By Nick Carey
GREEN BAY, Wisc., Oct. 14 (Reuters) - A new regulation that
will force U.S. trucking companies to electronically log
employee hours is designed to limit accidents by keeping tired
drivers off the road.
It may also drive smaller trucking firms out of business.
A trucking industry survey earlier this year of mostly
small operators found that 84 percent lacked electronic logs,
according to load-matching firm truckstop.com. Paper logs allow
transport companies already facing razor thin margins to fudge
the books, boosting their hours on the road to help the bottom
line.
But a mandated switch to a digital system by late December
2017, regulators say, will boost safety by preventing exhausted
truckers from driving. The Federal Motor Carrier Safety
Administration (FMCSA) forecasts the regulation would save 26
lives per year and prevent 562 injuries.
An FMCSA cost-benefit analysis found the new rule would cost
truck firms $1.8 billion across the sector to implement, but
fewer crashes and less paperwork would save $3 billion.
Industry experts argue that whatever those savings, the
smaller firms and independent owner operators that are the
backbone of a highly fragmented market will take a productivity
hit, making it difficult to pay off their trucks that have
doubled in price since 2000.
As a result, small to mid-size trucking outfits will need to
find more drivers to haul the same amount of freight -- and seek
other ways to cut costs -- in order to make it.
"Some of the smaller (trucking) companies are just not going
to survive" the change to electronic logs, said Dan Clark, head
of BMO Transportation Finance, North America's largest truck and
trailer financing company.
The biggest truck firms back the rule and have used
electronic logs for years. Large outfits like Schneider
National, Swift Transportation Co SWFT.N and Covenant
Transportation Group Inc CVTI.O all say the new logs reduce
truckers' miles on the road.
Cutting down driver miles means higher spending for
additional drivers to haul freight. That leads to higher prices
for consumers unless the firms find ways to squeeze more
productivity out of their trucks.
According to an FMCSA analysis, the rules will affect nearly
3.4 million drivers. Larger firms with better economies of scale
like Werner Enterprises Inc WERN.O have seen their
productivity cut between 3 and 5 percent by electronic logs.
Estimates vary up to 15 percent for how much productivity could
fall at America's small trucking outfits.
Industry lobby group the American Trucking Associations
(ATA) estimates the sector is short about 50,000 drivers.
Electronic logging could leave the industry short 1 million
drivers, according to industry tracker FTR Intel.
The pending change has U.S. railroads hoping to take market
share from the sector. CSX Corp CSX.O Chief Executive Michael
Ward said "won't impact the big truck firms because they follow
the law today, but it will affect small firms."
"This will be a positive for us," Ward said.
"THE ONE THAT HAS THE TRUCK, WINS"
Though it does not kick in until the end of next year and is
being challenged in court by an independent truck driver
association for violating driver privacy, executives are already
bracing for the new rule's impact.
"This will be the single biggest thing to hit our industry
since deregulation," in 1980, which reduced government controls
on trucking rates and routes, says Chris Lofgren, CEO of
Schneider National, whose customers include Walmart Stores Inc
WMT.N and Home Depot Inc HD.N .
Schneider, the biggest private U.S. trucking company with
annual revenue of around $4 billion, offers flexible schedules
for drivers who want weekends at home, or longer routes with
more money.
"I get the routes I want so I can eat up the miles," said
Bob Wyatt, 68, a Schneider driver who has 4.9 million safe miles
on the road.
Truck makers are racing to make automatic vehicles that are
easier and more comfortable to drive to help with driver
retention.
Denny Mooney, head of global product development at truck
maker Navistar NAV.N said he has heard from customers that
say, "'if our drivers don't want to drive your trucks, we won't
buy your trucks.'"
Green Bay-based Schneider is also putting customers under
more scrutiny. Last year, Schneider rolled out an app for
drivers to rate customers, enabling Schneider to fix problems or
drop accounts that consistently chew up driver time.
Rival J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc JBHT.O is doing the
same, after its own report last year found on a good day time
wasted on picking up and dropping off loads can cost a trucker
two hours out of a daily limit of 11 hours driving time, or 100
miles on the road. Drivers get paid by the mile and log an
average of 7,500 miles per month in 2015.
That focus on getting more efficient is one reason why Troy
Clarke, CEO of truck maker Navistar, said he is not convinced
electronic logging will lead to truck sale spike. Instead, he
said, truckers "will address capacity problems through an
increased focus on productivity."
Schneider is focused on building closer relationships with
thousands of smaller carriers through its brokerage business to
boost capacity.
The company expects more long-term contracts like one it has
executed with Home Depot HD.N . Traditionally, pricing power
seesaws between customers and truckers depending on the economy.
Schneider's deal with Home Depot keeps rates per mile more
steady, and guarantees the home improvement chain access to
trucking capacity.
"We believe capacity is going to get tighter and tighter,"
said Erin Van Zeeland, vice president of transportation
management at Schneider. "We believe the one that has the truck,
wins."
(Editing by Joseph White and Edward Tobin)
((Joe.White@thomsonreuters.com;))
Keywords: USA TRANSPORTATION/TRUCKERS