What to Watch in the Week Ahead and on Monday, December 2

Dollarama

29/11/2024 17:38

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ON MONDAY
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) is expected to report that U.S.
manufacturing activity likely rose to 47.5 in November from 46.5 in October.
Additionally, S&P Global will also release their manufacturing final PMI numbers
for November. Separately, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau is scheduled
to release monthly construction spending figures that probably gained 0.1% in
October after a similar reading in September.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller is scheduled to speak on the economic outlook
before the American Institute for Economic Research Monetary Conference,
"Building a Better Fed Framework," (1515 /2015). On the same day, NY Fed
President John Williams is slated to participate in a conversation organized by
the Queens Chamber of Commerce (1630 /2130). 

The U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration will hold a preliminary hearing
regarding the proposed rescheduling of marijuana. The hearing was initially
expected to include extensive witness testimony, but that aspect has been
delayed until 2025.

Canada's S&P Global manufacturing PMI numbers for November is slated for
release. The country’s manufacturing activity rose to 51.1 in October from 50.4
in September, its highest level since February 2023.

From Latin America, Brazil's and Mexico's S&P Global manufacturing PMI numbers
are on the radar. Chile's central bank is schedule to release the country's
IMACEC economic activity index figures for October.

    
REST OF THE WEEK
On Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will participate in a moderated discussion
before the New York Times DealBook Summit (1345/1845). A raft of other Fed
officials is also due to speak during the week. On Tuesday, Fed Board Governor
Adriana Kugler will speak on "Labor Market and Monetary Policy" before the
Detroit Economic Club (1235/1735). Separately, Chicago Fed President Austan
Goolsbee will give closing remarks before the hybrid Midwest Agriculture
Conference, "The Changing Landscape for Agricultural Inputs," (1545 /2045). On
Wednesday, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem will
speak on the U.S. economy and monetary policy before the Global Interdependence
Center College of Central Bankers Symposium (0845/1345). On Thursday, Richmond
Fed President Thomas Barkin is scheduled to speak before in person Charlotte
Regional Business Alliance 2024 Economic Outlook event (1130 /1630). On Friday,
Fed Board Governor Michelle Bowman is slated to participate virtually in
discussion before the Missouri Bankers Association Executive Management
Conference (0915 /1415). Separately, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will
participate in a  fireside chat before the hybrid 38th Annual Economic Outlook
Symposium (1030 /1530). Additionally, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack will
speak on the economic outlook before the City Club of Cleveland Friday Forum
(1200/1700). Separately, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly may participate
in the "Emerging Technology and the Economy" conversation hosted by the Hoover
Institution, (1300 /1800).
    
A week filled with significant data lies ahead for the U.S. with a focus on the
labor market. On Friday, the Labor Department's employment report is expected to
show that non-farm payrolls in November increased by 190,000 jobs after a growth
of 12,000 jobs in October. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to rise
4.2% in November from 4.1% in October. Private payrolls probably climbed by
200,000 jobs, after falling 28,000 jobs in October. On Tuesday, Job Openings and
Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS report, is expected to show 7.298 million job
openings in October from 7.443 million in September. On Wednesday, the ADP
national employment report is expected to show that private employment likely
grew by 150,000 jobs in November after advancing by 233,000 jobs in the month
before. Furthermore, on Thursday, initial jobless claims for the week ending
November 30 are forecast to rise to 215,000 up from 213,000 the previous week.
Apart from employment data, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) is
expected to report that the country's non-manufacturing PMI likely inched down
to 55.6 in November from 56.0 in the prior month. Additionally, S&P Global
composite and services final PMI data for October are also due on Wednesday. On
the same day, the Commerce Department is expected to report that monthly factory
orders likely rose 0.2% in October after falling 0.5% in September. The
department, on Thursday, is also likely to post that the country's international
trade deficit narrowed to $74.7 billion in October from $84.4 billion in
September. Additionally, consumer credit data on Friday is expected to show
borrowing rose by $10 billion in October after increasing by $6 billion in
September.

On Tuesday, Salesforce is expected to report its slowest third-quarter revenue
growth in more than a decade as it faces softer spending in its traditional
cloud business and stiff competition from rivals.

UnitedHealth Group's leadership will host an investor day conference on
Wednesday expanding on the company's 2025 outlook and strategy.

On Tuesday, executives at global grains merchant and crop processor
Archer-Daniels-Midland are hosting a conference call with analysts to discuss
their delayed third-quarter results, which were released on Nov 18 after the
company secured an extension from the SEC. The company restated its financial
statements for 2023 and the first two quarters of 2024 after finding more
accounting irregularities similar to those that prompted ADM to part ways with
its chief financial officer in September.

Dollar store operator Dollarama is expected to report a rise in third-quarter
revenue on Wednesday, helped by resilient demand for its affordable grocery and
essentials offerings. Investors will look out for comments on annual forecasts,
cost-saving efforts, and holiday sales.

Jack Daniel's maker Brown-Forman is expected to report a decline in
second-quarter revenue on Thursday, hurt by weak demand for premium spirits,
including whisky and tequila. Investors will look out for comments on annual
forecasts, and efforts to cut costs and boost demand.
    
On Wednesday, Royal Bank of Canada's fourth-quarter profit is expected to rise
as Canada's biggest bank benefits from its HSBC Canada acquisition and strong
capital markets. Separately, Toronto-Dominion Bank's fourth-quarter earnings are
expected to be impacted by its U.S. anti-money laundering issues on Thursday.
Investors will closely watch for the bank's progress on its U.S. business's
balance sheet restructuring plan.

On Thursday, Canada's leading index for November is set for release along with
the country's trade balance data for October. On the same day, the Ivey
Purchasing Managers Index for October is also expected. On Friday, Canada's
employment change data is on the radar.

From the Latin American economic diary, on Tuesday, Brazil's statistics agency
IBGE is scheduled to post the country's gross domestic product (GDP) for the
third quarter. Additionally, the nation's IPC-FIPE inflation index for September
is also on the radar on Tuesday, while industrial output figures for October are
due on Wednesday. S&P Global will release November composite and services PMI
figures for the country on Wednesday. Separately, Brazil's trade balance data is
set for release on Thursday. On Friday, both Brazil and Chile are scheduled to
report their inflation figures for November. Additionally, Argentina's
statistics agency, INDEC, is scheduled to release its industrial output figures
for October on Friday.

 (Compiled by Ashitha Salus; Editing by Tasim Zahid)