Barclays sees steady Q3 for Spanish banks, all eyes on BBVA payout

CaixaBank SA

21/10/2025 06:51

** Barclays expects seasonally steady third-quarter results for Spanish banks, but says investor will be focused on a possible large extraordinary shareholder payout by BBVA BBVA.MC after its failed bid for rival Sabadell 

** For BBVA, the broker estimates roughly 3.5 billion euros of excess capital above its de-facto 12.5% distribution level and expects a "meaningful" new buyback to be announced alongside Q3 results, in addition to the pending 1 billion euro programme

** BBVA becomes the broker's preferred bank in Spain, as Barclays sees scope for extraordinary shareholder distributions, underpinned by capital strength, Mexico resilience, and a "constructive" backdrop of United States-Mexico-Canada-Agreement (USMCA)

** As for Sabadell, Barclays believes M&A defence leaves the bank's franchise stronger, with investors attracted by the high yield post-TSB sale and focus now shifting to executing its 2024–27 plan

** For the third-quarter results, the broker sees Sabadell facing higher quarterly provisions and muted revenues; Unicaja UNI.MC to see weaker commercial momentum impacted by seasonality; and BBVA and Santander SAN.MC mild FX and LatAm rate headwinds

** Barclays also raises Bankinter BKT.MC to "equal weight" from "underweight", as it expects the bank's solid fundamentals to persist in a stable-rate backdrop

(Reporting by Joao Manuel Mauricio)

((JoaoManuel.VicenteMauricio@thomsonreuters.com))