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REG-Custodian Property Income REIT plc Custodian Property Income REIT plc: Diversified strategy, strong leasing and active asset management continue to drive income growth

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 Custodian Property Income REIT plc (CREI)
 Custodian Property Income REIT plc: Diversified strategy, strong leasing and
 active asset management continue to drive income growth

 05-Feb-2025 / 07:00 GMT/BST

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                                                                 5 February 2025

                                         

                       Custodian Property Income REIT plc

                                         

               (“Custodian Property Income REIT” or “the Company”)

                                         

  Diversified strategy, strong leasing and active asset management continue to
                               drive income growth

  

 Custodian Property Income REIT (LSE: CREI), which seeks to deliver an  enhanced
 income return  by investing  in a  diversified portfolio  of smaller,  regional
 properties with strong income characteristics  across the UK, today provides  a
 trading update for the quarter ended 31 December 2024 (“Q3” or the “Quarter”).

  

 Commenting on the trading update, Richard Shepherd-Cross, Managing Director  of
 Custodian Capital Limited, said:  “This Quarter saw  further evidence that  the
 market has bottomed out, with the last 12 months seeing two quarters of broadly
 flat  valuations   followed  by   two  quarters   of  like-for-like   valuation
 growth. These valuation increases add further support to our belief that we are
 at the start of a gradual upwards trend having delivered like-for-like  average
 rental growth  of more  than  5.0% per  annum over  the  last 18  months,  with
 proactive asset management being  the key driver of  returns.  We completed  25
 plus lettings, lease renewals, re-gears and rent reviews during the Quarter  at
 significant average premiums to ERV and previous rent, as well as continuing to
 make  disposals  on  terms  ahead  of  valuation.   These  activities  will  be
 supportive of  future  earnings and  our  longstanding track  record  of  fully
 covering our dividend, which now offers investors an attractive c.8% yield.”

  

 Highlights

  

 Strong leasing activity continues to support rental growth, underpinning  fully
 covered dividend

  

   • 1.5p dividend  per  share  approved  for  the  Quarter,  fully  covered  by
     unaudited EPRA earnings per  share 1  1 , in line with  target of at  least
     6.0p for the year ending 31 March 2025 (FY24: 5.8p).  This target  dividend
     represents a 7.9% yield 2  2  based on the prevailing 76p share price 3  3 
   • EPRA earnings per share of 1.5p for the Quarter (Q2: 1.5p)
   • During the Quarter,  a 0.9%  increase in  like-for-like 4  4  passing  rent
     (FY25  year-to-date  (“YTD”):  3.1%)  and  an  increase  in   like-for-like
     estimated rental value (“ERV”) of  0.6% (FY25 YTD: 2.1%), driven  primarily
     by 1.0% like-for-like  rental growth  in the industrial  sector (FY25  YTD:
     4.7%)
   • Significant potential  for  further  rental  growth  with  the  portfolio’s
     estimate rental value (“ERV”) of  £49.5m exceeding the current the  passing
     rent of  £44.5m by  11% (30  Sept 2024:  11%).  Approximately  35% of  this
     reversion is available from leasing events with the remainder from  letting
     vacant space.  Based on our track  record and occupier demand for space  in
     our assets we expect to capture this potential rental upside at (typically)
     five-yearly rent reviews  or on  re-letting, in addition  to continuing  to
     drive  passing  rent  and  ERV  growth  further  through  asset  management
     initiatives
   • Leasing activity during the Quarter comprised the completion of eight  rent
     reviews at an average 19% increase in annual rent and the letting of  eight
     vacant units which, in aggregate, added  £1.0m to the rent roll.  10  lease
     renewals and regears  were also  completed in  line with  ERV and  previous
     passing rent
   • EPRA occupancy 5  5  was stable  at 93.4% (30 Sept  2024: 93.5%).  1.8%  of
     vacant ERV is subject to refurbishment or under offer to let or sell

  

 Valuations stable across the Company’s c.£590m portfolio, with a small uptick
 on a like-for-like basis

  

