French markets tumble after worst unrest in years

BNP Paribas SA

Mon 12:22

Updates prices to early afternoon trading
French 10-year yield rises 12 bps to 4.90%    
French stocks slide 1.5%, banks down around 3% 
Euro also falls, French CDS rises 
By Alun John
LONDON, Oct 19 (Reuters) - French bond prices slid sharply while Paris-listed stocks and the euro also fell on Monday, performing worse than other markets, after widespread protests across France underscored difficulties the government faces in reducing its large deficit. 
Already contending with weak growth and ballooning debt, the euro zone's second-biggest economy witnessed some of its worst unrest in years over the weekend. Thousands of people were arrested and shops were looted or damaged during protests over high prices and declining public services.
A slide in bond prices on Monday pushed France's 10-year yield up 12 basis points to 4.90% FR10YT=RR, while Germany's 10-year yield, the benchmark for the euro zone, rose 3 bps to 3.43%. DE10YT=RR 
The gap between them, a gauge of the premium investors require to lend to France rather than Germany, was 146 basis points, the highest in two weeks, though it has eased from the nearly 160 bps hit in early October. 
 At that point France's 10-year yield hit 4.99%, its highest since 2002. Yields are now heading back towards that level. 
 Investors say France needs to pass a budget bill to rein in its finances, but the protests demonstrate how difficult this could be. Political jostling ahead of next year's presidential election could further complicate matters.
"The fact this is coming after a weekend of protests shows that hopes for reform are in remission," said Hank Calenti, global market strategist at SMBC, referencing efforts to reduce deficits and reform pensions. 
 Calenti also noted the impact was being felt across the euro zone — he said investors' hoped-for reforms in several markets are looking less likely — and flagged that even German yields were higher on Monday while US yields fell. 
 Investors, worried the jump in French yields could spill over to other heavily indebted parts of the euro zone, see Italy as the first to watch. Its 10-year yield was up nearly 10 bps on Monday at 4.57%. IT10YT=RR 
The recent moves in French debt also illustrate how the growing role of hedge funds is making the market more vulnerable — a risk regulators are watching closely.
     
STOCKS AND EURO STRUGGLE 
French stocks were the worst performing among major European bourses. The blue-chip CAC 40 index was down 1.5%, compared to a 0.6% drop in broad European stocks .STOXX, while shares in two of France's biggest lenders, BNP Paribas BNPP.PA and Societe Generale SOGN.PA, each fell 3%. 
French banks tend to underperform when the gap between French and German bond yields rises, though French retailers were also under pressure. Carrefour CARR.PA, for example, fell 2%. Its CEO said the company's losses as a result of protest damage would run into the tens of millions of euros. 
 The cost of insuring French sovereign debt against an increase in default risk also rose. Its credit default swap rose 5 bps from Friday's close to 81 bps — still below the October 2 high of 89 bps but the worst performer on the day. FRGV5YUSAC=MG 
Ratings agency Moody's will review France's credit rating on Friday, which could result in a downgrade that, in turn, may add some pressure on the country's bonds. 
"As Moody's is merely catching up with other rating agencies, however, headwinds for spreads from the downgrade are likely to remain limited," analysts at Commerzbank said.
Developments in France weighed on the euro as well, which was down 0.2% to 0.3% on the dollar, pound and yen on Monday. EUR=, EURGBP=, EURJPY= 
     
     

(Reporting by Amanda Cooper and Alun John
Editing by Dhara Ranasinghe, David Goodman and Joe Bavier)