JPM sees shareholder returns upside for Nordic telecoms, prefers Swedish names

Elisa Oyj

27/03/2026 12:13

** J.P.Morgan sees shareholder return upside across the Nordic telecommunications sector as free cash flows cover dividends and leverage falls below company target ranges

** It notes that all Nordic operators raised their dividend payments, and forecasts high-single-digit Total Shareholder Return (TRS) yield in 2027

** In its upside scenario, JPM models 2030 TSR yields for Telenor TEL.OL at 11%, Telia TELIA.ST at 11%, Tele2 TEL2b.ST at 13% and Elisa ELISA.HE at 10%

* It keeps an "overweight" rating on Telia TELIA.ST and Tele2 TEL2b.ST as they screen attractive with high shareholder return yield potential

** Norwegian Telenor carries both upside and downside TSR risks depending on future mergers and acquisitions, the brokerage says, and hence keeps it at "neutral"

** It expects Finnish operator Elisa to remain prudent on distributions, and says it no longer looks attractive on core earnings growth compared to its peers

** It downgrades the stock to "underweight" from "neutral," noting a vulnerable Finnish market where operators aggressively defend market share, potentially leading to downward pressure on pricing

 (Reporting by Marta Frackowiak)

 ((marta.frackowiak@thomsonreuters.com))