Live Markets: Options markets expect a lively earnings season

Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft

09/10/2026 12:59

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OPTIONS MARKETS EXPECT A LIVELY EARNINGS SEASON 
It could be an action-packed earnings season. 
UBS say options markets are pricing for the most volatile set of US stock reactions to earnings since 2020, while for Europe it's the third-largest since that Covid period. 
They say: "This would continue the trend towards progressively more volatile earnings seasons, alongside excess dispersion, adding to the extreme gap between stock and index volatility." 
Tech stocks are expected to see the most volatility, with over a 7% move priced on average in both Europe and the US. Next week the focus will be on US banks (a 3-4% market reaction is priced), and in Europe there's ASML (4.9%) and LVMH (4.8%). 
Clearly France is in focus but UBS say they don't see any incremental risk premium being priced for French names around their results. 
One could imagine that's because the new source of volatility, politics and spreads, isn't going to be showing up in earnings. 
(Alun John)
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