REG - Coca-Cola EP PLC - Q1 2022 Trading Update
27/04/2022 07:00
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RNS Number : 4401J Coca-Cola Europacific Partners plc 27 April 2022
27 April 2022
COCA-COLA EUROPACIFIC PARTNERS
Trading Update for the First-Quarter ended 1 April 2022 & Interim Dividend
Declaration
Strong start to the year, reaffirming FY22 profit guidance despite
accelerating inflationary pressures
Q1 2022 Change vs 2021 Change vs 2021 (Pro forma)
Revenue Volume Revenue per UC( 1 ) Comparable( 2 ) Volume Revenue per UC( 1 , 5 ) FXN( 2 ) revenue Revenue Pro forma Pro forma revenue per UC( 1 , 3 ) Pro forma FXN Pro forma revenue( 3 )
(UC)( 1 )
comparable revenue( 3 )
volume( 3 )
Europe €2,805m 562m €4.94 16.5% 5.0% 21.0% 22.5% 16.5% 5.0% 21.0% 22.5%
API €904m 178m €4.96 13.5% (0.5)% 11.0% 13.5%
CCEP €3,709m 740m €4.95 53.5% 5.5% 59.5% 62.0% 16.0% 3.5% 18.5% 20.0%
Damian Gammell, Chief Executive Officer, said:
"We have had a fantastic start to the year, delivering strong top-line growth
and value share gains( 4 ). A huge thank you to all our colleagues. Our
thoughts are also with those affected by the conflict and suffering in
Ukraine. We join others across the world in calling for a return to peace.
"Together with The Coca-Cola Company and our other brand partners, our
relentless focus on our core brands, solid in-market execution and driving
price and mix delivered both volume and revenue ahead of 2019. Volume improved
strongly as consumers enjoyed the continued reopening of the away from home
channel, with resilient demand in the home channel and a record start to our
biggest ever activation in Indonesia during Ramadan.
"We remain well placed over 2022 and beyond. Our aim is to be smart and
sustainable - through our people centric, data driven and digitally enabled
approach. Disciplined investment in these areas, as well as in our portfolio,
will support our long-term growth ambitions. And all done sustainably. We are
pleased to again be recognised amongst the Financial Times-Statista list of
Europe's Climate Leaders as we continue to make progress on our ambition to
reach net zero emissions by 2040.
"In the near-term, whilst we expect to see further volume and mix recovery, we
are mindful of a more uncertain outlook given accelerating inflationary
pressures. So, we continue to manage our key levers of pricing, promotional
spend and efficiencies across our business. Focused on driving operating
profit and cash, we are reaffirming our comparable operating profit growth of
6 to 9%, and guiding to delivering strong free cash flow of at least €1.5
billion in FY22. These commitments, combined with today's interim dividend
declaration demonstrate the strength and resilience of our business, as well
as our ability to deliver continued shareholder value."
Note: All footnotes included after the 'About CCEP' section
Q1 HIGHLIGHTS( 2 , 3 )
Revenue
Q1 Reported +62.0%; Q1 Pro forma +18.5%( 5 )
• Reported growth, in addition to the drivers below, reflects
the acquisition of Coca-Cola Amatil (completed 10 May 2021)
• NARTD YTD value share gains( 4 ) across measured channels both
in store (+10bps) & online (+20bps)
• Pro forma comparable volume +16.0%( 6 ) (+3.5% vs 2019) driven
by the reopening of the away from home (AFH) channel in Europe, solid trading
in API, a great start to Ramadan in Indonesia & soft comparables (Q1 2021
volume -8.5% vs 2020)
◦ Strong AFH pro forma comparable volume: +40.0%( 6 ) (-1.5% vs
2019) reflecting the reopening of HoReCa( 7 ) across Europe (+56.0% vs 2021)
& recovery of immediate consumption (IC) packs (+52.0% vs 2021)
◦ Resilient Home pro forma comparable volume: +4.0%( 6 ) (+7.0% vs
2019) driven by solid in-market execution
• Recent trading reflects the continued recovery of the AFH
channel across our markets & our biggest ever Ramadan activation
• Pro forma revenue per unit case +3.5%( 1 , 5 ) (+4.5%( 8 ) vs
2019) reflecting positive pack & channel mix led by the recovery of AFH,
alongside favourable price across all markets
Dividend
• Declaring first-half interim dividend per share of €0.56,
calculated as 40% of the FY21 dividend, with the second-half interim dividend
to be paid with reference to the current year annualised total dividend payout
ratio of approximately 50%
Other
• API integration well advanced; previously announced plans to
enable greater focus on NARTD, RTD alcohol & Spirits remain on track,
including the sale of NARTD own brands to The Coca-Cola Company. The exit of
Australia beer & apple cider products will conclude by the end of the
first half, however CCEP will retain ownership of the standalone Feral craft
brewery
• Innovation highlights: new What the Fanta Pink & Monster
flavour extensions (including Monster Ultra Watermelon & Gold)
• Sustainability highlights:
◦ recognised, for the second time, in the Financial
Times-Statista list of Europe's Climate Leaders
◦ third manufacturing site certified carbon neutral (Belgium)
◦ switched to using bio-fuel across our entire third party
logistics fleet in the Netherlands
FY22 GUIDANCE( 2 , 3 )
The outlook for FY22 reflects current market conditions. Guidance is on a pro
forma comparable & Fx-neutral basis.
