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CEE MARKETS-Czech crown holds strong at nearly 3-year high as FX drift, Hungary rates watched

CEE MARKETS-Czech crown holds strong at nearly 3-year high as FX drift, Hungary rates watched

- The Czech crown touched its strongest levels since September 2023 on Tuesday on the back of a weaker dollar and bets of an interest rate hike later this year, while the Hungarian forint steadied before a likely rate cut.

  • In Hungary, the forint has mostly weakened and underperformed central European peers since it hit its own multi-year high in June following a rally after the election of Prime Minister Peter Magyar's pro-EU party, which ended the 16-year rule of Viktor Orban.

  • The forint EURHUF= was less than 0.1% down at 363.10 to the euro at 0821 GMT, with Hungary's central bank expected to deliver a third straight interest rate cut at a meeting on Tuesday with inflation low.

  • The Czech central bank has taken a more hawkish stance even with low inflation as it sees persistent price pressures coming from the services sector and wage growth. In June, it lifted interest rates and markets are pricing chances of another hike in the coming months.

  • The crown EURCZK= was steady at 24.102 in mid-morning trade after earlier touching a high of 24.090.

  • Central Europe's currencies have found support from the weakening U.S. dollar - due to Treasury market worries over debt and conflict in the Middle East - in recent sessions as it boosts trading in emerging markets.

  • "The Czech crown has benefited from the weaker dollar thanks to which it is anchored around 24.100 per euro," Czech bank CSOB said.

  • "The U.S. bond market remains nervous, and if the dollar were to weaken further, the crown could look at stronger levels in the range of the 24.00 EUR/CZK level."

  • Poland's zloty EURPLN= was little changed at 4.307 to the euro on Tuesday and has sought stronger levels since falling to a 2026 low of 4.35 in July.

  • Bank Millennium in a trade note said from a technical standpoint, an unsuccessful attempt to reach the 4.30 level could cause a pullback to weaker levels.

  • On equity markets, shares in Poland's CD Projekt RED CDR.WA dropped over 7%, on track for their worst day in three months, after a late Monday announcement that the game developer was planning to release "The Witcher 4" in 2028 triggered some disappointment.


CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT 1021 CET

CURRENCIES

Latest trade

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2026

Czech crown

EURCZK=

24.1020

24.1020

+0.00%

+0.27%

Hungary forint

EURHUF=

363.1000

362.8500

-0.07%

+5.86%

Polish zloty

EURPLN=

4.3070

4.3065

-0.01%

-2.12%

Romanian leu

EURRON=

5.2525

5.2520

-0.01%

-3.02%

Serbian dinar

EURRSD=

117.2600

117.3000

+0.03%

+0.03%

Note: daily change calculated from 1800 CET

STOCKS

Latest

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2026

Prague

.PX

2795.41

2794.4300

+0.04%

+4.09%

Budapest

.BUX

152241.59

151360.28

+0.58%

+37.12%

Warsaw

.WIG20

4006.85

4000.72

+0.15%

+25.84%

Bucharest

.BETI

36412.55

36475.44

-0.17%

+48.99%

BONDS

Yield (bid)

Yield change

Spread vs Bund

Daily change in spread

Czech Rep 2-year

CZ2YT=RR

4.0105

0.0301

+115bps

+2bps

Czech Rep 5-year

CZ5YT=RR

4.3891

-0.0010

+142bps

-1bps

Czech Rep 10-year

CZ10YT=RR

4.9557

-0.0196

+170bps

-3bps







Poland 2-year

PL2YT=RR

4.3770

-0.2150

+151bps

-23bps

Poland 5-year

PL5YT=RR

5.3410

-0.0730

+237bps

-9bps

Poland 10-year

PL10YT=RR

5.9330

-0.0100

+267bps

-2bps

FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS

3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank

Czech Rep

CZKFRA, PRIBOR=

4.14

4.40

4.56

3.85

Poland

PLNFRA, WIBOR=

3.88

4.08

4.17

3.83

Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices






(Reporting by Jason Hovet in Prague and Karol Badohal in Warsaw; Editing by Devika Syamnath)

((breaking-news-cee@thomsonreuters.com))

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