   • The value of the Company’s portfolio of  151 assets at the Quarter end  was
     £586.4m (30 Sept 2024:  £582.4m), a like-for-like  increase of 0.5%  during
     the Quarter  (FY25  YTD:  0.8%),  net of  £1.9m  of  capital  expenditure. 
     Benefitting from a diversified portfolio, in the last 12 months the Company
     has seen two  quarters of  stable valuations  followed by  two quarters  of
     modest like-for-like capital growth across almost all asset classes
   • Q3 net asset value (“NAV”) total return per share 6  6  of 2.5%
   • NAV per share grew  by 0.9% to 94.4p  (30 Sept 2024: 93.6p)  with a NAV  of
     £416.1m (30 Sept 2024: £412.7m)

  

 Asset recycling continues to generate aggregate proceeds in excess of valuation

  

   • During the Quarter, the Company successfully disposed of a recently  vacant
     office asset in Solihull to a local owner occupier for £1.4m, 33% ahead  of
     the 30  June 2024  valuation.  Proceeds  have been  used to  fund  earnings
     accretive capital expenditure.

 Redevelopment and  refurbishment activity  continues to  be accretive  with  an
 expected yield on cost of c.7%

  

   • £1.9m of  capital  expenditure  undertaken during  the  Quarter,  primarily
     relating to the pre-let extension of an industrial building in  Livingston,
     which will allow the current occupier to expand into the new space to  help
     with its plans for  growth.  Practical completion  is expected in  February
     2025
   • During the Quarter, the Company generated £0.1m (Q2: £0.1m) of revenue from
     its owned solar  panel installations  across 10 assets,  selling the  clean
     electricity generated  to tenants  and exporting  any surplus.   New  solar
     arrays were  installed in  Lincoln and  Daventry during  the Quarter,  with
     further installations  under consideration  at 12  sites over  the next  12
     months
   • Weighted average energy performance certificate  rating was C(52) (30  Sept
     2024: C(52)) with re-ratings  being carried out  across three units  during
     the Quarter

  

 Prudent debt levels

  

   • Net gearing 7  7  was 28.5% loan-to-value at 31 December 2024 (30 Sept  24:
     28.5%)
   • £171m (30 Sept  24: £174m)  of drawn debt  at 31  December 2024  comprising
     £140m (82%) of  fixed rate debt  and £31m (18%)  drawn under the  Company’s
     variable rate revolving credit facility (“RCF”)
   • Weighted average cost (“WAC”) of aggregate borrowings decreased to 3.9% (30
     Sept 24: 4.0%) following the 25bps base rate reduction in November 2024
   • The Board intends to utilise the Company’s  RCF to repay a £20m fixed  rate
     loan with Scottish  Widows which  is due to  expire in  August 2025.   This
     refinancing is expected to have a  minimal impact on the Company’s WAC,  as
     this loan represents only 12% of drawn debt
   • £120m of longer-term  fixed-rate debt  facilities have  a weighted  average
     term of  6.0 years  and a  WAC of  3.3%, offering  significant  medium-term
     interest rate risk mitigation

  

 Dividends

  

 The Company paid an interim  dividend per share of  1.5p on Friday 29  November
 2024 relating to Q2, fully covered by EPRA earnings.

  

 The Board has approved a fully covered  interim dividend per share of 1.5p  for
 the Quarter payable on  28 February 2025 to shareholders  on the register on  7
 February 2025,  which will  be  designated as  a property  income  distribution
 (“PID”).

  
 Net asset value

  

 The Company’s unaudited NAV at 31  December 2024 was £416.1m, or  approximately
 94.4p per share:

  

                                                           Pence per share    £m
                                                                                
 NAV at 30 September 2024 per Interim Report                          93.6 412.7
                                                                                
 Valuation increase and depreciation                                   0.7   3.0
 Profit on disposal                                                    0.1   0.3
                                                                                
 EPRA earnings for the Quarter                                         1.5   6.7
 Interim quarterly dividend, paid during the Quarter,                (1.5) (6.6)
 relating to Q2
                                                                                
                                                                                
 NAV at 31 December 2024                                              94.4 416.1

  

 The unaudited  NAV  attributable to  the  ordinary  shares of  the  Company  is
 calculated under International Financial  Reporting Standards and  incorporates
 the independent portfolio valuation at 31 December 2024 and net income for  the
 Quarter.  The movement  in unaudited  NAV reflects  the payment  of an  interim
 dividend per share  of 1.5p  during the  Quarter, but  as usual  this does  not
 include any  provision for  the approved  dividend of  1.5p per  share for  the
 Quarter to be paid on 28 February 2025.

