US natgas prices edge up to 7-month high on lower output, rising exports (updated)
04/10/2023 20:14
(Adds latest prices)
Oct 4 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged up less than 1% to a seven-month high on Wednesday on lower output and
rising exports.
That price gain was limited by a 6% drop in oil prices CLc1 LCOc1 and forecasts for the weather to remain milder than
usual for the next two weeks, keeping both heating and cooling demand low.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 1.3 cents, or 0.4%, to
settle at $2.962 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since March 3.
Oil prices, meanwhile, tumbled by about 6% following reports that Russia may lift its diesel ban in coming days and U.S.
government data that indicated weak demand for gasoline.
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the lower 48 U.S. states slid to 102.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far
in October, down from 102.9 bcfd in September and a monthly record high of 103.1 bcfd in August.
In pipeline news, U.S. energy company Equitrans Midstream ETRN.N said the 2.0-bcfd
Mountain Valley
gas pipe from West Virginia to Virginia remained on track to enter service by the end of the year at an estimated cost of
$6.6 billion after Mountain Valley entered into an agreement with U.S. pipeline safety regulators to identify and fix any
potential corrosion or other issues with the pipe.
Meteorologists forecast the weather in the lower 48 states would remain mostly warmer than normal through Oct. 19.
LSEG forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would hold near 95.1 bcfd this week and next. Those forecasts were similar
to LSEG's outlook on Tuesday.
RISING EXPORTS
Pipeline exports to Mexico rose to an average of 7.3 bcfd so far in October, up from a record 7.2 bcfd in September, according
to LSEG data.
Analysts expect exports to Mexico to rise even higher in coming months once New Fortress Energy's NFE.O plant in Altamira
starts pulling in U.S. gas to turn into liquefied natural gas (LNG) for export.
Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants held around 12.6 bcfd so far in October, the same as in September. That
compares with a monthly record of 14.0 bcfd in April.
Energy traders said they expected Berkshire Hathaway Energy's 0.8-bcfd Cove Point facility in Maryland to exit a maintenance
outage over the next week or so based in part on company notices to customers that some pipeline work was expected to be completed
on Oct. 4. Cove Point shut around Sept. 20. Analysts at LSEG have said the plant usually shuts for about three weeks of
maintenance each autumn.
The U.S. is on track to become the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, ahead of recent leaders Australia and Qatar. Much
higher global prices have fed demand for U.S. exports due to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to the war in Ukraine.
Gas was trading around $12 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe TRNLTTFMc1 and $14 at
the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) in Asia JKMc1 . NG/EU
Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year
Sep 29 Sep 22 Sep 29 average
Forecast Actual Sep 29
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): 92 90 126 103
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 3,451 3,359 3,088 3,273
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average 5.4% 6.0%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year
Last Year Average Average
2022 (2017-2021)
Henry Hub NGc1 2.98 2.95 6.08 6.54 2.89
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 11.61 11.52 38.37 40.50 7.49
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 14.25 14.40 32.98 34.11 8.95
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year
Norm Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs 82 71 91 84 106
U.S. GFS CDDs 70 71 54 70 55
U.S. GFS TDDs 152 142 145 154 161
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week Current Next Week This Week Five-Year
Week Last Year Average For
Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production 102.6 102.4 102.4 100.4 93.1
U.S. Imports from Canada 6.8 6.7 6.9 8.6 7.8
U.S. LNG Imports 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
Total U.S. Supply 109.4 109.1 109.2 109.0 101.0
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada 1.7 1.6 1.6 2.2 2.2
U.S. Exports to Mexico 7.3 7.2 7.2 5.5 5.6
U.S. LNG Exports 12.1 12.7 12.8 10.4 7.1
U.S. Commercial 4.9 5.0 6.1 5.8 7.0
U.S. Residential 4.0 4.2 6.3 5.9 7.5
U.S. Power Plant 37.0 35.7 31.8 32.0 30.1
U.S. Industrial 21.6 21.6 22.1 21.6 22.1
U.S. Plant Fuel 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1
U.S. Pipe Distribution 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
U.S. Vehicle Fuel 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Total U.S. Consumption 74.7 73.7 73.4 72.5 73.9
Total U.S. Demand 95.8 95.1 95.0 90.6 88.8
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam Current Day Prior Day 2023 2022 2021
% of Normal % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal % of Normal
Forecast Forecast Actual Actual Actual
Apr-Sep 96 96 83 107 81
Jan-Jul 92 93 77 102 79
Oct-Sep 95 96 76 103 81
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended
Oct 6 Sep 29 Sep 22 Sep 15 Sep 8
Wind 12 8 8 5 9
Solar 4 4 4 4 4
Hydro 5 5 5 5 5
Other 2 2 2 2 2
Petroleum 0 0 0 0 0
Natural Gas 41 44 43 46 44
Coal 16 17 17 18 19
Nuclear 19 20 20 19 17
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub Current Day Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL 2.71 2.70
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL 1.32 1.32
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL 4.58 4.94
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL 1.21 1.11
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL 2.42 2.30
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL 1.55 1.50
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL 6.23 5.24
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL 1.97 1.60
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL 1.73 1.76
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub Current Day
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL 33.50 27.50
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL 61.50 60.75
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL 37.50 31.25
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL 50.25 46.51
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL 24.25 25.50
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL 46.50 43.75
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino, Editing by Nick Zieminski and Richard Chang)
((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))
((For gas data on LSEG's Eikon type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Eikon terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET ) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C ))
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