World must triple clean energy investment by 2030 to curb climate change -IEA

Fossil

13/10/2021 05:00

* Clean energy investment needs to triple by 2030
    * Post-pandemic coal, oil rebound fuels historic CO2 rise
    * Renewables will help reach net zero, fight volatility
    * COP26 conference needs to send "unmistakeable signal" 

    By Noah Browning
    LONDON, Oct 13 (Reuters) - Investment in renewable energy
needs to triple by the end of the decade if the world hopes to
effectively fight climate change and keep volatile energy
markets under control, the International Energy Agency (IEA)
said on Wednesday.
    "The world is not investing enough to meet its future energy
needs ... transition‐related spending is gradually picking up,
but remains far short of what is required to meet rising demand
for energy services in a sustainable way," the IEA said.
    "Clear signals and direction from policy makers are
essential. If the road ahead is paved only with good intentions,
then it will be a bumpy ride indeed," it added.
    The Paris-based watchdog released its annual World Energy
Outlook early this year to guide the United Nations COP26
climate change conference, now less than a month away.
 urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL8N2R74EM
    It called the Glasgow, Scotland meeting the "first test of
the readiness of countries to submit new and more ambitious
commitments under the 2015 Paris Agreement" and "an opportunity
to provide an 'unmistakeable signal' that accelerates the
transition to clean energy worldwide."
    In recent weeks, power prices surged to record levels as oil
and natural gas prices hit multi-year highs and widespread
energy shortages engulfed Asia, Europe and the United States.
Fossil fuel demand is also recovering as governments ease curbs
to contain the spread of COVID-19.  urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL1N2R00U4 urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL1N2R80UQ
    The IEA warned that renewables like solar, wind and
hydropower along with bioenergy need to form a far bigger share
in the rebound in energy investment after the pandemic.
    Renewables will account for more than two-thirds of
investment in new power capacity this year, the IEA noted, yet a
sizeable gain in coal and oil use have caused the second largest
annual increase in climate change-causing CO2 emissions.
    The IEA said a faster energy transition will better shield
consumers in the future, because a commodity price shock would
drive up costs for households 30% less in its most ambitious Net
Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE) scenario versus in its more
conservative Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS).
    
    STATUS QUO VERSUS NET ZERO
    Still, the leap necessary to make good on pledges in the
2015 Paris Agreement to cap the rise in temperatures to as close
as possible to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial times
remains vast.
    Fossil fuels coal, natural gas and oil made up nearly 80% of
world energy supply in 2020 and renewables just 12%. 
    To keep that rise near 1.5 degrees, the IEA's NZE prediction
envisions those fossil fuels shrinking to just under a quarter
of the mid-century supply mix and renewables skyrocketing to
just over two-thirds.
    If the world stays on its current track outlined by STEPS
scenario, temperatures will jump 2.6 degrees Celsius by 2100.
    The IEA foresees a peak to oil demand in all its scenarios
for the first time, in the mid‐2030s in the STEPS forecast with
a very gradual decline but in the NZE forecast plateauing within
a decade and dropping further by nearly three-quarters by 2050.
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    Doubling down on the agency's starkest warning yet on the
future of fossil fuels that it made in a May report, the IEA
said its NZE picture envisioned lower demand and a rise in low
emissions fuels making new oil and gas fields beyond 2021
unnecessary.  urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL2N2N50GJ
    However, it did say new oil fields would be required in its
two most conservative scenarios and provided tips on mitigating
their climate impact like reducing methane flaring. 
    "Every data point showing the speed of change in energy can
be countered by another showing the stubbornness of the status
quo," the IEA warned.
    "Today's energy system is not capable of meeting these
challenges; a low emissions revolution is long overdue."

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Oil natural gas and coal demand    https://tmsnrt.rs/3oUN9Cn
CO2 emissions    https://tmsnrt.rs/3iR0ZC4
Global median surface temperature rise    https://tmsnrt.rs/3FGioXS
Emissions reductions by 2050    https://tmsnrt.rs/3v6CGVG
Fossil fuel use by scenario    https://tmsnrt.rs/3v60j0z
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 (Reporting by Noah Browning; Editing by David Gregorio)
 ((noah.browning@thomsonreuters.com;))