Factbox: Gold prices to remain up, reaching $3,000/oz in near-term, says Citi
06/02/2025 21:14
(Adds Citi's latest forecast, updates the table)
Feb 6(Reuters) - Leading global banks anticipate that
gold prices will remain elevated throughout 2025, potentially
reaching the $3,000 mark, as geopolitical uncertainties continue
to shape investor sentiment.
Among the key drivers of this rally are U.S. President
Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policies, including fresh
tariffs on major partners like Canada, Mexico, and China, which
have triggered retaliatory measures from these nations.
Citi responded to these developments by revising its
near-term (0-3 months) price target for gold up to $3,000 per
ounce from $2,800, while maintaining its 6-12 month forecast at
$3,000, unchanged from the previous forecast. The bank also
upgraded its 2025 average price outlook from $2,800 to $2,900
per ounce.
"The gold bull market looks set to continue under Trump 2.0
with trade wars and geopolitical tensions reinforcing the
reserve diversification/de-dollarization trend and supporting EM
official sector gold demand, and with global growth concerns
(tariff and cycle related) set to raise ETF and OTC investment
demand," Citi stated in a note.
"We expect gold to continue to rise as a hedge against
growth and other risks, including actual and perceived rising
growth risks, including trade wars, still-high interest rates
weighing on growth, continued deterioration in the U.S. labor
market, ex-U.S. currency devaluation risks, and potential U.S.
equity drawdown risks," the bank noted.
Meanwhile data from the World Gold Council showed global
gold demand rose 1% to a record 4,974.5 metric tons in 2024,
driven by higher investment and increased central bank purchases
in the fourth quarter.
"While growth should remain robust over the first half of
2025, the outlook beyond that will to a large degree depend on
the timing and magnitude of fiscal, trade and immigration
policies in the U.S., and the degree of tariff retaliation,"
Macquarie said in a December 5 note.
Gold XAU= continued its upward momentum, reaching a new
all-time high of $2,882.16 on Wednesday. The five-session
winning streak was driven by rising trade tensions between major
economies, increasing concerns about economic growth, and
uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path.
GOL/
The following is a list of the latest brokerage forecasts
for 2025 and 2026 prices for gold (in $ per ounce):
Brokerage/Agen Annual Price Price Targets
cy Forecasts
2025 2026
HSBC 2,687 2,615 2,620 by end-2025
Deutsche Bank 2,725 2,900
ANZ * $2,763 $2,795 $2,900 by end-2025
Macquarie $2,650 $2,350 -
Goldman Sachs - - $3,000 by Q2-2026
UBS - - $3,000 by end-2025
BofA $2,750 $2,625 -
JP Morgan $2,863 $3,019 -
Morgan Stanley $2,763 $2,450 -
Citi Research $2,900 $2,800 0-3 month forecast at
$3,000/oz and 6-12
month forecast is
$3,000/oz
*end-of-period forecasts
(Reporting by Sherin Elizabeth Varghese and Sarah S. Qureshi in
Bengaluru
Editing by Marguerita Choy)
((sherinelizabeth.varghese@thomsonreuters.com;))