: auraenergy.com.au/investor-centre/asx-announcements.
(file:///C%3A/Users/Andrew/Dropbox/Aura/IR/Releases/auraenergy.com.au/investor-centre/asx-announcements)
The Announcement includes forward-looking statements. These forward-looking
statements are based on the Company's expectations and beliefs concerning
future events. Forward-looking statements are necessarily subject to risks,
uncertainties, and other factors, many of which are outside the control of
Aura Energy, which could cause actual results to differ materially from such
statements. Aura Energy makes no undertaking to subsequently update or revise
the forward-looking statements made in this announcement, to reflect the
circumstances or events after the date of this announcement.
The Company has concluded that it has a reasonable basis for providing the
forward-looking statements and production targets included in this
announcement. The detailed reasons for this conclusion are outlined throughout
this ASX announcement and in Updated Production Target Improves Economics at
Tiris (dated 11 September 2024), Update to Curzon Offtake Agreement (dated 16
April 2024) Aura's Tiris FEED Study returns Excellent Economics (dated 28
February 2024) and Tiris Uranium Project Enhanced Definitive Feasibility Study
(dated 29 March 2023). The Company confirms that apart from updates to the
Tiris Uranium Project's production targets outlined in this Tiris Alternative
Production Targets announcement, all the material assumptions underpinning the
aforementioned announcements continue to apply and have not materially
changed.
ENDS
The board of Aura Energy Ltd has approved this announcement.
This Announcement contains inside information for the purposes of the UK
version of the market abuse regulation (EU No. 596/2014) as it forms part of
United Kingdom domestic law by virtue of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act
2018 ('UK MAR').
For further information, please contact:
Andrew Grove SP Angel Corporate Finance LLP
Managing Director and CEO Nominated Advisor and Broker
Aura Energy Limited David Hignell
agrove@auraee.com (mailto:Agrove@auraee.com) Adam Cowl
+61 414 011 383 Devik Mehta
+44 203 470 0470
About Aura Energy (ASX: AEE, AIM: AURA)
Aura Energy is an Australian-based mineral company with major uranium and
polymetallic projects in Africa and Europe.
The Company is focused on developing a uranium mine at the Tiris Uranium
Project, a major greenfield uranium discovery in Mauritania. 2024 FEED
Study 5 and Updated Production Target 6 demonstrated Tiris to be a near-term
low-cost 2Mlbspa U(3)O(8) future uranium mine with a 25-year mine life with
excellent economics and optionality to expand to accommodate future resource
growth.
Aura plans to transition from a uranium explorer to a uranium producer to
capitalise on the rapidly growing demand for nuclear power as the world shifts
towards a decarbonised energy sector.
Disclaimer Regarding Forward-Looking Statements
This ASX announcement (Announcement) contains various forward-looking
statements. All statements other than statements of historical fact are
forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are inherently subject
to uncertainties in that they may be affected by a variety of known and
unknown risks, variables and factors which could cause actual values or
results, performance or achievements to differ materially from the
expectations described in such forward-looking statements. The Company does
not give any assurance or guarantee that the anticipated
results, performance or achievements expressed or implied in those
forward-looking statements will be achieved.
The Company has concluded that it has a reasonable basis for providing the
forward-looking statements and production targets included in this
announcement and that material assumptions remain unchanged. The detailed
reasons for this conclusion are outlined throughout this announcement, and in
the ASX Releases; "Aura's Tiris FEED Study returns Excellent Economics", dated
28 February 2024, "Tiris Uranium Project Enhanced Definitive Feasibility
Study", dated 29 March 2023 and "Updated Production Target improves economics
at Tiris Uranium Project", dated 11 September 2024.
ASX and JORC Related Disclosures
Mineral Resources
The information on Mineral Resources for the Tiris Uranium Project in this
report is extracted from the ASX release "Aura increases Tiris Mineral
Resources by 55% to 91.3Mlbs", dated June 2024.
These reports can be viewed at
https://auraenergy.com.au/investor-centre/asx-announcements
(https://auraenergy.com.au/investor-centre/asx-announcements) .
The estimated mineral resources underpinning the alternative production
targets have been prepared by a Competent Person or persons in accordance with
the requirements in Appendix 5A (JORC Code). The Competent Person for the
2024 Tiris Mineral Resource Estimates for all deposits underpinning the
Production Targets is Mr Arnold van der Heyden of H&S Consulting Pty
Limited 7 .
The company confirms that it is not aware of any new information or data that
materially affects the information included in the original market
announcement and, in the case of estimates of Mineral Resources or Ore
Reserves, that all material assumptions and technical parameters underpinning
the estimates in the relevant market announcement continue to apply and have
not materially changed. The company confirms that the form and context in
which the Competent Person's findings are presented have not been materially
modified from the original market announcement.
Production Targets
The information on Production Targets for the Tiris Uranium Project in this
report is extracted from the ASX release "Updated Production Target Improves
Economics at Tiris", dated 11 Sept 2024. This report can be viewed at
https://auraenergy.com.au/investor-centre/asx-announcements
(https://auraenergy.com.au/investor-centre/asx-announcements) .
