Live Markets: UK GDP: signals beneath the smooth surface
30/09/2025 10:37
Adds new blog entry STOXX 600 down 0.3% UBS slams Swiss capital plan Energy leads fallers Nasdaq futures inch lower Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com UK GDP: SIGNALS BENEATH THE SMOOTH SURFACE UK GDP figures for Q2 may not be headline, but with an Autumn Budget on the horizon and Labour's annual conference in full swing, they will be firmly on policymakers' minds "There is no good news for the Chancellor in this latest economic data, but there’s no worse news either," writes Danni Hewson, AJ Bell head of financial analysis. The numbers showed GDP growth slowed to 0.3% in April to June, unrevised from initial ONS estimates and in line with economists' expectations in a Reuters poll. But beneath the surface, a few mostly positive signals stand out.For Thomas Pugh, chief economist at RSM UK, the uptick in the household saving ratio - from 10.5% to 10.7% - is telling. "This was driven by an increase in non-pension saving suggesting that consumer caution after April’s tax and tariff increases prompted households to save more," he said. "Indeed, household spending growth remained weak at just 0.1% q/q." AJ Bell's Hewson also noted the pickup in the household savings ratio, which she said reflected "restraint" among consumers in the face of a weakening jobs market and a slower economy. Such caution might filter into Reeves' options ahead of the November 26 Autumn Budget. Paul Dales, chief UK economist at Capital Economics points out that while Q2 went unrevised, the annual growth rate was revised up from 1.2% to 1.4%, and "the shape of growth was a little more encouraging". "Most striking was that the change in business investment was revised from -4.0% q/q to -1.1% q/q," he said. Investec economists point to much firmer dwellings investment, up 3.1% q/q rather than 0.5%. (Lucy Raitano) ***** EARLIER ON LIVE MARKETS: STOXX DIPS, FINANCIALS OUTPERFORM CLICK HERE EUROPE BEFORE THE BELL: MUTED START AS Q3 WRAPS UP CLICK HERE BONFIRE OF THE VANITIES CLICK HERE eu open https://tmsnrt.rs/4nDhDEr