REG - Coca-Cola HBC AG - Strong start; reiterating 2024 guidance
30/04/2024 07:00
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RNS Number : 4935M Coca-Cola HBC AG 30 April 2024
FIRST QUARTER 2024 TRADING UPDATE
Strong start; reiterating 2024 guidance
Coca-Cola HBC AG, a growth-focused Consumer Packaged Goods business and
strategic bottling partner of The Coca-Cola Company, today announces its Q1
2024 trading update.
First quarter highlights
· Continued execution of our 24/7 strategy delivered 12.6% organic
revenue growth(1)
o Organic volume grew 1.8%, driven by good performances in Emerging and
Developing markets; Sparkling volumes were stable, while Energy and Coffee
delivered strong double-digit growth (up +37.3% and +34.3% respectively)
o Organic revenue per case increased 10.6%, reflecting effective revenue
growth management initiatives through the last twelve months
o Reported revenue growth of 1.0%, with strong organic growth offset by FX
translation headwinds in Nigeria and Egypt
o Ongoing improvement in value share on top of strong gains in 2023; 120bps
gain in Non-Alcoholic Ready-To-Drink (NARTD) and 70bps in Sparkling
year-to-date
· Organic revenue growth across all segments, led by a particularly
good performance in Emerging
o Established: Organic revenue up 5.1%, led by revenue-per-case expansion,
with volumes impacted by tough comparatives
o Developing: Organic revenue increased by 12.5%, with an encouraging
improvement in volumes after a challenging 2023
o Emerging: Organic revenue up 19.0%, driven by revenue-per-case expansion,
and with a resilient volume performance despite macroeconomic headwinds and
currency devaluation
· Further investment in our unique 24/7 portfolio and bespoke
capabilities
o Single-serve mix in Sparkling increased 230 basis points, enabled by
revenue growth management initiatives
o Monster Energy Green Zero Sugar launched in 16 markets, supporting
Monster's continued strong growth
o Coffee growth driven by premium out-of-home recruitment
o Finlandia Vodka distribution expanded to a further 17 markets
o Announced an agreement to acquire BDS Vending in Ireland, advancing our
in-house capabilities in vending and enhancing our route-to-market
capabilities
Zoran Bogdanovic, Chief Executive Officer of Coca-Cola HBC AG, commented:
"We have made a strong start to the year, with continued progress of our 24/7
strategy. Organic revenues grew by 12.6% led by our strategic priority
categories of Sparkling, Energy and Coffee. We are also pleased to report
another quarter of volume growth and market share gains.
"During the period, informed by data, insights and analytics, we have
accelerated investment in our unique 24/7 portfolio and in our bespoke
capabilities, with several new brand launches and targeted initiatives across
our markets. This ensures our continued strong in-market execution, in close
collaboration with our customers.
"Although we are mindful of the broader macroeconomic backdrop, we are
confident in delivering our financial guidance in the year ahead and on making
further progress against our medium-term growth targets."
Q1 2024 vs Q1 2023 Net sales revenue Volume Net sales revenue per unit case
growth (%) Organic(1) Reported Organic(1) Reported Organic(1) Reported
Total Group 12.6 1.0 1.8 1.9 10.6 -0.8
Established markets 5.1 6.6 -3.8 -3.7 9.3 10.6
Developing markets 12.5 16.5 4.2 4.2 8.0 11.8
Emerging markets 19.0 -8.3 3.2 3.2 15.3 -11.2
(1) For details on Alternative Performance Measures ('APMs') refer to
'Alternative Performance Measures' and 'Definitions and reconciliations of
APMs' sections.
Business Outlook
We have delivered a strong start to 2024. While we expect the macroeconomic
and geopolitical environment to remain challenging, we have high confidence in
our 24/7 portfolio and the opportunities for growth in our diverse markets,
amplified by our bespoke capabilities, and above all, the talent of our
people. In 2024 we expect to make progress against our medium-term growth
targets.
