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Tropical Storm Arthur forms near Texas coast, life-threatening flooding expected (updated)

(Updates with latest NHC advisory, Earth Science data model in
paragraphs 2-5; Cheniere comment in paragraph 8)
    * Arthur could bring five to 10 inches of rain, with
isolated totals near 20 inches
    * Earth Science Associates forecast around 20,000 barrels of
offshore oil output could be lost
    * Tropical storm warning covers refinery and LNG hub from
Texas into Louisiana
    * NHC said the system may weaken by Wednesday night or early
Thursday
    * AccuWeather sees flooding risk extending northeast into
the Carolinas

    By Anjana Anil, Ashitha Shivaprasad and Sheila Dang
    HOUSTON, June 17 (Reuters) - Tropical Storm Arthur formed
near the Texas coast and is expected to bring life-threatening
flooding across portions of the Southeastern U.S., the U.S.
National Hurricane Center said on Wednesday. 
    The storm — the first named system of the 2026 Atlantic
hurricane season — was located about 20 miles (35 km)
north-northwest of Matagorda, Texas, on Wednesday afternoon,
producing maximum sustained winds of 45 miles per hour (75
km/h). 
A tropical storm warning is in effect from Sargent, Texas, to
Morgan City, Louisiana, an important energy corridor that
includes major refineries and liquefied natural gas processing
facilities around Port Arthur and Lake Charles. The storm could
dissipate by Wednesday night or early Thursday, the NHC said. 
    A model from consulting firm Earth Science Associates based
on past storms is forecasting that around 20,000 barrels of oil
could be lost because of shut-ins at offshore platforms in the
storm's path.  
    "Part of the past losses occur due to an abundance of
caution for personnel and other dangers, and that is part of the
data in the model, though for the current storm we haven’t seen
those actions, so it is likely to be on the low side of the
forecast," Earth Science Associates Chief Operating Officer Tony
Dupont said in an emailed response to questions. 
     
    REFINING HUB IN POTENTIAL PATH
    The Gulf Coast refining region that runs from Corpus Christi
to Pascagoula, Mississippi, holds around half of U.S. refining
capacity of 18.4 million barrels per day. The largest U.S.
refinery is ⁠the Saudi Aramco-owned ​Motiva Enterprises' Port
Arthur, Texas, plant, which has throughput of 730,000 bpd,
according to the company.
​Other major Gulf Coast refineries in the potential path of the
storm include Exxon Mobil's  XOM.N  facility in Beaumont, Texas.
LNG companies, including Cheniere  LNG.N  and Venture Global
 VG.N , also have major liquefaction facilities along the
coastal ​region.
    Motiva Enterprises and Venture Global did not immediately
respond to requests for comment about storm preparations.
Cheniere and Exxon said they were monitoring conditions that
have so far had no impact on operations.  
Arthur is expected to produce five to 10 inches (127 to 254 mm)
of rainfall. Isolated higher totals near 20 inches are expected
through early Friday from the mid and upper Texas coast
east-northeast into southern and central portions of Louisiana,
Mississippi, and Alabama, along with western portions of Georgia
and the Florida Panhandle, the Miami-based NHC said.
    “Very heavy rainfall is expected to fall across southeast
Louisiana into southern Mississippi, where there can be
significant and even life-threatening flooding, before spreading
northeastward through the Carolinas and Georgia,” said
AccuWeather hurricane expert Alex DaSilva.
    Significant rain is expected to last through Friday across
the Southeast, and the zone of greatest risk will shift from far
eastern Texas and Louisiana to Georgia by Friday, according to
AccuWeather.

(Reporting by Anjana Anil and Ashitha Shivaprasad in Bengaluru;
Additional reporting by Curtis Williams; Editing by Mark Porter,
Nathan Crooks, Aurora Ellis, Rod Nickel)
((mailto:Ashitha.Shivaprasad@thomsonreuters.com;))

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