The company confirms that all material assumptions on which the Alternative
Production Targets are based have been disclosed in this release.
The company confirms that it is not aware of any new information or data that
materially affects the information included in the original market
announcement and that all material assumptions and technical parameters
underpinning the estimates in the relevant market announcement continue to
apply and have not materially changed.
Ore Reserve Estimates
There are no Ore Reserves reported from this work.
This mine schedule optimisation study has not been undertaken to a suitable
level for Ore Reserve Reporting. There is outstanding work required before an
Ore Reserve can be estimated based on the June 2024 Mineral Resource. That
work is currently in progress.
An Ore Reserve Estimate has previously been published with the ASX and AIM
Release: 28 March 2023 - Tiris Uranium Project Enhanced Definitive Feasibility
Study. Since that publication an updated production target, outlined in ASX
release "Updated Production Target Improves Economics at Tiris", dated 11 Sept
2024 has been released and work remains ongoing to estimate an Ore Reserve
from this target.
Competent Person
The Competent Person for the Financial Analysis of expansion options for the
Tiris Uranium project is Dr Will Goodall. Dr Goodall is Chief Development
Officer with Aura Energy Ltd. The financial analysis in the report to which
this statement is attached and related material assumptions arebased on
information compiled and reviewed by Dr Will Goodall. Dr Goodall has
sufficient experience that is relevant to the project and to the activity
which he is undertaking. This qualifies Dr Goodall as a Competent Person as
defined in the 2012 edition of the 'Australasian Code for Reporting of
Exploration Results, Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves'. Dr Goodall is a
Member of The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy (AusIMM). Dr
Goodall consents to the inclusion in the analysis of the matters based on his
information in the form and context in which it appears
Tiris Uranium Project Base Case Summary
The Tiris Uranium Project is a greenfield calcrete uranium project located in
Mauritania that was first discovered by Aura Energy in 2008. It represents the
first planned development in a significant new global uranium province in
Mauritania with an updated Mineral Resource Estimate of 91.3Mlbs U(3)O(8)8 8
and with very considerable exploration upside and project growth
opportunities. The mineralisation is naturally suited to low capital cost
development and low operating cost extraction of uranium, presenting an
opportunity for near term development of the Project.
The FEED Study 9 was completed in February 2024 with focus on improving
engineering definition for each of the three modular circuit components of the
Tiris Uranium Project, including the beneficiation, concentrate processing and
precipitation and packaging circuits. The scope was defined in this manner to
provide scalability to fully utilise additional Mineral Resources as they were
defined.
The FEED(10) study which defined the project configuration is outlined in
Table 2. The production target(11) for the Tiris Uranium Project was updated
in September 2024 and the base case economics are presented in Table 2. The
production target information from September 2024 is the data used in the
scenario analysis.
Parameter Unit FEED parameters Production target
Feb 2024 Sep 2024
4.1Mtpa mining 4.1Mtpa mining
(~2Mlbspa U(3)O(8)) (~2Mlbspa U(3)O(8))
Beneficiation modules # 4
Processing modules # 2
Precipitation and packaging modules # 1
Beneficiation design capacity Mtpa 5
Processing design capacity Mtpa 0.5
Total ore mined Mt 63.7
Avg Strip ratio W:O 0.7
Avg mined grade U(3)O(8) ppm 255
Contained U(3)O(8) U(3)O(8) Mlbs 35.8
Avg concentrate grade U(3)O(8) ppm 1,743
Total Product U(3)O(8) U(3)O(8) Mlbs 30.1
Life of Mine years 17
Resource utilisation % 75%
Table 2 - FEED configuration parameters with comparison of variations between
FEED production target and updated production target
Evaluation of alternative Production Targets for expansion opportunities
The updated Production Target for the Tiris Project 10 demonstrated a
substantial increase in mine life, from 17 years to 25 years. Based on this
Production Target the Company has examined alternative Production Targets to
expand future mining rates and production capacity of the Tiris Uranium
Project after the Project has been put into production and cashflow is
available to fund the expansion opportunity. The basis for evaluation of
expansion opportunities included:
(§ ) Project start up unchanged from Tiris FEED(12) study configuration
and updated Production Target(13)
§ Capital expansion of the beneficiation and processing plants in year three
of operation
§ Capital and operating cost estimates expanded on modular basis, as defined
in the FEED study 11
The material assumptions for the FEED study(15), including capital and
operating cost estimates, remained unchanged in the development of an updated
production target utilising the updated June 2024 Mineral Resource Estimate
('MRE') 12 , for project start up. Estimation of expansion capital and
operating costs was completed by adding process modules. All updates relating
to the material assumptions for inputs to the updated Production Targets for
each option analysed are outlined in the following sections.
Tiris Uranium Project background
The Tiris Uranium Project is 100% owned by Tiris Ressources SA, which is 85%
owned by Aura Energy Ltd and 15% by the Mauritanian Government's Agence
Nationale de Recherches Géologiques et du Patrimoine Minier ('ANARPAM').