We are confident in reiterating our guidance for 2024:
· Achieving our mid-term target of organic revenue growth at a Group
level of 6-7%
· On a comparable basis, COGS per unit case should increase low to
mid-single digits through the combined effect of inflation, transactional and
translational FX
· Organic EBIT growth in the range of +3% to +9%
Technical 2024 guidance
Our technical guidance is unchanged from what we provided at the FY23 results.
FX: We expect the impact of translational FX on our Group comparable EBIT to
be a €30 - 50 million headwind.
Restructuring: We do not expect significant restructuring costs to occur.
Tax: We expect our comparable effective tax rate to be towards the top end of
our 25% to 27% range.
Finance costs: We expect net finance costs to be between €50 - 70 million.
Scope: We expect the scope impact from the Finlandia acquisition on comparable
EBIT to be between €5 - 10 million.
Operational highlights
Leveraging our unique 24/7 portfolio
Organic revenue increased by 12.6% in the first quarter of 2024, with 1.8%
growth in volumes, as well as strong revenue-per-case enhancement. Reported
net sales revenue increased by 1.0%, with adverse FX translation effects in
Emerging markets offsetting strong organic growth.
· Sparkling volumes were flat in the quarter. Trademark Coke grew
low-single digits, with good growth in Zero and low/no sugar variants.
Momentum in Adult Sparkling continued, with low-double digit growth overall,
ongoing good performance from Schweppes, and notably strong, double-digit
growth in Kinley. Fanta and Sprite declined mid-single digits, driven by
Emerging markets and tough comparatives.
· Energy volumes grew 37.3%, with strong momentum particularly in
Emerging markets. We launched Monster Energy Green Zero Sugar in 16 markets in
the quarter, adding to the three markets launched in Q4 2023.
· Coffee grew by 34.3%, with good performance in Developing and
Emerging, and strong growth in Caffè Vergnano. We continued to recruit
out-of-home outlets for Costa Coffee and Caffè Vergnano.
· Still volumes grew 2.5%. We achieved growth in Water in Emerging
markets on soft comparatives, which offset declines in Established and
Developing, where the category was impacted by our conscious choices to focus
on opportunities for the most profitable revenue growth. We delivered robust
growth in Sports Drinks in Developing and Emerging markets.
Winning in the marketplace
Organic net sales revenue per case grew 10.6%. Within our revenue growth
management toolkit, pricing remained the most important driver of value. We
continued to adjust our pricing in Q1 2024 to mitigate ongoing cost inflation,
albeit at a lower level than 2023. We also made successful pricing
interventions to navigate currency devaluation, regulation and taxation in
specific markets. In addition, we benefitted from the cycling impact of
pricing taken in 2023, an impact we expect to reduce through the course of the
year.
In Q1, and in our plans for 2024, we continued to use our revenue growth
management framework to strengthen our customer offer, including through
affordability and premiumisation initiatives. Affordability actions range from
new promotion strategies leveraging data and insights to improve returns,
including promotions on key pack formats, to new entry packages at specific
price points. Premiumisation continues to be important for a large number of
consumers, and our leading ability to use data, insights and analytics to
segment our customer base allows us to personalise portfolio assortments to
address specific consumer needs.
We continued to see an improvement in package and category mix in the quarter.
Category mix benefitted from the increased contribution of Energy, while
package mix improved due to effective activations of single-serve multipacks,
which drove single-serve mix up 210 basis points.
Our execution in the marketplace and joint value creation with customers
enabled us to continue to gain share, building on strong gains in 2023. We
gained 120 basis points of value share in NARTD and 70 basis points in
Sparkling year-to-date.
ESG leadership
Packaging circularity continues to be a focus. Deposit return schemes went
live in both the Republic of Ireland and Hungary. In Nigeria, we are
co-investing together with The Coca-Cola Company to build the first-ever
Coca-Cola System-owned and operated packaging collection facility. We expect
it to be operational in the second half of 2024, collecting around 100 tonnes
of plastic bottles each month.
In Q1, we continued our long-running commitment to the communities and
watersheds in the six markets that the Danube River runs through, by joining
The Living Danube Partnership, helping nature and communities thrive along the
river basin.
