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Potential Tropical Cyclone One forms off Texas coast, threatening dangerous flash flooding (updated)

(Adds details throughout on offshore operations and refinery
preparations, adds latest weather advisory)
    * System could become Tropical Storm Arthur early Wednesday,
National Hurricane Center says
    * Forecasters expect 12 inches of rain through Thursday
    * Tropical storm warning issued from western Louisiana
coastline

    By Sheila Dang and Ashitha Shivaprasad
    HOUSTON, June 16 (Reuters) - A tropical storm was expected
to form off the Texas coast by Wednesday morning from a system
labeled Potential Tropical Cyclone One, the U.S. National
Hurricane Center said on Tuesday, warning of heavy rainfall and
dangerous flash flooding along the energy corridor that includes
major offshore drilling and onshore refineries.
    Those refineries have so far taken only preliminary
precautions of securing plants' loose items that could be thrown
around by high winds expected when the storm comes onshore near
the Texas-Louisiana border as early as Wednesday.
    Shell Plc  SHEL.L  said there had been no impact on the
offshore production platforms from the forming storm. BP  BP.L 
said it was monitoring the storm's progress.
    Much of the U.S.-regulated production in the northern Gulf
of Mexico is south and east of the forecast path of the weak
storm system.  
    The potential tropical cyclone — about 65 miles (105 km)
southwest of Corpus Christi, Texas — would take the name Arthur
if it strengthens and becomes the first named storm of the 2026
Atlantic hurricane season. 
    It is currently producing maximum sustained winds of 30
miles per hour (45 km/h). A tropical storm watch has been issued
for the northwestern Gulf Coast from Sargent, Texas, to the
Texas-Louisiana border.
    A Tropical Storm Warning was issued on Tuesday from Sabine
Pass on the border of the two states to Morgan City, Louisiana.
    The storm is not expected to become a hurricane, according
to forecast models.
"The disturbance should move offshore the Texas coast tonight or
early Wednesday, move roughly parallel to the upper Texas coast
later on Wednesday and move back inland in extreme eastern Texas
or southwestern Louisiana late Wednesday or early Thursday," the
NHC said.
    Regardless of further strengthening, the storm system is
expected to bring 4 to 8 inches of rainfall — with isolated
higher totals around 12 inches (30.5 cm) — through Thursday
along the Texas coast through much of Louisiana and beyond. A
dangerous storm surge could flood normally dry areas, the NHC
added.
    Texas Governor Greg Abbott on Monday issued a disaster
declaration for 101 counties in the state.
     
    ENERGY SECTOR MONITORS STORM IMPACT
The heavy rains could dampen the fun around the FIFA World Cup
match between Portugal and DR Congo set to be played in Houston
on Wednesday, while also raising concerns about any potential
impact to energy assets spread across the broader region. Tony
Dupont, COO at Earth Science Associates, said that the storm, so
far, "doesn’t look too strong."
    Andrew Polk, a weather risk manager at data consultancy DTN,
said major oil production locations in the Gulf were currently
outside of the track of forecasted tropical storm force winds.
    "There may still be some disruptions, primarily due to the
overall impact of helicopter operations which may disrupt and
delay crew changes from occurring due to the winds and
thunderstorms associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One,"
he said in an emailed response to questions, adding that wave
heights are forecast to increase to between 7 and 9 feet to the
east and south of the storm.
    "The wave impacts primarily disrupt operations in the water
with lift boats and/or diving operations," he continued, adding
that the primary focus of the system will be total rainfall
amounts expected along the Texas and Louisiana coast. 
    The U.S. Gulf of America federal offshore region produced
nearly 2 million barrels of crude oil per day in March,
accounting for roughly 14% of total U.S. crude output. Shell,
BP, Chevron  CVX.N  and Occidental Petroleum  OXY.N  are among
the largest deepwater operators.
    The Gulf Coast refining region that runs from Corpus Christi
to Pascagoula, Mississippi, holds around half of total U.S.
refining capacity of 18.4 million barrels per day (bpd). 
    The largest U.S. refinery is the Saudi Aramco-owned Motiva
Enterprises' Port Arthur, Texas, plant, which has a crude oil
throughput of 640,500 barrels per day. Other major Gulf Coast
refineries include Marathon Petroleum's  MPC.N  Galveston Bay
plant and ExxonMobil's  XOM.N  refineries in Beaumont and
Baytown, Texas, and Baton Rouge, Louisiana.
    LNG giants including Cheniere  LNG.N  and Venture Global
 VG.N  also have major liquefaction facilities along the coastal
region.

(Reporting by Ashitha Shivaprasad in Bengaluru and Sheila Dang
in Houston; Additional Reporting by Erwin Seba in Houston;
Writing by Nathan Crooks; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama, Aurora
Ellis and Matthew Lewis)
((mailto:erwin.seba@thomsonreuters.com; +1 832 746 4269; Reuters
Messaging: rm://erwin.seba.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))

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