A Scoping Study was completed in 2014. This was updated into a Feasibility
Study ('FS') document in May 2017, to support an application for exploitation
licences. The FS and an extensive Environmental and Social Impact Assessment
('ESIA') were submitted on 24 May 2017 to the Mauritanian Ministry of
Petroleum, Energy and Mines, and formally approved by the Mauritanian
Government on 5 October 2017.
A Definitive Feasibility Study ('DFS') for a 1.25Mtpa mine and 230ktpa process
plant was completed in 201913F 13 . The process plant was designed to take
full advantage of the characteristics of the material which responds well to
concentration of uranium by scrubbing and screening, whilst providing a low
capital cost and rapid project development and construction.
The capital estimate for the DFS was updated in August 2021 14 . In March 2023
an Enhanced Definitive Feasibility Study 15 ('EFS') was published including
additional Ore Reserves and Mineral ResourcesF 16 . The EFS presented a staged
development approach, including a 2-year ramp up at 1.25Mtpa mined ore,
expanding to 4.1Mtpa mined ore in year three to produce an average of 2Mlbspa
U(3)O(8).
In February 2024 the results of a FEED study(14) updated capital and operating
cost assumptions and accelerated production to a base case capacity of 2Mlbspa
U(3)O(8) from the beginning of the Project.
Exploitation licences (2491C4 and 2492C4) for the Ain Sder and Oued El Foude
permits, were granted on 8 February 2019 17 . Mining Conventions for these
permits were signed in January 2023 18 and the final permits for mining and
processing uranium were granted in July 2024 19 .
The Mineral Resource Estimate for the Tiris Uranium Project was updated in the
ASX and AIM release: "Aura increases Tiris Mineral Resources by 55% to
91.3Mlbs", dated 12 June 2024. The global resource has been summarised in
Table 3. The Tiris Production Target update presented in September 2024
included material from the Tiris East resources and excluded material from Oum
Ferkik Resources.
Tiris Mineral Resource June 2024
Deposit Class Ore U(3)O(8) U(3)O(8) V(2)O(5) V(2)O(5)
Mt ppm Mlbs ppm Mlbs
All Tiris East Measured 34 230 17.3 75 5.6
Indicated 48 212 22.6 69 7.3
Inferred 79 210 36.7 68 11.9
Sub-total 162 215 76.6 69 24.9
Oum Ferkik Inferred 22 294 14.6 95 4.7
All Deposits Measured 34 230 17.3 74 5.6
Indicated 48 212 22.6 69 7.3
Inferred 102 229 51.4 74 16.6
Grand Total All 184 225 91.3 73 29.6
Table 3 - Tiris Uranium project Mineral Resource Estimate updated June 2024
Note: There is a low level of geological confidence associated with Inferred
Resources and there is no certainty that further exploration or evaluation
work will result in the determination of Indicated Resources or that the
production targets reported in this announcement will be realised. The Company
confirms that the use of Inferred Resources is not a determining factor to the
Tiris Uranium Project's economic viability
The information on Mineral Resources for the Tiris Uranium Project in this
report is extracted from the ASX release "Aura increases Tiris Mineral
Resources by 55% to 91.3Mlbs", dated June 2024.
These reports can be viewed at
https://auraenergy.com.au/investor-centre/asx-announcements
(https://auraenergy.com.au/investor-centre/asx-announcements) .
The estimated mineral resources underpinning the alternative production
targets have been prepared by a Competent Person or persons in accordance with
the requirements in Appendix 5A (JORC Code). The Competent Person for the
2024 Tiris Mineral Resource Estimates for all deposits underpinning the
Production Targets is Mr Arnold van der Heyden of H&S Consulting Pty
Limited 20 .
The company confirms that it is not aware of any new information or data that
materially affects the information included in the original market
announcement and, in the case of estimates of Mineral Resources or Ore
Reserves, that all material assumptions and technical parameters underpinning
the estimates in the relevant market announcement continue to apply and have
not materially changed. The company confirms that the form and context in
which the Competent Person's findings are presented have not been materially
modified from the original market announcement.
Expansion opportunity assessment
The Tiris Production Target update presented in September 2024 21
demonstrated an increased mine life from 17 to 25 years. The modular design of
the Tiris process flow sheet, Figure 1, allows for easy expansion of capacity
through the addition of further beneficiation and processing modules.
Consequently, the Company has assessed opportunities to optimise the life of
mine through assessment of several expansion scenarios, summarised in Table 4.
Figure 1 - Tiris Uranium Project key operational parameters and systems
Scenario Target expansion year Mining rate Production target capacity
Base case N/A 4.1 Mtpa ~2 Mlbspa U(3)O(8)
Option 1 3 6.25 Mtpa 3 Mlbspa U(3)O(8)
Option 2 3 8.2 Mtpa 4 Mlbspa U(3)O(8)
Table 4 - Expansion scenario configurations and alternative Production Target
capacity
Expansion mining assumptions
Introduction
An updated mine planning study 22 was undertaken on the updated Mineral
Resource Estimate for the Tiris Uranium Project of 184Mt @ 225ppm U(3)O(8) for
91.3Mlbs U(3)O(8) 23 . The tasks completed included open pit optimisations,
mine layouts and production scheduling.