Established markets
Established markets net sales revenue grew by 5.1% and 6.6% on an organic and
reported basis respectively.
Organic net sales revenue per case increased by 9.3%. Established markets
benefitted from pricing actions taken through 2023 as well as specific
additional increases in Q1 2024 to navigate inflation and regulation. We drove
another quarter of strong improvement in package mix, with single-serve
improving 130 basis points.
Volume in the segment declined 3.8% organically, on tough comparatives.
Sparkling volumes declined by mid-single digits, slightly offset by a positive
performance from Coke Zero and Adult Sparkling. Energy grew by mid-single
digits despite tough comparatives and Juice volumes grew by low-single digits
in the period.
In Italy, volumes decreased by high-single digits on tough comparatives.
Sparkling volumes declined by mid-single digits due to Trademark Coke,
partially offset by Adult Sparkling, which grew by high-single digits. Stills
declined low-teens driven by Water, partially offset by Juice volumes, up
mid-single digits.
In Greece, volumes grew by low-single digits despite challenging comparatives.
Sparkling volumes were flat with a positive performance from Coke Zero and
Adult Sparkling. Energy grew low-single digits and Stills grew by high-single
digits, driven by low double-digit growth in Water.
In Ireland, volumes decreased by mid-single digits, as consumers adjusted to
the impact of the Deposit Return Scheme in the Republic of Ireland launched in
February. Sparkling volumes declined mid-single digits, while Energy and
Coffee volumes grew mid-single digits.
In Switzerland, volumes declined low-single digits. Sparkling declined
mid-single digits, offset by high-single digit growth in Stills, driven by
low-double digit growth in Water.
Developing markets
Net sales revenue grew by 12.5% and 16.5% on an organic and reported basis
respectively.
Organic net sales revenue per case increased by 8.0%. The segment benefitted
from carryover pricing, as well as positive channel and category mix.
Developing markets volume grew 4.2% organically, with good momentum from our
strategic priority categories. Sparkling grew mid-single digits with Coke Zero
up low-double digits and Adult Sparkling up mid-teens. Coffee grew high-single
digits despite tough comparatives.
Poland volumes increased by low-single digits, building on a strong prior year
performance. Sparkling volumes grew by mid-single digits, with growth across
all brands. Energy declined by high-single digits on challenging comparatives
and with some impact from the introduction of regulatory measures since the
start of January 2024. Stills volumes declined low-double digits driven by
Water and Juice.
In Hungary, volumes grew by low-single digits, driven by our strategic
priority categories. Sparkling grew mid-single digits. Energy grew by over 30%
and Coffee grew by nearly 30% despite challenging comparatives.
Volume in the Czech Republic increased by low-double digits, with low-teens
growth in Sparkling and mid-single digit growth in Stills. Energy declined
low-single digits on very challenging comparatives, while Coffee grew
strong-double digits.
Emerging markets
Emerging markets net sales revenue grew by 19.0% on an organic basis but
declined by 8.3% on a reported basis predominantly due to currency
devaluations in Nigeria and Egypt.
Net sales revenue per case grew 15.3% organically, as we made conscious
decisions to drive pricing to manage cost inflation and currency devaluations,
as well as benefitting from positive category and package mix.
Emerging markets volume grew 3.2% organically. Sparkling volumes were flat,
with over 30% growth in low/no sugar variants of Trademark Coke. Energy saw
strong double-digit growth, despite tough comparatives. Stills grew mid-single
digits, driven by Water.
Volume in Nigeria grew high-teens despite the challenging macroeconomic
environment, reflecting our good execution in the market. We purposely drove
strong price mix to manage cost inflation and currency devaluation, while
still gaining value share. Energy delivered strong double-digit growth, as
momentum continued in Predator and Monster. Sparkling volumes grew mid-teens
driven by Trademark Coke and Adult Sparkling. Within Stills, we saw high-teens
growth in Juices.
Ukraine volume declined mid-single digits. Sparkling declined mid-single
digits driven by Trademark Coke, partially offset by a positive performance
from Coke Zero and Adult Sparkling. Energy grew mid-teens with good underlying
momentum, while Stills volumes grew mid-single digits.