Revenue: pro forma comparable growth of 8-10% (previously 6-8%)
• Weighted towards volume growth over price/mix reflecting
continued recovery of the AFH channel
Cost of sales per unit case: pro forma comparable growth of ~7% (previously
~5%)
• Stronger volume recovery supporting favourable overhead
absorption
• Commodity inflation expected to be in the high-teen range
(previously high single-digit)
• FY22 hedge coverage at ~71%
Operating profit: pro forma comparable growth of 6-9% (unchanged)
• Remain on track to deliver our previously announced efficiency
savings & API combination benefits & continued focus on optimising our
discretionary spend
Comparable effective tax rate: c.22-23% (unchanged)
Dividend payout ratio: c.50%( 9 )
( )
Free cash flow: at least €1.5bn (new)
First-Quarter Revenue Performance by Geography( 2 )
All values are unaudited and all references to volumes are on a comparable
basis
Q1
Fx-neutral
€ million % change % change
Great Britain 658 32.0 % 26.5 %
France( 11 ) 463 12.5 % 12.5 %
Germany 560 20.0 % 20.0 %
Iberia( 12 ) 543 29.5 % 29.5 %
Northern Europe( 13 ) 581 17.0 % 16.5 %
Total Europe 2,805 22.5 % 21.0 %
API( 10 ) (Pro forma)( 3 ) 904 13.5 % 11.0 %
Total CCEP (Pro forma)( 3 ) 3,709 20.0 % 18.5 %
API
• Volume growth reflects solid trading in Australia & New
Zealand, despite cycling tough comparables, fewer restrictions & Ramadan
buy-in in Indonesia. Strong performance in both the AFH and Home channels,
with volume growth ahead of 2019.
• Coca-Cola No Sugar continued to outperform in Australia &
Monster volumes grew in all markets.
• Revenue/UC( 14 ) broadly flat given the volume outperformance
of Indonesia. Each market delivered solid price/mix with strong improvement in
Australia driven by promotional optimisation.
France
• Volume growth reflects recovery of the AFH channel, ahead of
2019, & soft comparables from cycling tough restrictions last year. Solid
performance in the Home channel.
• Coca-Cola Zero Sugar, Fuze Tea & Monster outperformed,
with volume ahead of 2019.
• Revenue/UC( 14 ) growth driven by AFH channel rebound and
acceleration of small packs in the Home channel.
Germany
• Volume growth reflects recovery of the AFH channel as
restrictions eased throughout the quarter & soft comparables. Continued
strong performance in the Home channel also supported volume growth.
• Coca-Cola Zero Sugar, Fuze Tea & Monster outperformed,
with volume ahead of 2019.
• Revenue/UC( 14 ) growth driven by positive brand & pack
mix from the recovery of the AFH channel e.g. small glass +64.0%, alongside
favourable underlying price.
Great Britain
• Volume growth reflects strong recovery of the AFH channel,
ahead of 2019, & soft comparables from cycling tough restrictions last
year. Solid performance in the Home channel.
• Coca-Cola®, Fanta, Sprite & Monster volumes all ahead of
2019.