  

 Investment Manager’s commentary

  

 Market update

  

 The listed property  sector has yet  to deliver the  forecast recovery  despite
 recent positive  indicators in  the  direct property  market.   Notwithstanding
 discernible rental growth and the  clear identification of an inflection  point
 in direct investment markets,  economic gloom and high  10-year gilt rates  are
 acting as a brake on the listed sector.

  

 However, there are reasons  to be cheerful.   Property market commentators  are
 forecasting stronger returns in 2025 than 2024, highlighting the importance  of
 income in driving total  return.  There is a  sense that after property  values
 adjusted from 2022-24,  reflecting the impact  of increasing cost  of debt  and
 other external factors, it would take a significant shock to knock the recovery
 off course.  That said, it is also widely believed that the rate and  near-term
 magnitude of recovery will now be more muted relative to earlier estimates.

  

 In considering the current  share price and likely  performance there are  four
 factors that mitigate against downside risks:  the current discount to NAV  and
 associated high dividend  yield, the reversionary  potential of the  portfolio,
 the benefits  of  diversification  which offers  defensiveness  of  income  and
 flexibility of strategy, and  the risk premium of  commercial real estate  over
 10-year gilts.

  

 While we  remain  firm  in  our  belief  that  earnings  and  the  dividend  we
 consistently deliver our shareholders are the most effective ways to assess the
 Company’s performance,  its average  discount to  NAV has  recently widened  to
 around 20%.  While  this remains  favourable versus  many peers,  it implies  a
 yield shift on the underlying value of the property portfolio of 1.35% which is
 sharply at odds with both the Company’s independent quarterly valuations, which
 show a stable portfolio topped-up net  initial yield 8  8  of 6.9%, as well  as
 the direct market expectation  that valuations have  reached the bottom.   With
 the reasonable expectation of falling interest  rates over the short to  medium
 term, there would  appear to be  far more upside  potential on valuations  than
 downside risk, which we do not believe is reflected in the current discount.

  

 Dividends are fully  covered by recurring  (EPRA) earnings, which  are in  turn
 supported by a  growing rent roll  from the 151  properties in the  portfolio. 
 Over the  last  18 months  annual  like-for-like  growth in  passing  rent  has
 averaged 5.8% per annum  with ERV growing  at 3.2% per  annum.  We expect  this
 growing rent roll to continue  to support dividends of  6.0p per share, a  rate
 that has grown annually by a compound 4.65% since March 2021.  Our  diversified
 portfolio is deliberately weighted towards sectors with the most rental  growth
 potential to support both future dividends and capital values.

  

 Research reported by  Legal and  General last year 9  9   indicated that  since
 1981 the risk premium of commercial real estate over 10-year gilts 10  10   was
 estimated at 2.6%.  Comparing the prevailing 10-year gilt rate 11  11  of  4.5%
 to Custodian Property Income REIT’s share price yield of 7.9% implies a current
 risk premium of 3.4%, which excludes rental growth.  However, with rental (ERV)
 growth running at over 3% per annum for the last 18 months, this implies a full
 risk premium of 6% plus, which is well ahead of the long-term average.

  

 As some of the fear  in market prospects is  replaced by confidence, this  risk
 premium should  reduce,  which again  provides  greater upside  potential  than
 downside.  Against this setting,  timing appears to be  optimal for securing  a
 high, fully covered dividend with upside potential on both income and capital. 
 It is our strong contention that with the benefit of hindsight in three to five
 years’ time, 2025 is unlikely to be viewed  as a poor entry point into UK  real
 estate.