In Romania, volumes declined low-double digits driven by Sparkling and Stills.
The consumer environment remained challenging, impacted by the introduction of
a sugar tax in January, on top of the VAT increase in January 2023 and the
launch of a Deposit Return Scheme in November 2023. Energy and Coffee
continued their strong momentum with volumes up high-teens and mid-teens
respectively.
In Egypt, volumes declined by mid-single digits, reflecting a challenging
consumer and macroeconomic environment. We proactively drove strong price mix
to manage inflation and the currency devaluation in the period. Sparkling
declined high-teens, impacted by pushback against some western brands. Energy
continued its strong momentum from the launch in 2023. Water grew by over 30%.
Russia volumes grew low-single digits as we continued to operate a
self-sufficient local business.
Supplementary information
Group First quarter 2024 First quarter 2023 % %
Reported Organic(2)
Volume (m unit cases)(3) 632.6 621.1 1.9% 1.8%
Net sales revenue (€ m) 2,225.4 2,202.5 1.0% 12.6%
Net sales revenue per unit case (€) 3.52 3.55 -0.8% 10.6%
Established markets
Volume (m unit cases) 131.9 136.9 -3.7% -3.8%
Net sales revenue (€ m) 742.6 696.6 6.6% 5.1%
Net sales revenue per unit case (€) 5.63 5.09 10.6% 9.3%
Developing markets
Volume (m unit cases) 104.5 100.3 4.2% 4.2%
Net sales revenue (€ m) 480.1 412.2 16.5% 12.5%
Net sales revenue per unit case (€) 4.59 4.11 11.8% 8.0%
Emerging markets
Volume (m unit cases) 396.2 383.9 3.2% 3.2%
Net sales revenue (€ m) 1,002.7 1,093.7 -8.3% 19.0%
Net sales revenue per unit case (€) 2.53 2.85 -11.2% 15.3%
(2) For details on APMs refer to 'Alternative Performance Measures' and
'Definitions and reconciliations of APMs' sections.
(3) One unit case corresponds to approximately 5.678 litres or 24 servings,
being a typically used measure of volume. For biscuits volume, one unit case
corresponds to 1 kilogram. For coffee volume, one unit case corresponds to 0.5
kilograms or 5.678 litres.
Conference call
Coca-Cola HBC will host a conference call for financial analysts and investors
to discuss the 2024 first quarter trading update on Tuesday 30 April 2024 at
9:30 am BST. To join the call in listen-only mode, please join via the webcast
(https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/m9k4scwf) . If you anticipate asking a
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and to find dial-in details.
Next event
7 August 2024 2024 Half-year results
Enquiries
Coca-Cola HBC Group
Investors and Analysts:
Joanna Kennedy Tel: +44 7802 427505
Investor Relations Director joanna.kennedy@cchellenic.com
Jemima Benstead Tel: +44 7740 535130
Investor Relations Manager jemima.benstead@cchellenic.com
Sarah Hebert-Lilley Tel: +36 30 645 8678
Investor Relations Manager sarah.hebert-lilley@cchellenic.com
Virginia Phillips Tel: +44 7864 686582
Investor Relations Manager virginia.phillips@cchellenic.com
Media:
Sonia Bastian Tel: +41 7946 88054
Head of Communications sonia.bastian@cchellenic.com
Coca-Cola HBC Group
Coca-Cola HBC is a growth-focused consumer packaged goods business and
strategic bottling partner of The Coca-Cola Company. We open up moments that
refresh us all, by creating value for our stakeholders and supporting the
socio-economic development of the communities in which we operate. With a
vision to be the leading 24/7 beverage partner, we offer drinks for all
occasions around the clock and work together with our customers to serve 740
million consumers across a broad geographic footprint of 29 countries. Our
portfolio is one of the strongest, broadest and most flexible in the beverage
industry, with consumer-leading beverage brands in the sparkling, adult
sparkling, juice, water, sport, energy, ready-to-drink tea, coffee, and
premium spirits categories. These include Coca-Cola, Coca-Cola Zero Sugar,
Fanta, Sprite, Schweppes, Kinley, Costa Coffee, Caffè Vergnano, Valser,
FuzeTea, Powerade, Cappy, Monster Energy, Finlandia Vodka, The Macallan, Jack
Daniel's and Grey Goose. We foster an open and inclusive work environment
amongst our 33,000 employees and believe that building a more positive
environmental impact is integral to our future growth. We rank among the top
sustainability performers in ESG benchmarks such as the Dow Jones
Sustainability Indices, CDP, MSCI ESG, FTSE4Good and ISS ESG.
