CEE MARKETS-Central European currencies weaken, Ukraine peace plan in focus

Bank Millennium SA

21/11/2025 10:34

WARSAW, Nov 21 (Reuters) - Central European currencies weakened on Friday as investors waited for more details on a U.S.-backed plan to end the war in Ukraine.

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he was ready for "honest" work with Washington on the plan, which would require Kyiv to give up the entire Donbas region and significantly downsize its military.

The Hungarian forint EURHUF= weakened 0.5% to 383.80 per euro after strengthening to a 22-month high earlier this week as Hungary's central bank reiterated its message that tight monetary policy was needed.

"The forint's strengthening stalled near 382 in yesterday's trading, some correction began in the exchange rate, with key support lying at 382, while short-term resistance levels are seen at 384 and then 385," Brokerage Equilor said in a note.

The Hungarian central bank left its base rate steady at the European Union's joint-highest level of 6.5% on Tuesday amid fiscal loosening, high inflation expectations and uncertainty over the inflation outlook after next year's parliamentary election.

However, the forint could return to gains if there was progress with the peace plan for Ukraine.

"For now, the main focus should continue to be on the Hungarian forint, which is the main beneficiary of the potential ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia in our view... This could be the key to testing 380 EUR/HUF," ING analysts said.

The forint eased further on Friday after the National Bank of Hungary announced that Deputy Governor Barnabas Virag resigned and that parliament would hear deputy governor nominee Peter Beno Banai next week.

"Some foreign investors probably thought that this could mean a change in the bank's monetary policy, but I think that the central bank's monetary policy will not be different after this," an FX trader in Budapest said.

The Czech central bank also left its main rate on hold, at 3.50%, this month and most analysts expect steady rates going into next year.

The crown EURCZK= was 0.2% weaker on Friday at 24.225 per euro, with investors waiting for Czech GDP data next week.

In Poland, the zloty EURPLN= also lost 0.2% to 4.245 per euro.

Analysts said the main event of the day could be a debt auction with a supply of 6 to 10 billion zlotys. The finance ministry will offer bonds based on the POLSTR index, which is intended to ultimately replace the currently used WIBOR rate.

Bourses in the region followed global stock markets lower as the U.S. jobs data failed to provide clarity on the near-term path for interest rates, and investors returned to dumping risk assets.

CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT 1044 CET
CURRENCIES
Latest trade
Previous close
Daily change
Change in 2025
Czech crown
EURCZK=
24.2250
24.1840
-0.17%
+4.06%
Hungary forint
EURHUF=
383.8000
381.9000
-0.50%
+7.20%
Polish zloty
EURPLN=
4.2450
4.2360
-0.21%
+0.75%
Romanian leu
EURRON=
5.0895
5.0890
-0.01%
-2.22%
Serbian dinar
EURRSD=
117.2400
117.2900
+0.04%
-0.25%
Note: daily change calculated from 1800 CET
STOCKS
Latest
Previous close
Daily change
Change in 2025
Prague
.PX
2435.86
2458.9100
-0.94%
+38.39%
Budapest
.BUX
106538.48
107565.55
-0.95%
+34.30%
Warsaw
.WIG20
2907.48
2958.02
-1.71%
+32.64%
Bucharest
.BETI
22604.85
23137.29
-2.30%
+35.19%
BONDS
Yield (bid)
Yield change
Spread vs Bund
Daily change in spread
Czech Rep 2-year
CZ2YT=RR
3.6070
-0.0100
+160bps
+1bps
Czech Rep 5-year
CZ5YT=RR
4.1100
-0.0060
+184bps
+3bps
Czech Rep 10-year
CZ10YT=RR
4.6030
-0.0300
+192bps
+0bps
Poland 2-year
PL2YT=RR
4.1630
-0.1370
+216bps
-12bps
Poland 5-year
PL5YT=RR
4.7320
-0.0100
+247bps
+2bps
Poland 10-year
PL10YT=RR
5.3440
-0.0430
+266bps
-1bps
FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS
3x6
6x9
9x12
3M interbank
Czech Rep
CZKFRA, PRIBOR=
3.63
3.65
3.69
3.56
Poland
PLNFRA, WIBOR=
3.84
3.69
3.64
4.25
Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices

 (Reporting by Anna Wlodarczak-Semczuk in Warsaw and Anita Komuves in Budapest; Editing by Ros Russell)

 ((breaking-news-cee@thomsonreuters.com))