• Revenue/UC( 14 ) growth driven by positive customer &
brand mix from the AFH channel rebound, promotional optimisation &
favourable underlying price.
Iberia
• Volume growth reflects recovery of the AFH channel & soft
comparables from cycling tough restrictions on HoReCa( 7 ) last year. The
increased Spanish VAT rate continued to impact volume within the Home channel.
• Coca-Cola Zero Sugar & Monster volumes both ahead of 2019.
• Revenue/UC( 14 ) growth driven by positive pack & channel
mix led by the on-going recovery of the AFH channel & favourable
underlying price.
Northern Europe
• Volume growth reflects recovery of the AFH channel as
restrictions eased towards the end of the quarter & soft comparables.
Solid trading in March & increased mobility supported overall volume
growth ahead of 2019.
• Coca-Cola Zero Sugar, Fanta & Monster all outperformed,
with volume ahead of 2019.
• Revenue/UC( 14 ) growth driven by positive brand & pack
mix from the recovery of the AFH channel e.g. small glass +376%, alongside
favourable underlying price.
First-Quarter Pro Forma Volume Performance by Category( 2 , 3 , 6 )
All values are unaudited and all references to volumes are on a comparable
basis
Q1
% of Total % Change
Sparkling 84.5 % 15.0 %
Coca-Cola® 58.0 % 12.5 %
Flavours, Mixers & Energy 26.5 % 21.0 %
Stills 15.5 % 20.0 %
Hydration 8.0 % 20.0 %
RTD Tea, RTD Coffee, Juices & Other( 15 ) 7.5 % 20.0 %
Total 100.0 % 16.0 %
Coca-Cola®
• Original Taste +13.5%; Lights +11.0% driven by the reopening
of the AFH channel & continued solid performance of the reformulated &
rebranded Coca-Cola Zero Sugar (+12.5%)
• Coca-Cola Zero Sugar in growth vs 2019 (+22.0%)
• GB outperformed with growth in Original Taste, Zero Sugar
& Diet Coke vs 2019
Flavours, Mixers & Energy
• Fanta +27.0% & Sprite +26.5% driven by the reopening of
the AFH channel
• Continuing trends in Energy, with strong growth: +19.0% vs
2021 & +72.5% vs 2019. Growth led by Monster, reflecting exciting
innovation & solid in-market execution
Hydration
• Water +17.0% reflecting increased mobility & the reopening
of the AFH channel
• Water in decline vs 2019 (-28.5%), partially offset by Sports
(+8.0%)
• Sparkling Water continued to deliver solid growth in Australia
(+17.5% vs 2021; +47.5% vs 2019) driven by multi-pack can formats &
flavour innovation in the Home channel
RTD Tea, RTD Coffee, Juices & Other( 15 )
• Juice drinks +19.0% driven by increased mobility & solid
growth in Capri-Sun (+20.0% vs 2019)
• Fuze Tea in growth vs 2019 (+42.5%( 16 )) & continuing to
grow value share in Europe( 4 , 16 )
• Alcohol delivered strong growth in Australia (+14.5% vs 2021
& +21.0% vs 2019) driven by RTD Alcohol
Conference Call
• 27 April 2022 at 12:00 BST, 13:00 CEST & 7:00 a.m. EDT; accessible
via www.cocacolaep.com
• Replay & transcript will be available at www.cocacolaep.com as
soon as possible
Dividend
• The CCEP Board of Directors declared a first-half interim dividend of
€0.56 per share
• The interim dividend is payable 26 May 2022 to those shareholders of
record on 13 May 2022
• CCEP will pay the interim dividend in euros to holders of shares on
Euronext Amsterdam, the Spanish Stock Exchanges & London Stock Exchange
• Other publicly held shares will be converted into an equivalent US
dollar amount using exchange rates issued by WM/Reuters taken at 16:00 BST on
27 April 2022. This translated amount will be posted on our website here:
https://ir.cocacolaep.com/shareholder-information-and-tools/dividends
Financial Calendar
• H1 2022 Results: 4 August 2022
• Q3 2022 Trading update: 2 November 2022, Investor event: 2-3 November
2022
Contacts
Investor Relations
Sarah Willett Joe Collins Claire Copps
+44 7970 145 218 +44 7583 903 560 +44 7980 775 889
Media Relations
Shanna Wendt Nick Carter
+44 7976 595 168 +44 7976 595 275
About CCEP
Coca-Cola Europacific Partners is one of the world's leading consumer goods
companies. We make, move and sell some of the world's most loved brands -
serving 600 million consumers and helping 1.75 million customers across 29
countries grow.
