REG - BP PLC - 3Q25 bp Trading Statement Part 1 of 1

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RNS Number : 1846D  BP PLC  14 October 2025

 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
 London 14 October 2025
 BP p.l.c. Trading Statement

 

Third quarter 2025 trading statement

The following Trading Statement provides a summary of BP p.l.c.'s (bp) current
estimates and expectations for the third quarter of 2025, including data on
the economic environment as well as group performance during the period.

The information presented is not comprehensive of all factors which may impact
bp's group results for the third quarter 2025 and is not an estimate of those
results. Also refer to bp's second quarter 2025 group results announcement on
5 August 2025 for third quarter and full year 2025 guidance items which
continue to apply unless explicitly stated. A summary of that guidance is also
provided in the Appendix to this Trading Statement. All information provided
is subject to the finalization of bp's financial reporting processes and
actual results may vary.

bp's group results for the third quarter 2025 are expected to be published on
4 November 2025.

Updated 3Q25 guidance(a)

•       Reported upstream production(b) in the third quarter is now
expected to be higher compared to the prior quarter, with production higher in
both oil production & operations, primarily higher gas production in bpx
energy, and in gas & low carbon energy.

•       In the gas & low carbon energy segment, realizations(c),
compared to the prior quarter, are expected to have an impact of around $(0.1)
billion, including changes in non-Henry Hub natural gas marker prices. The gas
marketing and trading result is expected to be average.

•       In the oil production & operations segment,
realizations(c), compared to the prior quarter, are expected to be broadly
flat, including the impact of the price lags on bp's production in the Gulf of
America and the UAE. Compared to the prior quarter, exploration write-offs are
expected to be around $(0.1) billion higher.

•       In the customers & products segment, compared to the prior
quarter, results are expected to be influenced by the following factors:

◦       customers - seasonally higher volumes with broadly flat fuels
margins.

◦       products - stronger realized refining margins in the range of
$0.3 to 0.4 billion and a significantly lower level of turnaround activity,
partly offset by seasonal effects of environmental compliance costs and the
impact of unplanned Whiting outage due to exceptional weather conditions. The
oil trading result is expected to be weak.

•       Other items:

◦       The third quarter results are expected to include post-tax
adjusting items relating to asset impairments in the range of $0.2 to $0.5
billion, attributable across the segments. These items are excluded from
underlying replacement cost profit.

◦       Net debt at the end of the third quarter is expected to be
broadly flat compared to the end of the second quarter at around $26 billion
including the impact of the redemption of $1.2 billion perpetual hybrid bonds
on 1 September as planned, higher income taxes paid of around $1 billion and a
working capital release.

 

(a       ) All impacts influence bp's underlying RC profit before
interest and tax, unless stated otherwise.

(b       ) Includes bp's share of production of equity-accounted
entities.

(c       ) Realizations are based on sales by consolidated subsidiaries
only - this excludes equity-accounted entities.

( )

Trading conditions

Brent averaged $69.13/bbl in the third quarter 2025 compared to $67.88/bbl in
the second quarter 2025.

US gas Henry Hub first of month index averaged $3.07/mmBtu in the third
quarter 2025 compared to $3.44/mmBtu in the second quarter 2025.

The bp RIM* averaged $15.8/bbl in the third quarter 2025 compared to $11.9/bbl
in the second quarter 2025.

 

Further information on prices and bp's current rules of thumb can be found at
the following link: bp.com Rules of Thumb
(https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/investors/regulatory-news-updates-and-filings/trading-conditions-update.html)

( )

Cautionary Statement

In order to utilize the 'safe harbor' provisions of the United States Private
Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 (the 'PSLRA') and the general
doctrine of cautionary statements, bp is providing the following cautionary
statement: The discussion in this announcement contains certain forecasts,
projections and forward-looking statements - that is, statements related to
future, not past events and circumstances - with respect to the financial
condition, results of operations and businesses of bp and certain of the plans
and objectives of bp with respect to these items. By their nature,
forward-looking statements involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to
events and depend on circumstances that will or may occur in the future and
are outside the control of bp. Actual results or outcomes, may differ
materially from those expressed in such statements, depending on a variety of
factors, including (without limitation): price fluctuations in crude oil and
natural gas; changes in demand for bp's products; currency fluctuations;
drilling and production results; reserves estimates; sales volume and sales
mix numbers; supply and demand imbalances including as a result of direct or
indirect restrictions on production; regional pricing differentials and
refining margins; seasonal impacts on product demand and operating expenses;
resolution of trading and derivative positions for the quarter; the timing and
level of maintenance and/or turnaround activity; the timing and volume of
refinery additions and outages; the timing of bringing new fields onstream;
natural disasters and adverse weather conditions; changes in public
expectations and other changes to business conditions; wars and acts of
terrorism; cyber-attacks or sabotage as well as those factors discussed under
"Risk factors" in bp's Annual Report and Form 20-F 2024 and under "Principal
risks and uncertainties" in bp's Report on Form 6-K for the three months and
six months ended 30 June 2025, each as filed with the US Securities and
Exchange Commission. Furthermore, additional factors may exist that will be
relevant to bp's group results for the third quarter of 2025 that are not
currently known or fully understood. Neither bp nor any of its subsidiaries
assumes any obligation to update, revise or supplement any forward-looking
statement contained in this announcement to reflect future circumstances,
events or information.