Coca-Cola HBC has a premium listing on the London Stock Exchange (LSE: CCH)
and is listed on the Athens Exchange (ATHEX: EEE). For more information,
please visit https://www.coca-colahellenic.com
(https://www.coca-colahellenic.com/) .
Special Note Regarding the Information set out herein
Unless otherwise indicated, this trading update and the financial and
operating data or other information included herein relate to Coca-Cola HBC AG
and its subsidiaries ('Coca-Cola HBC' or the 'Company' or 'we' or the
'Group').
Forward-Looking Statements
This document contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and
uncertainties. These statements may generally, but not always, be identified
by the use of words such as 'believe', 'outlook', 'guidance', 'intend',
'expect', 'anticipate', 'plan', 'target' and similar expressions to identify
forward-looking statements. All statements other than statements of historical
facts, including, among others, statements regarding our future financial
position and results, our outlook for 2024 and future years, business strategy
and the effects of the global economic slowdown, the impact of the sovereign
debt crisis, currency volatility, our recent acquisitions, and restructuring
initiatives on our business and financial condition, our future dealings with
The Coca-Cola Company, budgets, projected levels of consumption and
production, projected raw material and other costs, estimates of capital
expenditure, free cash flow, effective tax rates and plans and objectives of
management for future operations, are forward-looking statements. By their
nature, forward-looking statements involve risk and uncertainty because they
reflect our current expectations and assumptions as to future events and
circumstances that may not prove accurate. Our actual results and events could
differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements for
many reasons, including the risks described in the 2023 Integrated Annual
Report for Coca-Cola HBC AG and its subsidiaries.
Although we believe that, as of the date of this document, the expectations
reflected in the forward-looking statements are reasonable, we cannot assure
you that our future results, level of activity, performance or achievements
will meet these expectations. Moreover, neither we, nor our directors,
employees, advisors nor any other person assumes responsibility for the
accuracy and completeness of the forward-looking statements. After the date of
this trading update, unless we are required by law or the rules of the UK
Financial Conduct Authority to update these forward-looking statements, we
will not necessarily update any of these forward-looking statements to conform
them either to actual results or to changes in our expectations.
Alternative Performance Measures
The Group uses certain Alternative Performance Measures ('APMs') in making
financial, operating and planning decisions as well as in evaluating and
reporting its performance. These APMs provide additional insights and
understanding to the Group's underlying operating and financial performance.
The APMs should be read in conjunction with and do not replace by any means
the directly reconcilable International Financial Reporting Standards ('IFRS')
line items.
Definitions and reconciliations of APMs
Organic growth
Organic growth enables users to focus on the operating performance of the
business on a basis which is not affected by changes in foreign currency
exchange rates from period to period or changes in the Group's scope of
consolidation ('consolidation perimeter') i.e. acquisitions, divestments and
reorganisations resulting in equity method accounting. Thus, organic growth is
designed to assist users in better understanding the Group's underlying
performance.
More specifically, the following items are adjusted from the Group's volume
and net sales revenue in order to derive organic growth metrics:
(a) Foreign currency impact
Foreign currency impact in the organic growth calculation reflects the
adjustment of prior-period net sales revenue metric for the impact of changes
in exchange rates applicable to the current period.
(b) Consolidation perimeter impact
Current period volume and net sales revenue metrics are each adjusted for the
impact of changes in the consolidation perimeter. More specifically
adjustments are performed as follows:
i. Acquisitions:
For current-year acquisitions, the results generated in the current period by
the acquired entities are not included in the organic growth calculation. For
prior-year acquisitions, the results generated in the current year over the
period during which the acquired entities were not consolidated in the prior
year are not included in the organic growth calculation.