  

 Asset management

  

 Custodian Capital, the Investment Manager, has remained focused on active asset
 management during the Quarter,  completing eight rent  reviews at an  aggregate
 19% increase  in  annual  rent,  along with  letting  eight  vacant  units  and
 completing 10  further new  lettings, lease  renewals and  lease regears,  with
 rental levels remaining affordable to  our occupiers.  These initiatives had  a
 positive impact on weighted average unexpired lease term, which only  decreased
 by 0.1 years to 4.8 years during the Quarter (30 Sept 24: 4.9 years).

  

 Details of these asset management initiatives are shown below:

  

 Rent reviews

  

 The following rent reviews were settled in the Quarter, in aggregate increasing
 rent by 19%, and comprising:

   • Applying fixed rental uplifts  across six industrial  units let to  Menzies
     Distribution, increasing annual rent by 13% to £1.4m;
   • Increasing the passing rent at an industrial unit in Kettering by 78%  from
     £128k to £227k; and
   • Increasing the passing  rent at a  retail unit in  Dunfermline by 10%  from
     £20k to £22k.

  

 Renewals

  

 10 lease renewals/regears across retail, retail warehouse and industrial assets
 in aggregate maintaining passing rent levels, comprising:

  

   • Five-year reversionary lease to YESSS  Electrical at an industrial unit  in
     Normanton, maintaining annual rent at £449k;
   • Removal of a tenant break option  with DS Smith in Redditch, extending  the
     lease by five years in return for  six months’ rent free, with annual  rent
     remaining £404k;
   • Two-year reversionary  lease to  global  consumer brands  owner URBN  at  a
     retail unit in Southampton, maintaining annual rent of £195k;
   • Five-year  lease  renewal  with  Magnet  at  a  retail  warehouse  unit  in
     Gloucester, with annual rent remaining £116k;
   • 10-year new lease to  Telefonica (t/a O2) at  a retail unit in  Shrewsbury,
     with a tenant break option on the fifth anniversary, increasing annual rent
     on the unit by 38% to £73k;
   • 10-year lease to RTV Worldnet Shipping  at an industrial unit in  Aberdeen,
     with annual rent increasing by 33% to £48k;
   • Five-year lease renewal  with Der Touristik  at a retail  unit in  Chester,
     with annual rent decreasing 42% to £41k line in with ERV;
   • Removal of a tenant break option with  Your Phone Care at a retail unit  in
     Portsmouth, extending the lease by five years, with annual rent  decreasing
     13% to £40k;
   • Five-year lease extension with Mobile  Care Services at an industrial  unit
     in Atherstone with annual rent increasing by 69% to £23k; and
   • 10-year lease renewal with  Greggs at a retail  unit in Birmingham, with  a
     tenant break option on the fifth anniversary, at an annual rent of £19k.

  

 Vacant premises

  

 £0.7m of new annual rental  income was added to  the rent roll through  letting
 eight vacant units in line with ERV in aggregate:

  

   • Five new leases  with Elizabeth  School of  London at  a newly  refurbished
     office building in  Manchester for a  term of  12 years with  a year  seven
     tenant only break option, at an aggregate annual rent of £596k;
   • A 10-year lease to Katani & Co at an office suite in Glasgow, with a tenant
     break option in the fifth year, at an annual rent of £58k;
   • A 10-year lease to MST Invest at a retail unit in Liverpool, with a  tenant
     break option on the fifth anniversary, at an annual rent of £45k; and
   • A five-year lease to  Igneus UK at  an office unit  in Birmingham, with  an
     annual rent of £43k.

  

 The impact  of this  positive  letting activity  has  been tempered  since  the
 Quarter end with an  industrial asset in Biggleswade  and offices in  Sheffield
 falling vacant, in aggregate representing  1.6% (£0.8m) of portfolio ERV.   The
 asset in Biggleswade will now be refurbished with rents expected to increase by
 c. 40% once re-let.

  

 Disposals

  

 During the Quarter, a recently vacant  office building in Solihull was sold  to
 an owner occupier for £1.4m, 33% ahead of the 30 June 2024 valuation.