The mining method remains the same as proposed in previous studies and is a
small-scale open pit "strip" mine which will commence with the excavation of
numerous discrete pits, with the waste placed in surface landforms. As mining
continues, the resulting pit voids are available to take the waste from the
next mining area, beneficiation plant rejects and leach plant tailings, which
allows progressive backfilling and rehabilitation. This mining method will
result in "real-time continuous rehabilitation" including a smaller
environmental footprint at any given time and significant savings in waste
movement and rehabilitation costs. Mining has been costed using an owner
mining model, the same as reported in the FEED Study 24 .
Details of the material assumptions applied to define the mining inventory can
be found in ASX Release: "Updated production target improves economics at
Tiris", dated 11 September 2024.
Expansion schedule cases - Alternative Production Targets
The alternative production targets were established utilising the same mining
inventory as reported with the September Production Target update, with mine
scheduling completed at higher mining rates, to assess the value of
accelerating production from the third year of operation. The scheduling
objectives for each option schedule, in order of priority applied, were:
§ Limit the proportion of Inferred Mineral Resources mined to less than 10%
of feed in first four years and less than 20% in the first ten years and 25%
over the Life of Mine ('LOM')
§ Maximise cashflow by targeting high value mining areas early in the LOM
§ Maximise utilisation of leach plant modules - 260,000t concentrate per
annum per module
§ Maximise utilisation of each precipitation plant module - 3.0Mlbs. U(3)O(8)
per annum per module
§ Maximise utilisation of each beneficiation plant module - each 1.2Mt plant
feed per plant per annum
§ Minimise the number beneficiation plant locations during the first 3 years
of the project to reduce project complexity at startup
§ Minimise the number of beneficiation plant relocations - estimated to
require three months downtime per relocation
§ Minimise mining cost by reducing haulage distance from pits to the
beneficiation plant
§ Minimise mining cost by levelling activity rates
§ The analysis demonstrated that for production rates of over 4Mlbspa the
constraints limiting the percentage of Inferred material could not be met and
would require additional Inferred Resources to be upgraded to Measured and
Indicated Resources
The total processing modules for each scenario has been summarised in Table 5.
Cases Expansion Production Modules
Year
Mining rate Beneficiation Plant Processing Plant Modules Packing Plant Modules
Mtpa Modules # #
#
Base case N/A 4.1 4 2 1
Option 1 3 6.25 5 3 1
Option 2 3 8.2 7 4 2
Table 5 - Expansion scenario module configurations
The site layout for each scenario can be seen in Figure 2 to 3.
Figure 2 - Site layout for Option 1 - 6.25Mtpa mining to produce ~3Mlbspa
U(3)O(8) Production Target schedule over mine life
Figure 3 - Site layout for Option 2 - 8.2Mtpa mining to produce ~4Mlbspa
U(3)O(8) Production Target schedule over mine life
The physicals by Mineral Resource area for the alternative Production Targets
for expansion options are shown in Table 6 and the physicals charts by mining
area by year for each option is shown in Figure 4 to Figure 5. The physicals
were maintained from the September 2024 production target update, with
alternative production targets only representing an acceleration of mining and
processing rates.
Mineral Resource Area Total Movement Strip Ratio Beneficiation Plant Feed Process Plant Feed Recovered Metal
Rock Waste Feed U(3)0(8) U(3)O(8) Feed U(3)0(8) U(3)O(8) U(3)O(8)
MT MT MT ppm Mlbs MT ppm Mlbs Mlbs
Lazare North 31 18 1.4 13 287 8.1 2 2,208 7.4 6.8
Lazare South 30 13 0.8 17 246 9.1 2 2,191 8.7 8.0
Sadi 63 28 0.8 35 216 16.6 4 1,889 15.9 14.7
Hippolyte North 28 12 0.7 16 292 10.5 3 1,479 9.0 8.3
Hippolyte South 0 0 0.0 0 234 0.0 0 0 0.0 0.0
Total 152 71 0.9 81 250 44.3 11 1,880 41.0 37.9
Table 6 - Summary physicals by Mineral Resource area
Note: There is a low level of geological confidence associated with Inferred
Resources and there is no certainty that further exploration or evaluation
work will result in the determination of Indicated Resources or that the
production targets reported in this announcement will be realised. The Company
confirms that the use of Inferred Resources is not a determining factor to the
Tiris Uranium Project's economic viability.
Figure 4 - Mining physicals by location for Option 1 - 3Mlbspa Production
Target schedule
Note: There is a low level of geological confidence associated with Inferred
Resources and there is no certainty that further exploration or evaluation
work will result in the determination of Indicated Resources or that the
production targets reported in this announcement will be realised. The Company
confirms that the use of Inferred Resources is not a determining factor to the
Tiris Uranium Project's economic viability.