For current-year step acquisitions where the Group obtains control of a)
entities over which it previously held either joint control or significant
influence and which were accounted for under the equity method, or b) entities
which were carried at fair value either through profit or loss or other
comprehensive income, the results generated in the current year by the
relevant entities over the period during which these entities are consolidated
are not included in the organic growth calculation. For such step acquisitions
of entities previously accounted for under the equity method, the share of
results for the respective period described above is included in the organic
growth calculation of the current year. For such step acquisitions of entities
previously accounted for at fair value through profit or loss, any fair value
gains or losses for the respective period described above, are included in the
organic growth calculation. For such step acquisitions in the prior year, the
results generated in the current year by the relevant entities over the period
during which these entities were not consolidated in the prior year, are not
included in the organic growth calculation. However, the share of results or
gains or losses from fair value changes of the respective entities, based on
their accounting treatment prior to the step acquisition, for the current-year
period during which these entities were not consolidated in the prior year are
included in the organic growth calculation.
ii. Divestments:
For current-year divestments, the results generated in the prior year by the
divested entities over the period during which the divested entities are no
longer consolidated in the current year are included in the current year's
results for the purpose of the organic growth calculation. For prior-year
divestments, the results generated in the prior year by the divested entities
over the period during which the divested entities were consolidated, are
included in the current year's results for the purpose of the organic growth
calculation.
iii. Reorganisations resulting in equity method accounting:
For current-year reorganisations where the Group maintains either joint
control or significant influence over the relevant entities so that they are
reclassified from subsidiaries or joint operations to joint ventures or
associates and accounted for under the equity method, the results generated in
the current year by the relevant entities over the period during which these
entities are no longer consolidated are included in the current year's results
for the purpose of the organic growth calculation. For such reorganisations in
the prior year, the results generated in the current year by the relevant
entities over the period during which these entities were consolidated in the
prior year are included in the current year's results for the purpose of the
organic growth calculation. In addition, the share of results in the current
year of the relevant entities, for the respective period as described above,
is excluded from the organic growth calculation for such reorganisations.
The calculations of the organic growth and the reconciliation to the most
directly related measures calculated in accordance with IFRS are presented in
the below tables. Organic growth (%) is calculated by dividing the amount in
the row titled 'Organic movement' by the amount in the associated row titled
'2023 reported' or, where presented, '2023 adjusted'.
Reconciliation of organic measures
First quarter 2024
Volume (m unit cases) Established Developing Emerging Group
2023 reported 136.9 100.3 383.9 621.1
Consolidation perimeter impact 0.2 - - 0.2
Organic movement -5.2 4.2 12.3 11.3
2024 reported 131.9 104.5 396.2 632.6
Organic growth (%) -3.8% 4.2% 3.2% 1.8%
First quarter 2024
Net sales revenue (€ m) Established Developing Emerging Group
2023 reported 696.6 412.2 1,093.7 2,202.5
Foreign currency impact 6.1 14.0 -251.0 -230.9
2023 adjusted 702.7 426.2 842.7 1,971.6
Consolidation perimeter impact 3.8 0.6 0.2 4.6
Organic movement 36.1 53.3 159.8 249.2
2024 reported 742.6 480.1 1,002.7 2,225.4
Organic growth (%) 5.1% 12.5% 19.0% 12.6%
First quarter 2024
Net sales revenue per unit case (€)(4) Established Developing Emerging Group
2023 reported 5.09 4.11 2.85 3.55
Foreign currency impact 0.04 0.14 -0.65 -0.37
2023 adjusted 5.13 4.25 2.20 3.17
Consolidation perimeter impact 0.02 0.01 - 0.01
Organic movement 0.48 0.34 0.34 0.34
2024 reported 5.63 4.59 2.53 3.52
Organic growth (%) 9.3% 8.0% 15.3% 10.6%
(4) Certain differences in calculations are due to rounding.
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