  

 Circa £8m of office and retail assets  are either under offer to sell or  being
 actively marketed, with proceeds expected to  be used to pay down the  variable
 rate RCF or fund earnings accretive capital expenditure.

  

 Borrowings

  

 During the Quarter, the Company and Lloyds Bank plc (“Lloyds”) agreed to extend
 the term of the RCF by one year to expire in 2027.  An option remains in  place
 to extend the term by a further year to 2028, subject to Lloyds’ consent.

  

 At 31 December  2024 the  Company had  £171.0m of  debt drawn  at an  aggregate
 weighted average cost of 3.9% (30 Sept 24: 4.0%) diversified across a range  of
 lenders.  This debt comprised:

  

   • £31m (18%) at a  variable prevailing interest rate  of 6.3% and a  facility
     maturity of 2.9 years; and
   • £140m (82%)  at a  weighted average  fixed  rate of  3.4% with  a  weighted
     average maturity of 5.2 years. 

  

 At 31 December 2024 the Company’s borrowing facilities were:

  

 Variable rate borrowing

  

   • A £50m  RCF with  Lloyds with  interest of  between 1.62%  and 1.92%  above
     SONIA, determined by reference  to the prevailing LTV  ratio of a  discrete
     security pool  of  assets,  and  now expiring  on  10 November  2027.   The
     facility limit can be increased to £75m with Lloyds’ approval. 

  

 Fixed rate borrowing

  

   • A  £20m  term   loan  with  Scottish   Widows plc  (“SWIP”)  repayable   on
     13 August 2025 with interest fixed at 3.935%;
   • A £45m term loan with SWIP repayable on 5 June 2028 with interest fixed  at
     2.987%; and

   • A £75m term loan with Aviva comprising:

        ▪ A £35m tranche repayable on 6 April 2032 with fixed annual interest of
          3.02%;
        ▪ A £25m tranche repayable on 3 November 2032 with fixed annual interest
          of 4.10%; and
        ▪ A £15m tranche repayable on 3 November 2032 with fixed annual interest
          of 3.26%.

  

 Each facility has a discrete security  pool, comprising a number of  individual
 properties, over which the relevant lender has security and covenants:

  

   • The maximum LTV of the discrete security  pools is either 45% or 50%,  with
     an overarching covenant on  the property portfolio of  a maximum of 35%  or
     40% LTV; and
   • Historical interest cover, requiring net rental receipts from the  discrete
     security pools, over the preceding three  months, to exceed either 200%  or
     250% of the associated facility’s quarterly interest liability.

  

 Upcoming expiry

  

 Despite persistent inflationary pressures, multiple UK base rate decreases  are
 expected during 2025 12  12 .  The Board  intends to utilise the Company’s  RCF
 to repay the £20m fixed  rate loan with SWIP due  to expire in August 2025  and
 will consider longer-term options once debt markets are more stable.

  

 Portfolio analysis

  

 At 31  December 2024,  the  portfolio was  split  between the  main  commercial
 property sectors, in line with the  Company’s objective to maintain a  suitably
 balanced investment portfolio.  Sector weightings are shown below:

                      31 Dec 2024                               30 Sept 2024
                                                                                
                                           Quarter          
               Val’n                     valuation                              
                                          movement   Quarter
                  £m Weighting Weighting           valuation Weighting Weighting
                      by value by income        £m  movement  by value by income
 Sector
                                                                                
 Industrial    290.5       49%       41%       1.6      0.8%       49%       41%
 Retail        126.2       22%       22%       1.2      0.9%       22%       22%
 warehouse
 Other 13  13   77.6       13%       14%       0.4      0.5%       13%       14%
 Office         58.7       10%       16%     (0.7)    (1.2%)       10%       16%
 High street    33.4        6%        7%       0.5      1.7%        6%        7%
 retail
                                                                                
 Total         586.4      100%      100%       3.0                100%      100%

  

 For   details   of    all   properties    in   the    portfolio   please    see
  14 custodianreit.com/property-portfolio.