The mining physicals at a mining rate of 6.25Mtpa for target production rate
of ~3Mlbspa U(3)O(8) (Option 1), remain similar to the base case 25 (#_ftn25)
, with mining predominantly from the Lazare North, Lazare South and Sadi areas
for the first 10 years. During this period a single beneficiation module will
be located in the Hippolyte North location to target high value blocks.
Figure 5 - Mining physicals by location for Option 2 - 4Mlbspa Production
Target schedule
Note: There is a low level of geological confidence associated with Inferred
Resources and there is no certainty that further exploration or evaluation
work will result in the determination of Indicated Resources or that the
production targets reported in this announcement will be realised. The Company
confirms that the use of Inferred Resources is not a determining factor to the
Tiris Uranium Project's economic viability.
The mining physicals for Option 2, with a mining rate of 8.2Mtpa targeting
production of ~4Mlbspa U(3)O(8) show that a second beneficiation module can be
located at Hippolyte North to maintain throughput at target grades.
Mining cost estimation
Mining has been costed using an owner mining model, the same as was used in
the February 2024 FEED study 26 (#_ftn26) . The mining costs were estimated
using the project cost and financial models which can be found in the FEED
study release.
Ore Reserve estimate
There are no Ore Reserves reported from the expansion analysis. The mine
schedule optimisation study has not been undertaken to a suitable level for
Ore Reserve Reporting. There is still work required which is currently in
progress before an Ore Reserve can be estimated based on the June 2024 Mineral
Resource.
Production schedule options
An updated production schedule was developed for each option based on pit
optimisation from the updated production target. The production targets were
constrained by maintaining full utilisation of the leaching circuits, with
mining rate and uranium oxide concentrate production rate allowed to vary to
maintain this condition as defined under scheduling objectives.
The updated production schedule, for the base case and each expansion scenario
has been summarised in Figure 6.
Figure 6: - Comparison of mined ore production schedule between FEED
production targetF 27 and the alternative Production Target schedules
Note: There is a low level of geological confidence associated with Inferred
Resources and there is no certainty that further exploration or evaluation
work will result in the determination of Indicated Resources or that the
production targets reported in this announcement will be realised. The Company
confirms that the use of Inferred Resources is not a determining factor to the
Tiris Uranium Project's economic viability.
A focus was maintained on minimisation the proportion of Inferred material in
the first 10 years of operation. The updated mining schedule only includes
between 7% (Option 1) and 8% (Option 2) Inferred Resources in the first five
years and between 20% (Option 1) and 21% (Option 2) in the first ten years of
operation. Over the LOM, the proportion of Inferred Resources material was
26%. The Project remains strongly viable with removal of Inferred Resources
material.
The Company confirms that the use of Inferred Resources is not a determining
factor to the Tiris Project's economic viability. Therefore, the forecast
financial information of not including the Inferred Resources in the
Production Target is not considered material in this release.
The very shallow mine depth and low stripping ratio gives the Company a very
flexible mine schedule if any of the early inferred mine plan does not come
in. As such, if a portion of the mine plan Inferred Resource does not convert
then other resources can be bought forward in the schedule.
Other Inferred Resources can be brought into the back end of the plan if early
Inferred Resources aren't proven up, due to the flexibility around shallow
depths and very low stripping ratios.
In addition, only 50% of the total Tiris Uranium Project and 26% of the
defined Inferred Resources are being used in the production targets. Other
Inferred Resources can be upgraded and brought into the back end of the mine
plan if early Inferred Resources aren't proven up, due to the flexibility
around shallow depths and very low stripping ratios. The existence of these
other Inferred Resources and the flexibility to utilise them if required,
increases confidence in the life of mine plan, production targets and forecast
financial information.
The production target profile by resource category for each scenario can be
seen in Figure 7 and Figure 8.
Figure 7: 6.25Mtpa mining rate, with target production of ~3Mlbspa U(3)O(8)
mine schedule ore profile (Option 1) by area
Note: There is a low level of geological confidence associated with Inferred
Resources and there is no certainty that further exploration or evaluation
work will result in the determination of Indicated Resources or that the
production targets reported in this announcement will be realised. The Company
confirms that the use of Inferred Resources is not a determining factor to the
Tiris Uranium Project's economic viability.
Figure 8: 8.2Mtpa mining rate, with target production of ~4Mlbspa U(3)O(8)
mine schedule ore profile (Option 2) by area
Note: There is a low level of geological confidence associated with Inferred
Resources and there is no certainty that further exploration or evaluation
work will result in the determination of Indicated Resources or that the
production targets reported in this announcement will be realised. The Company
confirms that the use of Inferred Resources is not a determining factor to the
Tiris Uranium Project's economic viability.
