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US natgas prices climb to 7-week high on rising demand forecasts (updated)

UPDATE 1-US natgas prices climb to 7-week high on rising demand forecasts

Over 68,000 customers still without power in Texas after Edouard hits Gulf Coast

Storage surplus likely narrowed to 5.3% above five-year norm

Hot weather through Sept. 17 to keep generators burning more fuel for air conditioning

European and Asian gas benchmarks hovered near 44-month highs around $25 and $24

Adds latest prices

By Scott DiSavino

- U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 2% on Wednesday to a seven-week high as demand forecasts were lifted, with unseasonably warm temperatures expected through at least mid-September.

Front-month gas futures for October delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 5.2 cents, or 1.8%, to settle at $2.956 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), the highest close since July 9.

Limiting gains was a slight reduction in gas flows to some LNG plants along the Gulf Coast, including Cheniere Energy's LNG.N Sabine Pass in Louisiana, after Tropical Storm Edouard crossed over the area on Tuesday. Edouard is now a tropical depression dropping lots of rain north of Houston.

Tropical storms can reduce gas demand by cooling the weather and cutting air conditioning use, knocking out power to homes and businesses and disrupting operations at LNG export plants and other industrial facilities.

There are currently about 68,300 homes and businesses without power in Texas, according to power outage tracking firm PowerOutage.us.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 112.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in September, up from a monthly high of 111.5 bcfd in August.

Record output and mild spring weather this year allowed energy firms to keep the amount of gas in inventory higher than the five-year (2021-2025) average since March.

But with hot weather last week, analysts said the amount of gas in storage likely eased to 5.3% above normal during the week ended August 28 from 5.5% above normal the previous week, according to estimates ahead of the weekly federal inventory report on Thursday. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Gas inventories have remained in surplus despite weeks of above-normal temperatures this summer.

Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly warmer than normal through September 17, pushing power generators to continue burning more gas than usual to keep air conditioners running. About 40% of U.S. power generation comes from gas-fired plants.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would slide from 112.5 bcfd this week to 109.4 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday.

LNG EXPORTS

Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 18.0 bcfd so far in September from 17.2 bcfd in August. That is still short of the monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April.

On a daily basis, LNG feedgas slid from 18.3 bcfd on Tuesday to a one-week low of 17.6 bcfd on Wednesday, likely due to reductions at several plants in Texas and Louisiana as Tropical Storm Edouard crossed over the region.

The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG exporter in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more low-cost U.S. gas.

Around the world, gas was trading near 44-month highs of around $25 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe and $24 at the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 benchmark in Asia. NG/EU

Week ended Aug 28 Forecast

Week ended Aug 21 Actual

Year ago Aug 28

Five-year average (2021-2025) Aug 28

U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):

+31

+15

+50

+37

U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):

3,215

3,184

3,264

3,054

U.S. total storage versus 5-year average

+5.3%

+5.5%

Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2025

Five-Year Average (2021-2025)

Henry Hub NGc1

2.94

2.90

3.01

3.62

3.79

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1

24.94

24.69

11.13

11.94

18.51

Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1

23.62

22.71

11.32

12.24

18.12

LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days

Total Two-Week Forecast

Current Day

Prior Day

Prior Year

10-Year Norm

30-Year Norm

U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)

10

14

17

14

21

U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)

189

181

130

157

134

U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)

199

195

147

171

156

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week

Current Week

Next Week

This Week Last Year

Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production

111.1

112.8

113.2

107.7

101.5

U.S. Imports from Canada

6.6

7.4

7.2

N/A

7.7

U.S. LNG Imports

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Total U.S. Supply

117.8

120.2

120.4

N/A

109.2

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

U.S. Exports to Canada

2.6

2.3

2.1

N/A

2.3

U.S. Exports to Mexico

7.8

7.7

7.8

N/A

6.8

U.S. LNG Export Feedgas

17.0

18.2

17.5

15.8

12.6

U.S. Commercial

4.6

4.7

4.8

4.6

5.0

U.S. Residential

3.5

3.6

3.6

3.7

3.9

U.S. Power Plant

47.5

46.2

43.8

40.3

38.4

U.S. Industrial

21.8

21.9

21.8

22.0

22.1

U.S. Plant Fuel

5.5

5.6

5.6

5.5

5.3

U.S. Pipe Distribution

2.3

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.9

U.S. Vehicle Fuel

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

Total U.S. Consumption

85.3

84.3

82.0

78.5

77.8

Total U.S. Demand

112.8

112.5

109.4

N/A

99.5

N/A = Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30)

2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast

2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast

2025 % of Normal Actual

2024

% of Normal Actual

2023

% of Normal Actual

Apr-Sep

83

83

76

74

83

Jan-Jul

90

90

78

76

77

Oct-Sep

93

93

80

77

76

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA

Week ended Sep 4

Week ended Aug 28

2025

2024

2023

Wind

10

7

11

11

10

Solar

8

8

6

5

4

Hydro

4

4

6

6

6

Other

1

1

1

1

2

Petroleum

0

0

0

0

0

Natural Gas

42

45

40

42

41

Coal

17

17

18

16

17

Nuclear

17

17

18

19

19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2025

Five-Year Average (2021-2025)

Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL

2.90

2.90

2.97

3.52

3.72

Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL

1.98

2.00

1.85

3.53

3.56

PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL

3.34

3.37

3.74

3.42

5.47

Eastern Gas (formerly Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL

1.90

1.82

1.75

2.79

2.96

Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL

2.71

2.66

2.81

3.23

3.60

Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL

1.90

2.20

2.18

6.08

5.04

SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL

3.30

3.30

3.11

3.60

5.71

Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL

2.08

2.02

-0.06

1.03

2.88

AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL

0.84

0.83

0.22

1.13

2.13

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2025

Five-Year Average (2021-2025)

New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX

46.75

56.04

38.84

77.12

61.67

PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX

119.29

140.24

51.24

60.23

54.47

Mid-Columbia (Mid C) W-MIDCP-IDX

32.77

35.48

56.16

44.81

68.96

Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX

32.54

43.25

38.04

34.82

59.94

South Path-15 (SP-15) W-SP15-IDX

27.67

30.55

36.05

28.44

53.02


(Reporting by Scott DiSavino, Editing by Nick Zieminski and David Gregorio)

((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))

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