  

                                    - Ends -

  

 Further information:

  

 Further information regarding the Company can be found at the Company's website
  15 custodianreit.com or please contact:

  

 Custodian Capital Limited                                              
 Richard Shepherd-Cross – Managing Director

 Ed Moore – Finance Director                    Tel: +44 (0)116 240 8740

 Ian Mattioli MBE DL – Chairman
                                             16 www.custodiancapital.com

  

 Numis Securities Limited                             
 Hugh Jonathan / George Shiel Tel: +44 (0)20 7260 1000
                                   www.numis.com/funds

  

 FTI Consulting                                                                 
 Richard Sunderland / Ellie Sweeney / Andrew            Tel: +44 (0)20 3727 1000
 Davis / Oliver Parsons
                                              17 custodianreit@fticonsulting.com

  

 Notes to Editors

  

 Custodian Property Income REIT plc is a UK real estate investment trust,  which
 listed on the main market  of the London Stock Exchange  on 26 March 2014.  Its
 portfolio comprises properties predominantly let to institutional grade tenants
 throughout the  UK  and  is principally  characterised  by  smaller,  regional,
 core/core-plus properties. 

  

 The Company offers investors the opportunity to access a diversified  portfolio
 of UK  commercial real  estate  through a  closed-ended fund.   By  principally
 targeting smaller, regional,  core/core-plus properties, the  Company seeks  to
 provide investors with  an attractive level  of income with  the potential  for
 capital growth.

  

 Custodian Capital  Limited  is  the discretionary  investment  manager  of  the
 Company.

  

 For more information visit  18 custodianreit.com and  19 custodiancapital.com.

 ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════

  20  1  Profit after tax excluding net gains or losses on property divided by
 weighted average number of shares in issue as defined by the European Public
 Real Estate Association.

  21  2  Prospective target dividend divided by share price.

  22  3  Price on 4 February 2025.  Source: London Stock Exchange.

  23  4  Adjusting for property acquisitions, disposals and capital expenditure.

  24  5  ERV of let property divided by total portfolio ERV.

  25  6  NAV per share movement including dividends paid during the Quarter.

  26  7  Gross borrowings less cash (excluding rent deposits) divided by
 portfolio valuation.

  27  8  Annualised cash rents adjusted for the expiration of lease incentives
 (rent free periods, discounted rent periods and stepped rents), less estimated
 non-recoverable property operating expenses, divided by property valuation plus
 estimated purchaser’s costs.

  28  9  Source:  29 L&G Research.

  30  10  Current yields plus growth expectations less depreciation and gilt
 yields.

  31  11  Source: FT.com.

  32  12  Source:  33 City AM.

  34  13  Comprises drive-through  restaurants, car  showrooms, trade  counters,
 gymnasiums, restaurants and leisure units.

  

 ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════

 Dissemination of a Regulatory Announcement that contains inside information in
 accordance with the Market Abuse Regulation (MAR), transmitted by EQS Group.
 The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this announcement.

 ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════

   ISIN:           GB00BJFLFT45
   Category Code:  MSCH
   TIDM:           CREI
   LEI Code:       2138001BOD1J5XK1CX76
   OAM Categories: 3.1. Additional regulated information required to be
                   disclosed under the laws of a Member State
   Sequence No.:   374723
   EQS News ID:    2081121


    
   End of Announcement EQS News Service

   ══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════

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  17. mailto:custodianreit@fticonsulting.com
  18. https://eqs-cockpit.com/cgi-bin/fncls.ssp?fn=redirect&url=44eae66ce326b2005a19503bbab5faed&application_id=2081121&site_id=refinitiv~~~790ea929-3c21-49b8-8ff9-1aed464daef1&application_name=news
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  20. file:///data/ucdp/tmp/xhtmlconvert_parsn_eqs_ILZiouyz.html#_ftnref1
  21. file:///data/ucdp/tmp/xhtmlconvert_parsn_eqs_ILZiouyz.html#_ftnref2
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  27. file:///data/ucdp/tmp/xhtmlconvert_parsn_eqs_ILZiouyz.html#_ftnref8
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  30. file:///data/ucdp/tmp/xhtmlconvert_parsn_eqs_ILZiouyz.html#_ftnref10
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