We combine the strength and scale of a large, multi-national business with an
expert, local knowledge of the customers we serve and communities we support.
The Company is currently listed on Euronext Amsterdam, the NASDAQ Global
Select Market, London Stock Exchange and on the Spanish Stock Exchanges,
trading under the symbol CCEP.
For more information about CCEP, please visit www.cocacolaep.com & follow
CCEP on Twitter at @CocaColaEP.
___________________
1. A unit case equals approximately 5.678 litres or 24 8-ounce
servings
2. Refer to 'Note Regarding the Presentation of Pro forma
financial information and Alternative Performance Measures' for further
details and to 'Supplementary Financial Information' for a reconciliation of
reported to comparable and reported to pro forma comparable results; Change
percentages against prior year equivalent period unless stated otherwise
3. Comparative pro forma figures as if the acquisition of
Coca-Cola Amatil Limited occurred at 1 January 2021 presented for illustrative
purposes only, it is not intended to estimate or predict future financial
performance or what actual results would have been. Acquisition completed on
10 May 2021. Prepared on a basis consistent with CCEP accounting policies for
the period 1 January to 10 May 2021. Refer to 'Note Regarding the Presentation
of Pro forma financial information and Alternative Performance Measures' for
further details
4. Combined NARTD (non-alcoholic ready to drink) NielsenIQ Global
Track YTD data for BE, DE, ES, FR, NL, NO, PT & SE to 03.Apr.22; GB to
02.Apr.22; NZ to 27.Mar.22; IND to 13.Mar.22; NARTD IRI data for AUS to
03.Apr.22. Online Data is for available markets YTD GB to 27.Mar.22 (Retailer
data) + 02.Apr.22 (NielsenIQ), ES, FR, NL & SE to 03.Apr.22 (NielsenIQ),
AUS to 03.Apr.22 (Retailer Data)
5. Comparable & Fx-neutral
6. Adjusted for 1 less selling day in Q1; CCEP Q1 pro forma
volume +14.0%
7. HoReCa = Hotels, Restaurants & Cafes
8. Management's best estimate
9. Dividends subject to Board approval
10. Includes Australia, New Zealand & the Pacific Islands,
Indonesia & Papua New Guinea
11. Includes France & Monaco
12. Includes Spain, Portugal & Andorra
13. Includes Belgium, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden
& Iceland
14. Revenue per unit case
15. RTD refers to ready to drink; Other includes Alcohol &
Coffee
16. Europe only
Forward-Looking Statements
This document contains statements, estimates or projections that constitute
"forward-looking statements" concerning the financial condition, performance,
results, strategy and objectives of Coca-Cola Europacific Partners plc and its
subsidiaries (together CCEP or the Group). Generally, the words "ambition",
"target", "aim", "believe", "expect", "intend", "estimate", "anticipate",
"project", "plan", "seek", "may", "could", "would", "should", "might", "will",
"forecast", "outlook", "guidance", "possible", "potential", "predict",
"objective" and similar expressions identify forward-looking statements, which
generally are not historical in nature.
Forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks that could cause
actual results to differ materially from CCEP's historical experience and
present expectations or projections, including with respect to the acquisition
of Coca-Cola Amatil Limited and its subsidiaries (together "CCL" or "API")
completed on 10 May 2021 (the "Acquisition"). As a result, undue reliance
should not be placed on forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the
date on which they are made. These risks include but are not limited to:
1. those set forth in the "Risk Factors" section of CCEP's 2021 Annual Report
on Form 20-F filed with the SEC on 15 March 2022;
2. those set forth in the "Business and Sustainability Risks" section of CCL's
2020 Financial and Statutory Reports; and
3. risks and uncertainties relating to the Acquisition, including the risk
that the businesses will not be integrated successfully or such
integration may be more difficult, time consuming or costly than expected,
which could result in additional demands on CCEP's resources, systems,
procedures and controls, disruption of its ongoing business and diversion of
management's attention from other business concerns; the possibility that
certain assumptions with respect to API or the Acquisition could prove to be
inaccurate; burdensome conditions imposed in connection with any regulatory
approvals; ability to raise financing; the potential that the Acquisition may
involve unexpected liabilities for which there is no indemnity; the potential
failure to retain key employees as a result of the Acquisition or during
integration of the businesses and disruptions resulting from the Acquisition,
making it more difficult to maintain business relationships; the potential for
(i) negative reaction from financial markets, customers, regulators, employees
and other stakeholders, (ii) litigation related to the Acquisition.