The contents of websites referred to in this announcement do not form part of
this announcement.

 

 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
 London 14 October 2025
 BP p.l.c. Trading Statement

 

Appendix: Guidance issued in 2Q25 Stock Exchange Announcement(a)

 Guidance Area                              Full Year 2025                                                                   3Q25 vs 2Q25
 Reported and underlying*                   Reported upstream production to be lower and underlying upstream production to   Reported upstream production to be slightly lower

                                          be slightly lower than 2024, of which oil production & operations broadly
  upstream production                       flat and gas & low carbon energy lower
 Customers                                  Growth in its business including a full year contribution from bp bioenergy;     •    seasonally higher volumes
                                            earnings growth to be supported by structural cost reduction; fuels margins to

                                            remain sensitive to the cost of supply                                           •    fuels margins to remain sensitive to movements in the cost of supply

 Products                                   Stronger underlying performance underpinned by the absence of the plant-wide     •    a significantly lower level of planned refinery turnaround activity
                                            power outage at Whiting refinery; improvement plans across the portfolio;        partly offset by seasonal effects of environmental compliance costs
                                            similar levels of turnaround activity, with phasing of turnaround activity in
                                            2025 heavily weighted towards 1H25, with the highest impact in 2Q
 Income taxes paid                                                                                                           •    expected to be around $1bn higher mainly due to the timing of
                                                                                                                             installment payments, which are typically higher in the third quarter each
                                                                                                                             year
 Perpetual hybrid bonds                                                                                                      •    elected to redeem $1.2bn, representing the remaining amount callable
                                                                                                                             from June 2025. The hybrid bonds will be redeemed on 1 September 2025 using
                                                                                                                             proceeds from bp's November 2024 hybrid bond issuance
 OB&C                                       Around $0.5-1.0bn charge
 DD&A                                       Slightly higher compared with 2024
 Underlying effective tax rate*(b)          Around 40%
 Capital expenditure*                       Around $14.5bn
 Divestment and other proceeds              Around $3-4bn with the remaining proceeds weighted to 4Q25
 Gulf of America oil settlement payments    ~$1.2bn pre-tax, of which $1.1bn 2Q

(a       ) Refer to bp's second quarter and half year 2025 group
results announcement and bp.com for full text.

(b       ) Underlying effective tax rate is sensitive to a range of
factors, including the volatility of the price environment and its impact on
the geographical mix of the group's profits and losses.

*     See Glossary.

Contacts

                     London                Houston

 Press Office        Rita Brown            Paul Takahashi
                     +44 (0) 7787 685821    +1 713 903 9729

 Investor Relations  Craig Marshall        Graham Collins
 bp.com/investors    +44 (0) 203 401 5592  +1 832 753 5116

Glossary

Capital expenditure is total cash capital expenditure as stated in the
condensed group cash flow statement. Capital expenditure for the operating
segments, gas & low carbon energy businesses and customers & products
businesses is presented on the same basis.

Replacement cost (RC) profit or loss reflects the replacement cost of
inventories sold in the period and is calculated as profit or loss
attributable to bp shareholders, adjusting for inventory holding gains and
losses (net of tax). RC profit or loss for the group is a non-IFRS measure.
The nearest equivalent measure on an IFRS basis is profit or loss attributable
to bp shareholders.

Refining indicator margin (RIM) is a simple indicator of the weighted average
of bp's crude slate and product yield as deemed representative for each
refinery. Actual margins realized by bp may vary due to a variety of factors,
including the actual mix of a crude and product for a given quarter.

Technical service contract (TSC) - Technical service contract is an
arrangement through which an oil and gas company bears the risks and costs of
exploration, development and production. In return, the oil and gas company
receives entitlement to variable physical volumes of hydrocarbons,
representing recovery of the costs incurred and a profit margin which reflects
incremental production added to the oilfield.

Underlying production - 2025 underlying production, when compared with 2024,
is production after adjusting for acquisitions and divestments, curtailments,
and entitlement impacts in our production-sharing agreements/contracts and
technical service contract*.

Underlying RC profit or loss before interest and tax for the operating
segments or customers & products businesses is a non-IFRS measure and is
calculated as RC profit or loss including profit or loss attributable to
non-controlling interests before interest and tax for the operating segments
and excluding net adjusting items for the respective operating segment or
business. The nearest equivalent measure on an IFRS basis for segments and
businesses is RC profit or loss before interest and taxation.

Underlying effective tax rate (ETR) is a non-IFRS measure. The underlying ETR
is calculated by dividing taxation on an underlying replacement cost (RC)
basis by underlying RC profit or loss before tax. Taxation on an underlying RC
basis for the group is calculated as taxation as stated on the group income
statement adjusted for taxation on inventory holding gains and losses and
total taxation on adjusting items. Information on underlying RC profit or loss
is provided below. Taxation on an underlying RC basis presented for the
operating segments is calculated through an allocation of taxation on an
underlying RC basis to each segment. bp believes it is helpful to disclose the
underlying ETR because this measure may help investors to understand and
evaluate, in the same manner as management, the underlying trends in bp's
operational performance on a comparable basis, period on period. Taxation on
an underlying RC basis and underlying ETR are non-IFRS measures. The nearest
equivalent measure on an IFRS basis is the ETR on profit or loss for the
period.

 

BP p.l.c.'s LEI Code 213800LH1BZH3D16G760

 

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