REG - BP PLC - 4Q25 bp Trading Statement Part 1 of 1

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RNS Number : 7726O  BP PLC  14 January 2026

 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
 London 14 January 2026
 BP p.l.c. Trading Statement

 

Fourth quarter 2025 trading statement

The following Trading Statement provides a summary of BP p.l.c.'s (bp) current
estimates and expectations for the fourth quarter of 2025, including data on
the economic environment as well as group performance during the period.

The information presented is not comprehensive of all factors which may impact
bp's group results for the fourth quarter 2025 and is not an estimate of those
results. Also refer to bp's third quarter 2025 group results announcement on 4
November 2025 for fourth quarter and full year 2025 guidance items which
continue to apply unless explicitly stated. A summary of that guidance is also
provided in the Appendix to this Trading Statement. All information provided
is subject to the finalization of bp's financial reporting processes and
actual results may vary.

bp's group results for the fourth quarter and full year 2025 are expected to
be published on 10 February 2026.

Updated 4Q25 guidance(a)

•       Reported upstream production(b) in the fourth quarter is
expected to be broadly flat compared to the prior quarter, with production
broadly flat in oil production & operations and lower in gas & low
carbon energy.

•       In the gas & low carbon energy segment, realizations(c),
compared to the prior quarter, are expected to have an impact of $(0.1) to
(0.3) billion, including changes in non-Henry Hub natural gas marker prices.
The gas marketing and trading result is expected to be average.

•       In the oil production & operations segment,
realizations(c), compared to the prior quarter, are expected to have an impact
of $(0.2) to (0.4) billion including the impact of the price lags on bp's
production in the Gulf of America and the UAE.

•       In the customers & products segment, compared to the prior
quarter, results are expected to be influenced by the following factors:

◦       customers - seasonally lower volumes and broadly flat fuels
margins.

◦       products - stronger realized refining margins of around $0.1
billion, offset by a higher impact from turnaround activity and the temporary
impact of reduced capacity following a fire at the Whiting refinery. The oil
trading result is expected to be weak.

•       Other items:

◦       The fourth quarter results are expected to include post-tax
adjusting items relating to impairments, including impairments within our
equity-accounted entities, in the range of $(4) to (5) billion, primarily
related to our transition businesses. These charges are primarily attributable
to the gas and low carbon energy segment and are excluded from underlying
replacement cost profit.

◦       Net debt at the end of the fourth quarter is expected to be in
the range of $22 to 23 billion compared to $26.1 billion at the end of the
third quarter. This includes proceeds received from divestments of around $3.5
billion, bringing the full year amount to around $5.3 billion compared to the
previous guidance of above $4 billion.

Updated FY25 guidance(a)

•       The underlying effective tax rate for the full year is
expected to be around 42% compared to the previous guidance of around 40%
primarily due to changes in the geographical mix of profits.

 

(a       ) All impacts influence bp's underlying RC profit before
interest and tax, unless stated otherwise.

(b       ) Includes bp's share of production of equity-accounted
entities.

(c       ) Realizations are based on sales by consolidated subsidiaries
only - this excludes equity-accounted entities.

( )

Trading conditions

Brent averaged $63.73/bbl in the fourth quarter 2025 compared to $69.13/bbl in
the third quarter 2025.

US gas Henry Hub first of month index averaged $3.55/mmBtu in the fourth
quarter 2025 compared to $3.07/mmBtu in the third quarter 2025.

The bp RIM* averaged $15.2/bbl in the fourth quarter 2025 compared to
$15.8/bbl in the third quarter 2025.

 

Further information on prices and bp's current rules of thumb can be found at
the following link: bp.com Rules of Thumb
(https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/investors/regulatory-news-updates-and-filings/trading-conditions-update.html)

( )

Cautionary Statement

In order to utilize the 'safe harbor' provisions of the United States Private
Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 (the 'PSLRA') and the general
doctrine of cautionary statements, bp is providing the following cautionary
statement: The discussion in this announcement contains certain forecasts,
projections and forward-looking statements - that is, statements related to
future, not past events and circumstances - with respect to the financial
condition, results of operations and businesses of bp and certain of the plans
and objectives of bp with respect to these items. By their nature,
forward-looking statements involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to
events and depend on circumstances that will or may occur in the future and
are outside the control of bp. Actual results or outcomes, may differ
materially from those expressed in such statements, depending on a variety of
factors, including (without limitation): price fluctuations in crude oil and
natural gas; changes in demand for bp's products; currency fluctuations;
drilling and production results; reserves estimates; sales volume and sales
mix numbers; supply and demand imbalances including as a result of direct or
indirect restrictions on production; regional pricing differentials and
refining margins; seasonal impacts on product demand and operating expenses;
resolution of trading and derivative positions for the quarter; the timing and
level of maintenance and/or turnaround activity; the timing and volume of
refinery additions and outages; the timing of bringing new fields onstream;
natural disasters and adverse weather conditions; changes in public
expectations and other changes to business conditions; wars and acts of
terrorism; cyber-attacks or sabotage as well as those factors discussed under
"Risk factors" in bp's Annual Report and Form 20-F 2024 and under "Principal
risks and uncertainties" in bp's Report on Form 6-K for the three months and
six months ended 30 June 2025, each as filed with the US Securities and
Exchange Commission. Furthermore, additional factors may exist that will be
relevant to bp's group results for the fourth quarter of 2025 that are not
currently known or fully understood. Neither bp nor any of its subsidiaries
assumes any obligation to update, revise or supplement any forward-looking
statement contained in this announcement to reflect future circumstances,
events or information.

