China CO2 emissions to peak in 2022, ahead of schedule -govt researcher

Dynasty Digital Holdings

05/09/2019 12:56

By David Stanway
    FUXIAN LAKE, China, Sept 5 (Reuters) - China's emissions of
climate-warming greenhouse gases are likely to peak by 2022 even
without the introduction of tougher policies, well ahead of an
original target of "around" 2030, a senior government researcher
said on Thursday.
    China's pledge to bring emissions to a peak by "around 2030"
was a key component of a global pact to tackle climate change
drawn up in Paris in 2015. 
    Beijing has since promised to show "the highest possible
ambition" when reviewing its targets, and a government think
tank has urged Beijing to introduce stricter measures for its
next 2021-2025 "five-year plan".  urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL4N25A1QI
    But Jiang Kejun, research professor with the Energy Research
Institute, a unit of the National Development and Reform
Commission (NDRC), China's top planning body, said he had
"extreme confidence" in Beijing's ability to bring emissions to
a peak by 2022 on just a "business as usual" trajectory.
    "China already has very strong policies and for me, just
continuing to do that could be enough," he told Reuters on the
sidelines of the Fortune Sustainability Forum at the Fuxian Lake
in the southwestern province of Yunnan.  
    Any change in the official targets of the world's biggest
CO2 emitter is likely to have big implications for the global
fight against climate change, but Chinese government officials
have remained cautious about revising their forecasts. 
    Li Gao, head of the climate department at the environment
ministry, warned last week that the 2030 target was already at
risk from the trade war with the United States.  urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL3N25Q1CQ
    After slowing from 2014 to 2016, China's total carbon
emissions are believed to have rebounded starting from 2017. 
    According to estimates published on Thursday by Lauri
Myllyvirta, senior energy analyst with environmental group
Greenpeace, emissions rose by as much as 4% in the first half of
this year, driven by rising coal, steel and cement consumption. 
    One major concern has been the rebound in coal consumption
and the possible approval of new coal-fired power projects, with
officials now debating whether more capacity is required to meet
future electricity shortages, said Yang Fuqiang, senior adviser
with the Natural Resources Defense Council, a U.S.-based
environmental group. 
    An industry group has forecast China's coal-fired capacity
to peak at 1,300 gigawatts (GW), an increase of nearly 300 GW
compared to the end of last year.  urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL3N21D0KE
    Eric Luo, chief executive of Chinese renewable energy
manufacturer GCL, said it was unlikely another 300 GW would be
necessary, adding that a 2022 peak in carbon emissions was
plausible.
    "After 2022, coal emissions should slow down, with the
number of new coal plants falling," he told Reuters. "Even if
they have approved another 200GW... it doesn't make sense to
build so much."  

 (Reporting by David Stanway; Editing by Susan Fenton)
 ((david.stanway@thomsonreuters.com; +86 21 2083 0066; Reuters
Messaging: david.stanway.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))