The updated Base Case concentrate grade profile for U(3)O(8) compared to the
expansion cases has been presented in Figure 9, demonstrating an average
concentrate grade to leaching of 1,756ppm U(3)O(8) life of mine, this
increases to 1,880ppm U(3)O(8) for the expansion scenarios. A full description
of concentration of uranium through the beneficiation circuit by scrubbing and
screening, including recovery assumptions, can be found in the ASX and AIM
Release, 'Tiris Uranium Project Enhanced Definitive Feasibility Study', 29
March 2023.
Figure 9: Concentrate grade profile for alternative Production Target
schedules highlighting higher leach feed grade profile in early years
The alternative Production Target profiles for each option analysed can be
seen in Figure 10. This demonstrates that although production was targeted to
achieve ~3 and ~4 Mlbspa U(3)O(8) production at mining rates of 6.25Mtpa and
8.2Mtpa respectively, these were difficult to achieve consistently over the
life of the Project. This was mainly attributed to depletion of higher-grade
mining blocks and the need to keep the beneficiation modules at resource areas
to complete mining lower grade blocks before the module could be moved. The
Company believes that with further exploration success adding to the mineral
resource inventory that the production targets will be able to be sustained
for longer periods as well as extending the currently defined mine life.
Figure 10: Uranium oxide production profile for base case scenario and each
alternative Production Target schedule
Capital cost estimate
The FEED Capital Cost Estimate ('CAPEX') for the development of Tiris has been
applied for the production capacity scenarios used in the analysis and using a
design based on a single modular processing train. The estimate is shown in
Table 7.
Area Base Case Option 1 Option 2
4.1Mtpa mining 6.25Mtpa mining 8.2Mtpa mining
~2Mlbspa U(3)O(8) (~3Mlbspa U(3)O(8)) (~4Mlbspa U(3)O(8))
US$M US$M US$M
Mining 4.3 8.0 11.2
Beneficiation 25.6 31.9 44.7
Processing 84.2 122.0 168.3
Infrastructure 54.1 71.9 101.0
EPCM 22.5 29.5 43.2
Owner's cost 19.3 25.6 37.2
Contingency 20.1 28.0 39.7
Total CAPEX 230.0 316.9 445.2
Table 7: - Project CAPEX - FEED 202427F 28 (#_ftn28)
Operating cost estimate
The operating cost estimate inputs were maintained from the FEED study(29),
with no changes made to unit input costs. The updated schedule did result in
some changes to the mining fleet requirements and a higher strip ratio than
the FEED production schedule, which resulted in a modest increase in unit
operating cost. This also resulted in modest reductions in fixed costs
(labour, power, maintenance) with increased production rates.
The operating cost estimate has been summarised in Table 8. The average LOM C1
cash cost will range from US$27.7/lb U(3)O(8) for the base case to US$28/lb
U(3)O(8) at 8.2Mtpa mining rate (~4Mlbspa U(3)O(8) capacity). LOM AISC,
inclusive of royalties, LOM sustaining capital, insurances and product
transport will be US$35.7/lb U(3)O(8) for the base case to US$31.9/lb U(3)O(8)
for the 8.2Mtpa mining rate (~4Mlbspa U(3)O(8) capacity) case. These costs
have been estimated as an average of annualised expenditure.
Area Base Case Option 1 Option 2
4.1Mtpa mining 6.25Mtpa mining 8.2Mtpa mining
~2Mlbspa U(3)O(8) (~3Mlbspa U(3)O(8)) (~4Mlbspa U(3)O(8))
Sept 2024 Dec 2024 Dec 2024
US$/lb U(3)O(8) US$/lb U(3)O(8) US$/lb U(3)O(8)
Owner Mining 9.2 8.8 8.8
Labour 2.0 1.5 1.3
Reagents 7.0 6.8 6.8
Power 8.2 7.1 7.4
Maintenance 1.8 1.2 1.2
Environment 0.6 0.6 0.6
Site G&A 2.5 1.7 1.7
CASH COST 31.4 27.7 28.0
Transport & Marketing 0.5 0.5 0.5
Royalties 2.8 2.8 2.8
Communities 0.8 0.8 0.8
Sustaining Capital 0.2 0.2 0.2
ALL-IN-SUSTAINING COST 35.7 31.8 31.9
Table 8: - Operating cost estimates of each scenario compared to the FEED
update
Market analysis
Aura has maintained the uranium market assumptions outlined in the 2024 FEED
study 29 , with a long-term price assumption of US$80/lb U(3)O(8). These
assumptions remain valid with no material changes.
Financial analysis
Financial analysis of the Tiris Project is inclusive of Mauritanian government
royalties and commitments relating to the offtake agreement with Curzon
Resources 30 . This is outlined in the ASX announcement 'Update to Curzon
Offtake Agreement', dated 16 April 2024.
Results are on an after-tax basis in $USD, unless otherwise stated. Financial
modelling is inclusive of all capital items, including mining mobilisation,
process plant, project infrastructure and LOM sustaining capital.