The contents of websites referred to in this announcement do not form part of
this announcement.

 

 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
 London 14 January 2026
 BP p.l.c. Trading Statement

 

Appendix: Guidance issued in 3Q25 Stock Exchange Announcement(a)

 Guidance Area                              Full Year 2025                                                                   4Q25 vs 3Q25
 Reported and underlying*                   Reported upstream production to be slightly lower and underlying upstream        Reported upstream production to be broadly flat, of which oil production &

                                          production to be broadly flat compared with 2024, of which oil production        operations slightly higher and gas & low carbon energy lower
  upstream production                       & operations higher and gas & low carbon energy lower
 Customers                                  Growth in its business including a full year contribution from bp bioenergy;     •    seasonally lower volumes
                                            earnings growth to be supported by structural cost reduction; fuels margins to

                                            remain sensitive to the cost of supply                                           •    fuels margins to remain sensitive to movements in the cost of supply

 Products                                   Stronger underlying performance underpinned by the absence of the plant-wide     •    similar level of refinery turnaround activity
                                            power outage at Whiting refinery; improvement plans across the portfolio;
                                            similar levels of turnaround activity, with phasing of turnaround activity in
                                            2025 heavily weighted towards 1H25, with the highest impact in 2Q
 OB&C                                       Around $0.5-0.75bn charge
 DD&A                                       Slightly higher compared with 2024
 Underlying effective tax rate*(b)          Around 40%
 Capital expenditure*                       Around $14.5bn
 Divestment and other proceeds              Above $4bn
 Gulf of America oil settlement payments    ~$1.2bn pre-tax, of which $1.1bn 2Q

(a       ) Refer to bp's third quarter and nine months 2025 group
results announcement and bp.com for full text.

(b       ) Underlying effective tax rate is sensitive to a range of
factors, including the volatility of the price environment and its impact on
the geographical mix of the group's profits and losses.

*       See Glossary.

Contacts

                     London                Houston

 Press Office        Rita Brown            Paul Takahashi
                     +44 (0) 7787 685821    +1 713 903 9729

 Investor Relations  Craig Marshall        Graham Collins
 bp.com/investors    +44 (0) 203 401 5592  +1 832 753 5116

Glossary

Capital expenditure is total cash capital expenditure as stated in the
condensed group cash flow statement. Capital expenditure for the operating
segments, gas & low carbon energy businesses and customers & products
businesses is presented on the same basis.

Replacement cost (RC) profit or loss reflects the replacement cost of
inventories sold in the period and is calculated as profit or loss
attributable to bp shareholders, adjusting for inventory holding gains and
losses (net of tax). RC profit or loss for the group is a non-IFRS measure.
The nearest equivalent measure on an IFRS basis is profit or loss attributable
to bp shareholders.

Refining indicator margin (RIM) is a simple indicator of the weighted average
of bp's crude slate and product yield as deemed representative for each
refinery. Actual margins realized by bp may vary due to a variety of factors,
including the actual mix of a crude and product for a given quarter.

Technical service contract (TSC) - Technical service contract is an
arrangement through which an oil and gas company bears the risks and costs of
exploration, development and production. In return, the oil and gas company
receives entitlement to variable physical volumes of hydrocarbons,
representing recovery of the costs incurred and a profit margin which reflects
incremental production added to the oilfield.

Underlying production - 2025 underlying production, when compared with 2024,
is production after adjusting for acquisitions and divestments, curtailments,
and entitlement impacts in our production-sharing agreements/contracts and
technical service contract*.

Underlying RC profit or loss before interest and tax for the operating
segments or customers & products businesses is a non-IFRS measure and is
calculated as RC profit or loss including profit or loss attributable to
non-controlling interests before interest and tax for the operating segments
and excluding net adjusting items for the respective operating segment or
business. The nearest equivalent measure on an IFRS basis for segments and
businesses is RC profit or loss before interest and taxation.

Underlying effective tax rate (ETR) is a non-IFRS measure. The underlying ETR
is calculated by dividing taxation on an underlying replacement cost (RC)
basis by underlying RC profit or loss before tax. Taxation on an underlying RC
basis for the group is calculated as taxation as stated on the group income
statement adjusted for taxation on inventory holding gains and losses and
total taxation on adjusting items. Information on underlying RC profit or loss
is provided below. Taxation on an underlying RC basis presented for the
operating segments is calculated through an allocation of taxation on an
underlying RC basis to each segment. bp believes it is helpful to disclose the
underlying ETR because this measure may help investors to understand and
evaluate, in the same manner as management, the underlying trends in bp's
operational performance on a comparable basis, period on period. Taxation on
an underlying RC basis and underlying ETR are non-IFRS measures. The nearest
equivalent measure on an IFRS basis is the ETR on profit or loss for the
period.

 

BP p.l.c.'s LEI Code 213800LH1BZH3DI6G760

 

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