The full extent to which COVID-19 will negatively affect CCEP and the results
of its operations, financial condition and cash flows will depend on future
developments that are highly uncertain and cannot be predicted, including the
scope and duration of the pandemic and actions taken by governmental
authorities and other third parties in response to the pandemic.
Due to these risks, CCEP's actual future results, dividend payments, capital
and leverage ratios, growth, including growth in revenue, cost of sales per
unit case and operating profit, free cash flow, market share, tax rate,
efficiency savings, achievement of sustainability goals, including net zero
emissions, and the results of the integration of the businesses following the
Acquisition, including expected efficiency and combination savings, may differ
materially from the plans, goals, expectations and guidance set out in
forward-looking statements (including those issued by CCL prior to the
Acquisition). These risks may also adversely affect CCEP's share price.
Additional risks that may impact CCEP's future financial condition and
performance are identified in filings with the SEC which are available on the
SEC's website at www.sec.gov. CCEP does not undertake any obligation to
publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result
of new information, future events, or otherwise, except as required under
applicable rules, laws and regulations. Furthermore, CCEP assumes no
responsibility for the accuracy and completeness of any forward-looking
statements. Any or all of the forward-looking statements contained in this
filing and in any other of CCEP's or CCL's public statements (whether prior or
subsequent to the Acquisition) may prove to be incorrect.
Note Regarding the Presentation of Pro forma financial information and
Alternative Performance Measures
Pro forma financial information
Pro forma financial information has been provided in order to illustrate the
effects of the acquisition of Coca-Cola Amatil Limited (referred to as CCL pre
acquisition, API post acquisition) on the results of operations of CCEP and
allow for greater comparability of the results of the combined group between
periods. The pro forma financial information has been prepared for
illustrative purposes only and because of its nature, addresses a hypothetical
situation. It is based on information and assumptions that CCEP believes are
reasonable. For further information, refer to our 2021 Annual Report on Form
20-F filed with the SEC on 15 March 2022, which provides further details on
our non-GAAP performance measures and reconciles, where applicable, our
results as reported under IFRS to Pro forma financial information and non-GAAP
performance measures.
The Pro forma financial information presented in this document reflects the
inclusion of API revenue as if the acquisition had occurred at the beginning
of the period presented and prepared on a basis consistent with CCEP
accounting policies.
The pro forma financial information does not intend to represent what CCEP's
results of operations actually would have been if the acquisition had been
completed on the dates indicated, nor does it intend to represent, predict or
estimate the results of operations for any future period or financial position
at any future date. In addition, it does not reflect ongoing cost savings that
CCEP expects to achieve as a result of the acquisition or the costs necessary
to achieve these cost savings or synergies. As pro forma information is
prepared to illustrate retrospectively the effects of future transactions,
there are limitations that are inherent to the nature of pro forma
information. As such, had the acquisition taken place on the dates assumed,
the actual effects would not necessarily have been the same as those presented
in the Pro Forma financial information contained herein.
Alternative Performance Measures
We use certain alternative performance measures (non-GAAP performance
measures) to make financial, operating and planning decisions and to evaluate
and report performance. We believe these measures provide useful information
to investors and as such, where clearly identified, we have included certain
alternative performance measures in this document to allow investors to better
analyse our business performance and allow for greater comparability. To do
so, we have excluded items affecting the comparability of period-over-period
financial performance as described below. The alternative performance measures
included herein should be read in conjunction with and do not replace the
directly reconcilable GAAP measures.
For purposes of this document, the following terms are defined:
''As reported'' are results extracted from our consolidated financial
statements.