Table 9 shows the variance in NPV(8), IRR, payback period and net cashflows
between the production target update and the options analysed. Applying a base
case uranium price of US$80/lb U(3)O(8), the September 2024 production target
update gave a post-tax NPV(8) of the Tiris Project of US$499M, post-tax IRR of
39%, and project payback of 2.25 years from commencement of production. At
this price the project generates average annual free cashflows post-tax of
US$89M per annum for the first five years and US$60M per annum over average
over the entire mine life.
The best expansion opportunity analysed was considered to be the 6.25Mtpa
mining rate (3Mlbspa U(3)O(8) capacity) case - Option 1. For this scenario an
NPV(8) of approximately US$544M was estimated with IRR of ~45% and payback of
2.5 years. At this mining rate the project generates average approximate
annual free cashflows post-tax of US$116M per annum for the first five years
after expansion and US$86M per annum over the entire mine life. This case will
not replace the current base case, however it provides an assessment of
potential growth once the Tiris base case has entered production.
It should be noted that for cases with production rates greater than 4Mlbs per
annum U(3)O(8), the project economics are strongly influenced by the expansion
capital required and short mine life based on the current Mineral Resource
base. There is considerable opportunity to optimise the capital requirements
through consolidation of modules with higher throughput. The Company will
continue to assess the opportunities for capital reduction at higher
throughputs.
The Tiris area is highly prospective, and the Company strongly believes there
will be significant future growth in the Mineral Resource inventory through
exploration and this would further support the economics of a future expansion
of the Project. Very significant areas of undrilled radiometric anomalies
exist with the Tiris East area within Aura's tenements and within the adjacent
tenement applications, Figure 11.
Units Base Case Option 1 Option 2
4.1Mtpa mining 6.25Mtpa mining 8.2Mtpa mining
(2Mlbspa U(3)O(8)) (~3Mlbspa U(3)O(8)) (~4Mlbspa U(3)O(8))
Sept 24(1)
Uranium Price US$/lb U(3)O(8) $80 $80 $80
Valuations and Returns
Post-tax NPV(8) US$M 499 544 521
Post-tax IRR % 39% 45% 41%
Payback period Years 2.25 2.5 3.25
Cashflow Summary
Initial Life of Mine Years 25 18 16
LOM Production Mlbspa U(3)O(8) 43.5 37.9 37.9
Annual Production Mlbspa U(3)O(8) 1.8 2.3 2.9
Gross Revenue (LOM) US$M 3,467 2,898 2,898
Free Cashflow pre-tax (LOM) US$M 1,922 1,817 1,813
Free Cashflow post tax (LOM) US$M 1,509 1,457 1,484
Unit Operating Costs
All in Cost US$/lb U(3)O(8) 41.0 40.2 43.7
All-in Sustaining Costs US$/lb U(3)O(8) 35.7 31.8 31.9
C1 Cash Cost US$/lb U(3)O(8) 31.4 27.7 27.9
Operating Margin US$/lb U(3)O(8) 44.3 48.8 48.1
Operating Margin % 55% 60% 60%
Capital Cost
Development Capital US$M 230 317 445
Table 9: - Summary of outputs recommended for presentation of Production
Target updates and the scenarios analysed
Figure 11: Radiometrics, tenement boundaries, prospect locations, Mineral
Resource boundaries reported in 2024 and 2023, along with drilling completed
during the current and prior programs
Sensitivity Analysis
The sensitivity of the project to key variables was examined in Figure 12 for
Option 1 expansion to 6.25Mtpa throughput and Figure 13 for Option 2 for
8.2Mtpa throughput. This showed that the Project was most sensitive to revenue
drivers, including mined grade and U(3)O(8) spot price. The Project was least
sensitive to operating cost inputs.
