US natgas prices settle lower on forecasts for milder weather, lower demand (updated)

Enbridge

12/10/2026 19:53

Daily gas output seen at four-month low
Daily gas flows to LNG export plants seen at five-month high
Spot gas prices in Pennsylvania fall to lowest since November 2020
Adds latest prices
By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, Oct 12 (Reuters) - US natural gas futures settled down by about 2% on Monday on forecasts for milder weather and less demand next week than previously expected.
Limiting losses was a continued drop in daily output to a four-month low and an increase in daily gas flows to liquefied natural gas export plants to a five-month high.
Front-month gas futures for November delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) fell 5.3 cents, or 1.6%, to settle at $3.167 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Friday, the contract closed at its highest since September 24.
Gas futures were on track to rise for a third straight montyhly rise. Last week, speculators boosted their net short futures and options positions on the NYMEX and Intercontinental Exchange to the highest levels since February 2024, according to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Commitments of Traders report.
In the spot market, mild weather and pipeline issues trapping some gas in the US Northeast region helped pressure next-day prices at the Enbridge South hub NG-PCN-APP-SNL in southwest Pennsylvania down to around 61 cents per mmBtu, their lowest since November 2020.
     
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the US Lower 48 states slid from record highs of 113.3 bcfd in August and September to 110.7 bcfd so far in October due to a combination of Hurricane Isaias production shut-ins and force majeure incidents and other problems on pipelines in Kentucky, Texas, West Virginia and elsewhere over the past month or so.
On a daily basis, LSEG said output was on track to drop to a four-month low of around 108.9 bcfd on Monday even as production slowly returns in the Gulf of Mexico after Isaias.
The US Marine Minerals Administration, which oversees development of offshore energy, said about 25% or 0.5 bcfd of offshore Gulf of Mexico gas was still shut-in on Monday, down from a peak of 59% or 1.3 bcfd shut-in on October 9 when Isaias crashed into the Florida Panhandle.
With seasonally colder weather coming, LSEG said average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, will rise from 104.8 bcfd this week to 107.4 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Friday.
     
LNG EXPORTS
Average gas flows to the nine major US LNG export plants fell to 17.4 bcfd so far in October, down from 17.9 bcfd in September and a monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April.
On a daily basis,  however, output was on track to rise to a five-month high of 18.8 bcfd on Monday with the return to near full service of Freeport LNG's 2.4-bcfd plant in Texas around October 9 and Berkshire Hathaway Energy's 0.8-bcfd Cove Point in Maryland around October 12.
     
 
Week ended Oct 9 Forecast
Week ended  Oct 2 Actual
Year ago Oct 9
Five-year average (2021-2025) Oct 9
 
 
US weekly natgas storage change (bcf):
+77
+85
+80
+90
 
US total natgas in storage (bcf):
3,577
3,500
3,710
3,522
 
US total storage versus 5-year average
+1.6%
+2.0%
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NGc1
3.14
3.22
3.35
3.62
3.79
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1
27.23
26.59
10.88
11.94
18.51
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1
25.98
25.96
11.11
12.24
18.12
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
LSEG US Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days 
 
 
 
 
 
Total Two-Week Forecast
Current Day
Prior Day
Prior Year
10-Year Norm
30-Year Norm
US GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)
114
108
116
128
143
US GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)
57
62
44
47
35
US GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)
171
170
160
175
178
 
 
 
 
 
 
LSEG US Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts, and US Energy Information Administration (EIA) Monthly and Annual Pipeline Imports and Exports
 
 
 
 
 
 
Prior Week
Current Week
Next Week
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
US Supply (bcfd)
 
 
 
 
 
US Lower 48 Dry Production
111.1
109.5
110.6
106.5
106.8
US Imports from Canada
7.0
7.0
7.3
7.5
8.6
US LNG Imports
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Total US Supply
118.1
116.5
117.9
114.0
115.4
 
 
 
 
 
 
US Demand (bcfd)
 
 
 
 
 
US Exports to Canada
2.2
2.1
2.0
2.5
2.8
US Exports to Mexico
7.5
7.2
7.5
6.5
6.6
US LNG Export Feedgas
17.0
18.6
18.9
16.6
16.0
US Commercial
5.8
6.2
8.1
6.7
9.4
US Residential
5.1
5.3
8.6
7.5
13.4
US Power Plant
38.7
35.1
31.5
33.4
36.0
US Industrial
22.4
22.3
23.2
22.7
23.5
US Plant Fuel
5.5
5.4
5.5
5.6
5.6
US Pipe Distribution
2.1
2.0
2.1
3.0
3.5
US Vehicle Fuel
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
Total US Consumption
79.8
76.4
79.0
79.1
91.6
Total US Demand
106.5
104.3
107.4
104.7
117.0
 
 
 
 
 
 
N/A = Not Available
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
US Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (fiscal year ending September 30)
2027 Current Day % of Normal Forecast
2027  Prior Day % of Normal Forecast
2026 % of Normal Actual
2025 % of Normal Actual
2024 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep 
92
93
83
76
74
Jan-Jul
86
88
90
78
76
Oct-Sep
86
89
93
80
77
 
 
 
 
 
 
US weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
 
 
 
 
 
 
Week ended Oct 16
Week ended Oct 9
2025
2024
2023
Wind
17
8
11
11
10
Solar
7
8
6
5
4
Hydro
4
5
6
6
6
Other
2
2
1
1
2
Petroleum
0
0
0
0
0
Natural Gas
37
44
40
42
41
Coal
15
16
18
16
17
Nuclear
19
18
18
19
19
 
 
 
 
 
 
SNL US Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
 
 
 
 
 
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
3.10
3.24
3.19
3.52
3.72
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
0.88
0.88
2.26
3.53
3.56
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
3.56
3.69
3.58
3.42
5.47
Enbridge South (formerly Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL
0.61
0.88
2.12
2.79
2.96
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
2.44
2.63
2.92
3.23
3.60
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
1.17
0.84
2.51
6.08
5.04
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
3.20
4.09
3.22
3.60
5.71
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
1.89
1.86
0.00
1.03
2.88
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL
1.24
1.00
0.95
1.13
2.13
 
 
 
 
 
 
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) US Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
 
 
 
 
 
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2025
Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX
36.00
36.00
44.36
77.12
61.67
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX
123.96
81.28
57.52
60.23
54.47
Mid-Columbia (Mid C) W-MIDCP-IDX
48.36
34.25
45.49
44.81
68.96
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX
25.83
31.70
26.78
34.82
59.94
South Path-15 (SP-15) W-SP15-IDX
36.26
41.04
27.16
28.44
53.02

 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino;
Editing by Alison Williams and David Gregorio)
 ((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))