''Pro forma'' includes the results of CCEP and API as if the Acquisition had
occurred at the beginning of the period presented, including acquisition
accounting adjustments relating to provisional fair values. Pro forma also
includes impact of the additional debt financing costs incurred by CCEP in
connection with the Acquisition for all periods presented.
"Comparable'' is defined as results excluding items impacting comparability,
which include restructuring charges, acquisition and integration related
costs, inventory fair value step up related to acquisition accounting, the
impact of the closure of the GB defined benefit pension scheme, net costs
related to European flooding and net tax items relating to rate and law
changes. Comparable volume is also adjusted for selling days.
''Pro forma Comparable'' is defined as the pro forma results excluding items
impacting comparability, as described above.
''Fx-neutral'' is defined as period results excluding the impact of foreign
exchange rate changes. Foreign exchange impact is calculated by recasting
current year results at prior year exchange rates.
''Free cash flow'' is defined as net cash flows from operating activities less
capital expenditures (as defined above) and interest paid. Free cash flow is
used as a measure of the Group's cash generation from operating activities,
taking into account investments in property, plant and equipment and
non-discretionary lease and interest payments. Free cash flow is not intended
to represent residual cash flow available for discretionary expenditures.
''Dividend payout ratio'' is defined as dividends as a proportion of
comparable profit after tax.
Additionally, within this document, we provide certain forward-looking
non-GAAP financial Information, which management uses for planning and
measuring performance. We are not able to reconcile forward-looking non-GAAP
measures to reported measures without unreasonable efforts because it is not
possible to predict with a reasonable degree of certainty the actual impact or
exact timing of items that may impact comparability throughout year.
Unless otherwise stated, percent amounts are rounded to the nearest 0.5%.
Supplemental Financial Information - Revenue - Reported to Pro forma
Comparable
Revenue
Pro forma Revenue CCEP First-Quarter Ended
In millions of €, except per case data which is calculated prior to
rounding. FX impact calculated by recasting current year results at prior year
rates.
1 April 2022 2 April 2021 % Change
As reported and comparable 3,709 2,293 62.0 %
Add: Pro forma adjustments( 1 ) n/a 797 n/a
Pro forma Comparable 3,709 3,090 20.0 %
Adjust: Impact of fx changes (49) n/a n/a
Pro forma Comparable and fx-neutral 3,660 3,090 18.5 %
Pro forma Revenue per unit case 4.95 4.77 3.5 %
Pro forma Revenue API First-Quarter Ended
In millions of €, except per case data which is calculated prior to
rounding. FX impact calculated by recasting current year results at prior year
rates.
1 April 2022 2 April 2021 % Change
As reported and comparable 904 - n/a
Add: Pro forma adjustments( 1 ) n/a 797 n/a
Pro forma Comparable 904 797 13.5 %
Adjust: Impact of fx changes (21) n/a n/a
Pro forma Comparable and fx-neutral 883 797 11.0 %
Pro forma Revenue per unit case 4.96 5.00 (0.5) %
( 1 ) The Pro forma financial information for 2021 reflects the inclusion of
API revenue as if the acquisition had occurred at the beginning of the period
presented and prepared on a basis consistent with CCEP accounting policies.
Volume
Comparable Volume - Selling Day Shift CCEP First-Quarter Ended
In millions of unit cases, prior period volume recast using current year
selling days
1 April 2022 2 April 2021 % Change
Volume 740 489 51.5 %
Impact of selling day shift n/a (7) n/a
Comparable volume - Selling Day Shift adjusted 740 482 53.5 %
Pro forma impact( 1 ) - 157 n/a
Pro forma comparable volume 740 639 16.0 %
Comparable Volume - Selling Day Shift API First-Quarter Ended
In millions of unit cases, prior period volume recast using current year
selling days
1 April 2022 2 April 2021 % Change
Volume 178 - n/a
Impact of selling day shift n/a - n/a
Comparable volume - Selling Day Shift adjusted 178 - n/a
Pro forma impact( 1 ) - 157 n/a
Pro forma comparable volume 178 157 13.5 %
( 1 ) API volume for the quarter ended 2 April 2021 is 160 million unit cases.
Including the impact of the Q1 selling day shift (3 million unit cases),
comparable API volume is 157 million unit cases.
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