U.S. natgas futures up 2% as heat wave boosts cooling demand
25/07/2022 14:51
July 25 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures rose more than
2% on Monday driven by higher demand for cooling due to an
ongoing heat wave in the United States.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 on the New York Mercantile
Exchange (NYMEX) were up 12.5 cents, or 1.5%, to $8.424 per
million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 9:44 a.m. EDT (1344
GMT), the contract hits its highest in over a month earlier in
the session.
"It is looking much warmer than normal, which is driving
demand," Robert DiDona of Energy Ventures Analysis said.
Virtually all of the contiguous United States experienced
above normal temperatures in the past week, with further
dangerously hot weather forecast. The U.S. heat wave followed
record heat that killed hundreds if not thousands of people and
sparked wildfires in Europe. urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL1N2Z31XM urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL8N2Z261T
"Bullish stance still advised in a market that should be
approached strictly from the long side with upside now existing
to the $9.00 area," Ritterbusch and Associates wrote in a note.
Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S.
Lower 48 states has risen to 96.1 bcfd so far in July from 95.3
bcfd in June
"Once the short term heat wave is over, traders will be
focused on weather end of summer injection season levels are
relative to the five year norm, which we're forecasting to be
behind the five year average causing some fundamental tightness
heading into the winter," DiDona added.
The U.S. oil and natural gas rig count last week rose for a
third week as high prices encouraged spending at the wellpad,
boosting demand for some oilfield services companies.
urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL1N2Z319M
A repaired gas turbine will be installed in the Nord Stream
1 pipeline from Russia to Germany once it is returned after
maintenance, and natural gas will then be supplied in
"corresponding volumes", a Kremlin spokesman said. urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL8N2Z629S
Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year
Jul 22 Jul 15 Jul 22 average
(Forecast) (Actual) Jul 22
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): +30 +32 +38 +32
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 2,431 2,401 2,709 2,761
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average -12.0% -12.0%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year
Last Year Average Average
2021 (2017-2021)
Henry Hub NGc1 8.39 7.81 3.82 3.73 2.89
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 50.22 48.85 12.49 16.04 7.49
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 38.10 38.10 13.77 18.00 8.95
Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year
Norm Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs 4 3 2 2 3
U.S. GFS CDDs 235 257 207 210 203
U.S. GFS TDDs 239 260 209 212 206
Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week Current Week Next Week This Week Five-Year
Last Year Average For
Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 96.3 96.3 96.6 93.4 85.6
U.S. Imports from Canada 8.1 8.3 8.1 8.2 8.1
U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
Total U.S. Supply 104.4 104.6 104.7 101.6 93.8
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada 2.2 2.4 2.2 2.0 2.3
U.S. Exports to Mexico 6.2 5.5 6.0 6.5 5.2
U.S. LNG Exports 10.8 10.7 9.9 10.8 4.5
U.S. Commercial 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4
U.S. Residential 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.5 3.6
U.S. Power Plant 45.7 43.4 42.6 42.1 39.6
U.S. Industrial 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.0 20.8
U.S. Plant Fuel 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.7
U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.0
U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Total U.S. Consumption 82.0 79.6 78.9 78.1 75.2
Total U.S. Demand 101.1 98.22 97.1 97.4 87.2
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended
Jul 22 Jul 15 Jul 8 Jul 1 Jun 24
Wind
Solar
Hydro
Other
Petroleum
Natural Gas
Coal
Nuclear
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub Current Day Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL 8.25 7.99
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL 8.75 9.46
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL 8.97 8.89
Dominion South NG-PCN-APP-SNL 7.70 7.47
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL 8.06 7.75
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL 9.30 23.50
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL 8.76 8.71
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL 7.63 7.53
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL 4.77 4.26
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub Current Day
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL 155.75 240.50
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL 130.75 156.50
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL 92.00 118.00
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL 126.00 59.33
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL 110.75 108.00
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL 105.00 92.75
(Reporting by Ashitha Shivaprasad and Bharat Govind Gautam in
Bengaluru
Editing by Bernadette Baum)
((Ashitha.Shivaprasad@thomsonreuters.com;))
((For Refinitiv type ENERGY in Eikon search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down or see: cpurl://apps.cp./cms/?pageid=usa-gas
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Reuters Eikon terminal.
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET ) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C ))
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