Citi sees 0-3 month point price target of $4,500/oz for gold (updated)

Citigroup

04/11/2026 15:09

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Nov 4 (Reuters) - Citi has a 0-3 month point price target of $4,500 per ounce for gold, it said on Wednesday, as it sees substantial upside potential if the Strait of Hormuz reopens and the Yemen/Saudi conflict de-escalates by year-end as it expects.
The bank also sees has a 6-12 month price target for gold of $5,000 per ounce
Citi also said that if oil prices fall sharply, the Federal Reserve may start cutting rates, making gold more attractive to investors and helping fuel a new global gold rally
However, the bank cut its full 2026 and 2027 average gold price forecasts to $4,460/oz and $4,700/oz respectively from $4,560/oz and $5,000/oz previously
In its bear-case scenario, to which Citi assigns a 30% probability, gold could fall to $3,500/oz if Middle East disruptions keep energy prices elevated, inflation remains persistent and the Federal Reserve maintains a tightening bias
Citi estimates global annualised spending on gold fell to about $820 billion in the third quarter from roughly $1.15 trillion in the first quarter, as bar and coin demand weakened, although ETF inflows and central bank buying remained robust
In its bull case scenario, to which it assigned a 10% probability, Citi assumes a rapid U.S.-Iran deal pushes oil prices sharply lower, causing the Fed to cut rates, the dollar to weaken, and investors to pile into gold, driving a major rally in both physical and financial gold markets.
Gold prices climbed 3% on Wednesday as the dollar slid, lifting demand for bullion, after Democrats swept the US midterm elections, while investors awaited this week's US payrolls data for fresh signals on the Federal Reserve's rate outlook GOL/
Spot gold prices XAU= were at around $4,038.50 per ounce at 9:30 a.m. ET.

(Reporting by Vishak Mathew, Pablo Sinha and Anushree Mukherjee in Bengaluru; Editing by Jan Harvey and Chizu Nomiyama )
((Pablo.Sinha@thomsonreuters.com;))