US natgas slips for a fourth straight session on warm weather (updated)

Bluenord ASA

05/01/2026 19:51

Meteorologists predict nationwide warm spell through Jan. 20

Natgas futures risk sliding to $3 without weather boost, Ritterbusch says

JP Morgan expects US gas strength in 2026 on rising LNG feedgas demand

Updates with settlement price

By Anmol Choubey

Jan 5 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures dropped on Monday, marking a fourth consecutive session of losses pressured by forecasts for warmer weather nationwide and lower demand projections in the coming weeks.

Front-month gas futures for February delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange traded 9.5 cents lower, at $3.523 per million British thermal units, after hitting a low of $3.355 earlier in the session.

"This market is dropping into fresh new low territory... because weekend updates to the short-term temperature views failed to offer a significant change within the short-term forecasts," consultancy Ritterbusch & Associates said in a note.

Meteorologists predict warmer-than-average temperatures across the nation through Jan. 20, with Heating Degree Days expected to decline from 369 on Friday to 367 on Monday, remaining way below the 30-year normal level of 458. HDDs are a metric for gauging energy demand for heating buildings.

"Consequently, downside price risk in nearby futures now extends to the $3.00 area, achievement of such could be attained this week unless some weather support is forthcoming," Ritterbusch & Associates added.

   Financial firm LSEG forecasted average gas demand, including exports, in the U.S. Lower 48 states would rise marginally from 133.0 bcfd this week to 134.2 bcfd next week. The projection for this week is lower than Friday's estimate, while next week's outlook is slightly higher.

LSEG said average natural gas output in the lower 48 U.S. states climbed to 109.2 billion cubic feet per day in January, still below December's monthly record of 109.9 bcfd.

Average gas flows to the eight large U.S. LNG export facilities climbed to 18.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in January, exceeding December's record of 18.4 bcfd.

"We still believe our positive thesis will remain intact for 2026 largely on the back of rising feedgas demand for LNG, albeit in the later innings of our call as we do see some potential headwinds in the supply-demand picture for 2027," JP Morgan said in a note.

Elsewhere, wholesale gas prices in Europe and Britain fell on Monday morning after hitting a one-month high in the previous session, with traders taking some profit and as forecasts of less cold and windy weather eased gas demand. NG/EU

Meanwhile, Norwegian energy group Equinor EQNR.OL said on Friday it had filed a civil suit in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia challenging a U.S. Department of the Interior order to suspend its Empire Wind project.

Week ended Dec 26 Actual
Week ended Dec 19 Actual
Year ago 
Dec 26
Five-year average Dec 26
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):
-38
-166
-112
-120
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):
3,375
3,413
3,430
3,317
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average
1.6%
-0.7%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2020-2024)
Henry Hub NGc1
3.41
3.69
-
-
-
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1
9.45
9.84
-
-
-
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1
9.7
9.61
-
-
-
LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
Current Day
Prior Day
Prior Year
10-Year Norm
30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)
367
369
520
442
458
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)
4
4
0
3
3
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)
371
373
520
445
461
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week
Current Week
Next Week
This Week Last Year
Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
109.9
109.3
109.4
N/A
N/A
U.S. Imports from Canada
10.6
9.9
8.9
N/A
N/A
U.S. LNG Imports
0.1
0.1
0.0
N/A
N/A
Total U.S. Supply
120.5
119.3
118.4
N/A
N/A
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada
4.1
3.7
3.7
N/A
N/A
U.S. Exports to Mexico
5.5
5.5
5.6
N/A
N/A
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas
18.8
19.0
18.5
N/A
N/A
U.S. Commercial
16.9
15.0
15.5
N/A
N/A
U.S. Residential
28.1
24.4
25.6
N/A
N/A
U.S. Power Plant
31.0
32.1
31.5
N/A
N/A
U.S. Industrial
25.4
24.9
25.3
N/A
N/A
U.S. Plant Fuel
5.4
5.4
5.4
N/A
N/A
U.S. Pipe Distribution
2.9
2.8
2.8
N/A
N/A
U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1
0.1
0.1
N/A
N/A
Total U.S. Consumption
109.8
104.8
106.4
N/A
N/A
Total U.S. Demand
138.2
133.0
134.2
N/A
N/A
N/A = Not Available
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast
2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast
2025 % of Normal Actual
2024
% of Normal Actual
2023
% of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep
-
99
76
74
83
Jan-Jul
-
98
78
76
77
Oct-Sep
-
102
80
77
76
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
Week ended Jan 09
Week ended Jan 02
2024
2023
2022
Wind
8
14
11
10
11
Solar
4
4
5
4
3
Hydro
7
7
6
6
6
Other
1
1
1
2
2
Petroleum
0
0
0
0
0
Natural Gas
38
36
42
41
38
Coal
21
17
16
17
21
Nuclear
21
21
19
19
19
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2020-2024)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
-
4.00
-
-
-
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
-
4.28
-
-
-
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
-
2.98
-
-
-
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL
-
3.67
-
-
-
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
-
3.08
-
-
-
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
-
18.9
-
-
-
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
-
3.63
-
-
-
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
-
0.39
-
-
-
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL
-
2.53
-
-
-
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX
-
190
-
-
-
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX
56.05
62.91
-
-
-
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX
18.19
26.58
-
-
-
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX
27.44
26.67
-
---
-
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX
32.19
34.38
-
-
-

 (Reporting by Anmol Choubey in Bengaluru
Editing by Nick Zieminski and David Gregorio)

 ((anmol.choubey@thomsonreuters.com; +91-9473732332;))