Figure 12 - Sensitivity analysis for alternative Production Target, Option 1
expanding from 4.1Mtpa mining rate to 6.25Mtpa mining rate in year 3 of
operation
Figure 13 - Sensitivity analysis for alternative Production Target, Option 2
expanding from 4.1Mtpa mining rate to 8.2Mtpa mining rate in year 3 of
operation
Project risk
The key risks with their mitigations, are identified as follows:
§ Uranium price: The Project's success is dependent on the price of uranium
exceeding the operating cost of the project for the life of the project. Aura
is in the process of seeking additional offtake agreements with suitable
long-term pricing, to minimise the risk of the market price being outside of
Aura's control
§ Capital costs: The estimated capital costs for the project could prove
optimistic, requiring additional funding. The Capex estimate was composed of
85% external pricing 31 (#_ftn31) , so has a strong basis for its pricing,
subject to any subsequent inflation. The project will rely on competent
Project cost control by the EPC company overviewing the project
§ Health and safety risk: Occupational health and safety (OHS) management
risk of radioactive dust in the mining and production areas. Aura will ensure
operators are in dust sealed cabins, use radiation monitoring badges and will
rotate personnel as necessary. There are also risks from terror groups in the
Sahel region. Aura has provisionally arranged for military supported security
to be permanently based close to the site. Aura will continue with its very
close coordination with police/gendarmes/military guarding the area
§ Government approvals: There are potential risks in obtaining Mauritanian
statutory permit approvals, in the time required. Aura is continuing on
high-level relationships between Government authorities and its senior
management, to assist the usual project interfaces between Aura's local
permitting supervisor and Government authorities. It is expected given Aura's
focus on maximising local employment, that the Mauritanian Government will
continue to be supportive
§ Water supply: A risk remains of insufficient water being available for the
project. A program designed to mitigate the risk that includes the drilling
and test work of the Taoudeni Basin is currently underway with significant
water quantities having been identified by drilling and it is expected that
there will be more than sufficient quantities of water available for the
Project
§ Power supply: Aura's hybrid diesel and solar generation plant will be the
only power source for the Project. Aura shall undertake rigorous engineering
selection of the power generation supply and hire experienced and competent
electrical support personnel to maintain the power plant
Future activities
The next steps in progressing towards the construction and development of the
Project planned for 2024 and early 2025 include:
§ Project funding inclusive of debt, strategic investors and equity
§ Securing offtake contracts for future production
§ Water drill hole and aquifer testing to demonstrate that sufficient water
resources will be available for the Project. Drilling has been completed with
significant water flows having been intersected both at the Taoudeni Basin,
~120km south of the Project and the more proximal C22 target
§ Engagement with qualified EPCM contractors for project development
§ Additional engineering and design work to support development activities
§ Update of Ore Reserve estimate
§ Completion of Project Execution Plan
§ Final Investment Decision - March quarter 2025
1 ASX and AIM Release: 11 September 2024 - Updated Production Target
Improves Economics at Tiris. All currencies' used in this document are
calculated using the average AUD:USD exchange rate of 0.68
2 ASX and AIM Release: 12 June 2024- Aura Increases Tiris Mineral Resources
by 55% to 91.3Mlbs
3 ASX and AIM Release: 11 September 2024 - Updated Production Target
Improves Economics at Tiris
4 ASX and AIM Release: 12 June 2024- Aura Increases Tiris Mineral Resources
by 55% to 91.3Mlbs
5 ASX and AIM Release: 28 Feb 2024 - FEED study confirms excellent economics
for the Tiris Uranium Project
6 ASX and AIM Release: 11 Sept 2024 - Updated Production Target improves
economics at Tiris Uranium Project
7 ASX and AIM Release: 12 June 2024- Aura Increases Tiris Mineral Resources
by 55% to 91.3Mlbs
8 ASX and AIM Release: 12 June 2024- Aura Increases Tiris Mineral Resources
by 55% to 91.3Mlbs
9 ASX and AIM Release: 28 February 2024 - Aura's Tiris FEED Study Returns
Excellent Economics
10 ASX and AIM Release: 11 September 2024 - Updated Production Target
Improves Economics at Tiris
11 ASX and AIM Release: 28 February 2024 - Aura's Tiris FEED Study Returns
Excellent Economics
12 ASX and AIM Release: 12 June 2024 - Aura Increases Tiris Mineral
Resources by 55% to 91.3Mlbs
13 ASX and AIM Release: 29 July 2019 - Tiris Uranium DFS Complete
14 ASX and AIM Release: 18 August 2021 - Capital Estimate Update Tiris
Uranium project
15 ASX and AIM Release: 28 March 2023 - Tiris Uranium Project Enhanced
Definitive Feasibility Study
16 ASX and AIM Release: 13 February 203 - Major Resource Upgrade at Aura
Energy's Tiris Project
17 ASX and AIM Release: 8 February 2019 - Tiris Uranium Project Exploitation
License Granted
18 ASX and AIM Release: 31 January 2023 - Transformational Agreements for
Tiris Project Mauritania
19 ASX and AIM Release: 15 July 2024 - Tiris Project fully permitted for
development and operations
20 ASX and AIM Release: 12 June 2024- Aura Increases Tiris Mineral Resources
by 55% to 91.3Mlbs
21 ASX and AIM Release: 11 September 2024 - Updated Production Target
Improves Economics at Tiris
22 ASX and AIM Release: 11 September 2024 - Updated Production Target
Improves Economics at Tiris
23 ASX and AIM Release: 12 June 2024 - Aura Increases Tiris Mineral
Resources By 55% to 91.3Mlbs
24 ASX and AIM Release: 28 February 2024 - Aura's Tiris FEED Study Returns
Excellent Economics
25 ASX and AIM Release: 11 September 2024 - Updated Production Target
Improves Economics at Tiris
26 ASX and AIM Release: 28 February 2024 - Aura's Tiris FEED Study Returns
Excellent Economics
27 ASX and AIM Release: 28 February 2024 - Aura's Tiris FEED Study Returns
Excellent Economics
28 ASX and AIM Release: 28 February 2024 - Aura's Tiris FEED Study Returns
Excellent Economics
29 ASX and AIM Release: 28 February 2024 - Aura's Tiris FEED Study Returns
Excellent Economics
30 ASX and AIM Release: 16 April 2024 - Update to Curzon Offtake Agreement
31 ASX and AIM Release: 28 February 2024 - Aura's Tiris FEED Study Returns
Excellent Economics
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