CEE MARKETS-Zloty inches back towards seven-month high, other currencies steady

Bank Millennium SA

15/12/2025 10:22

PRAGUE, Dec 15 (Reuters) - The Polish zloty edged back towards a seven-month high on Monday and other central European currencies steadied after falling from peaks, as markets awaited clues on the outlook for Czech and Hungarian interest rates.

Globally, investors were focused on upcoming U.S. economic data this week, keeping trade cautious and seeking direction.

In central Europe, analysts expect the central banks of the  Czech Republic and Hungary to keep rates on hold but will be scrutinising policymakers' comments for any indication of how long they might keep their easing cycles on pause.

Polish inflation data on Monday was revised a touch higher. Poland's central bank has been cutting rates this year - causing the zloty to underperform peers as policy stays on hold elsewhere in the region - but has signalled limited scope for further moves ahead.

The zloty EURPLN= inched up 0.2% to 4.2195 per euro on Monday, testing a high of 4.218 seen at the end of November. A break beyond that high would put the zloty at its strongest levels since early April.

"The EUR/PLN exchange rate has been near this level for some time, so an improvement in sentiment could see it broken," Millennium Bank said.

RATES ON HOLD

Stock markets edged higher, with Warsaw .WIG20 outperforming and gaining 1.7%. Polish footwear and fashion retailer CCC's CCCP.WA shares jumped nearly 8% after two shareholders submitted requests for the company to run share buybacks.

Among currencies, the Hungarian forint and Czech crown were a touch stronger after falling from more than two-year highs since early December.

A Reuters poll on Friday showed analysts expect the Hungarian central bank to leave rates unchanged for a 15th straight month when it meets on Tuesday. The median forecast in the survey projects 50 basis points of rate easing by the end of next year.

The forint EURHUF= was up a tad at 385.35 at 0957 GMT.

"While sequential headline and core inflation has been consistently below target for more than six months and HUF strength implies that further downside surprises to inflation are likely in the coming months, we expect (Hungary's) MNB to maintain a relatively cautious stance for now," Goldman Sachs said.

The Czech crown EURCZK= traded a touch higher at 24.288 per euro, off a peak of 24.1 hit at the start of the month.

The Czech central bank, which meets on Thursday, last cut rates in May and some analysts say they could remain unchanged  for all of 2026.

CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT 1057 CET
CURRENCIES
Latest trade
Previous close
Daily change
Change in 2025
Czech crown
EURCZK=
24.2880
24.2950
+0.03%
+3.79%
Hungary forint
EURHUF=
385.3500
385.6000
+0.06%
+6.77%
Polish zloty
EURPLN=
4.2195
4.2285
+0.21%
+1.36%
Romanian leu
EURRON=
5.0900
5.0920
+0.04%
-2.23%
Serbian dinar
EURRSD=
117.2800
117.3800
+0.09%
-0.28%
Note: daily change calculated from 1800 CET
STOCKS
Latest
Previous close
Daily change
Change in 2025
Prague
.PX
2576.79
2568.9400
+0.31%
+46.39%
Budapest
.BUX
109853.87
109607.58
+0.22%
+38.48%
Warsaw
.WIG20
3131.27
3079.15
+1.69%
+42.85%
Bucharest
.BETI
23851.98
23939.66
-0.37%
+42.65%
BONDS
Yield (bid)
Yield change
Spread vs Bund
Daily change in spread
Czech Rep 2-year
CZ2YT=RR
3.5140
-0.0480
+136bps
-4bps
Czech Rep 5-year
CZ5YT=RR
4.1450
-0.0010
+168bps
+1bps
Czech Rep 10-year
CZ10YT=RR
4.6550
-0.0430
+181bps
-2bps
Poland 2-year
PL2YT=RR
4.0420
0.0050
+189bps
+1bps
Poland 5-year
PL5YT=RR
4.6650
0.0150
+220bps
+3bps
Poland 10-year
PL10YT=RR
5.3000
0.0000
+246bps
+2bps
FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS
3x6
6x9
9x12
3M interbank
Czech Rep
CZKFRA, PRIBOR=
3.58
3.62
3.65
3.54
Poland
PLNFRA, WIBOR=
3.75
3.61
3.58
4.06
Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices


 (Reporting by Jason Hovet in Prague, Krisztina Than in Budapest, Pawel Florkiewicz and Karol Badohal in Warsaw
Editing by Gareth Jones)

 ((breaking-news-cee@thomsonreuters.com))