Poll: Forint seen falling as central Europe's currencies face pressure

Erste Bank Polska SA

06/05/2025 14:53

reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/fx-polls?RIC=EURCZK= euro/koruna poll data

reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/fx-polls?RIC=EURPLN= euro/zloty poll data

reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/fx-polls?RIC=EURHUF= euro/forint poll data

reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/fx-polls?RIC=EURRON= euro/leu poll data

reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/fx-polls?RIC=EURRSD= euro/Serbian dinar poll data

By Jason Hovet

PRAGUE, May 6 (Reuters) - Central Europe's currencies are likely to fall or tread water in the coming months as they face economic and market headwinds, with the Hungarian forint expected to lose around 2% in the next half-year, according to a Reuters poll published on Tuesday.

After a month of being buffeted by global market turmoil due to U.S. tariffs and rising risks of global trade wars, the region's currencies have mostly rebounded, but still face risks.

In Hungary's case, the economic impact of tariffs and fiscal risks in the run-up to domestic elections next year are set to knock the forint, analysts said.

The median forecast in the poll puts the forint EURHUF= at 411.67 to the euro in six months, down 2.0% from Monday's close.

The forint hit a more than five-month high beyond 400 in March before market turmoil last month pushed it to as low as 410.

"We continue to see the forint on the weaker side in the months to come, given disappointing economic results, the possible negative impact of tariffs and the high fiscal deficit," Santander bank said.

Forint weakness has kept the Hungarian central bank's interest rate policy on hold as it faces renewed inflationary pressures.

In Poland, the central bank is expected to cut rates for the first time since 2023 on Wednesday. Its dovish turn has hurt the zloty, which fell to a 4-1/2 month low of 4.3095 per euro last month.

It closed at 4.26 per euro on Monday and the poll saw it at that level in six months' time after some slight firming before then.

"Some of the previous monetary policy-induced tailwinds for the zloty are likely to fade over the coming months," Danske Bank said.

Likewise, the Czech crown should ease around 0.4% in the coming half-year, less than peers, with some analysts saying economic growth will likely outperform the euro zone. The Czech central bank has also been cautious in its easing cycle, in place since 2023, signalling it may be near an end.

Romania's leu EURRON= is forecast to trade at 5.035 to the euro in six months, according to the poll, which was largely conducted before sharp falls seen in the usually stable currency on Tuesday.

Romanian markets have been hit hard after the first round of a presidential election on Sunday that saw George Simion, the hard-right eurosceptic opposition leader, as the leading vote-getter, triggering the collapse of a pro-Western coalition government.

The leu, tightly-controlled by the central bank, fell to as low as 5.10 per euro on Tuesday.

"We think that 5.10 is the new line in the sand for the NBR (National Bank of Romania)," Erste Group Bank said. "Strong FX pass-through to inflation and the important role played by the EUR/RON for consumer confidence should limit further abrupt depreciation of the RON in the short-term."

On Tuesday, JP Morgan recommended going long on the euro versus the leu in FX spot markets, with Romania's intervention policy seemingly shifting.

(Other stories from the Reuters May foreign exchange poll)

 (Reporting by Jason Hovet in Prague, Polling by Jaiganesh Mahesh and Indradip Ghosh. Editing by Mark Potter)

 ((jason.hovet@thomsonreuters.com;))