Factbox: Goldman Sachs, HSBC raise oil price forecasts on Gulf disruptions

COMMERZBANK AG

08/09/2026 12:24

Adds HSBC
Sept 8 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs and HSBC raised their oil price forecasts this week as prices climbed to multi-week highs on persistent Middle East shipping disruptions.
Goldman Sachs on Monday raised its Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude oil price forecasts by $5 a barrel for December 2026 and 2027, citing an expectation that shipping disruptions in the Middle East will persist into next year.
Goldman Sachs said in a note that Brent crude could climb above $120 a barrel if average Gulf oil output in 2027 remains 4 million barrels per day below pre-war levels, compared with its base case assumption of a 0.5 million bpd shortfall.
It also noted that Brent crude could fall into the $60s in 2027 under a downside price scenario in which average Gulf oil output rises 1 million barrels per day above pre-war levels.
HSBC on Tuesday raised its 2026 and 2027 Brent price forecasts to $90 and $85 a barrel, respectively.
"We think the market is adjusting to a disrupted 'new normal' in which the strait is neither fully closed nor fully open, but persistently impaired," HSBC said in a note, referring to the vital Strait of Hormuz shipping route.
HSBC said it does not expect the market to return to balance until around mid-2027, implying further inventory drawdowns in coming quarters.
Oil prices hit multi-week highs on Tuesday after Iran-backed Houthis attacked Saudi energy facilities and Tehran threatened the United States with "economic warfare".
Brent crude futures LCOc1 earlier rose to $99.46, their highest since July 24, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude CLc1 reached $94.73, its highest since June 8. O/R
The table below lists price forecasts after the U.S.-Iran peace deal announcement:
Brokerage/Agency
Brent
WTI 
Forecasts as of 
Price Targets
 
2026
2027
2026
2027
 
 
Goldman Sachs

$80

$75
Sept 7
Expects Brent at $85/bbl and WTI at $80/bbl for December 2026
HSBC
$90
$85


Sept 8
Raises  Brent forecast to $95/b for 4Q26, $85/b for 2027, and $75/b thereafter
Morgan Stanley 
 
 
 
 
Aug 23
 
Raises Q326 Brent forecast to $90/bbl and Q426 to $100/bbl; raises Q127 forecast to $95/bbl, Q227 to $90/bbl, Q327 to $80/bbl and Q427 to $75/bbl
UBS
 
 
 
 
Aug 18
Sees Brent crude at $85/bbl end of Dec-26, $80/bbl over end-March to end Sept 2027 period
Citi
 
$65
 
 
Aug 7
Raises Q3 2026 Brent forecast to $80/bbl from $75/bbl
ANZ
 
 
 
 
July 24
Maintains end-Q3 2026 Brent forecast of $92/bbl
Barclays 
$96($100 previously)
$85 ($88 previously)
$90
$82
 
June 26, 2026
Sees Brent at $100/bbl for Q3 2026 and $95/bbl for Q4 2026
Macquarie
$77.09 ($89.28 previously)
$64 ($74.50 previously)
$71.42 ($82.93 previously)
$60 ($70.50 previously)
June 24, 2026
 
J.P. Morgan
$85 ($96 previously)
-
$80 ($89 previously)
$59 ($70 previously)
June 24, 2026
 
Commerzbank
 
 
 
 
June 19, 2026
Expects Brent to trade at $80/bbl by end-2026
BofA
$82
$70
$78
$66
June 17, 2026
 

 (Reporting by Katha Kalia and Sukanya Mitra in Bengaluru; Editing by Stephen Coates and Mark Potter)
 ((sukanya.mitra@thomsonreuters.com;))