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Live Markets: All that glitters is rallying again

LIVE MARKETS-All that glitters is rallying again 

U.S. equity index futures slightly green; Nasdaq 100 up ~0.3%

July NFIB Business Optimism 99.8 vs 97.4 last month

Euro STOXX 600 index up ~0.2%

Dollar ~flat; gold, bitcoin, U.S. crude rise slightly

U.S. 10-year Treasury yield slips to ~4.69%

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ALL THAT GLITTERS IS RALLYING AGAIN

Gold and silver are finding their footing again.

After peaking in late January and tumbling into mid-July lows, both metals have staged an impressive comeback. Gold XAU= has climbed nearly 9% so far in August, while silver XAG= has jumped about 13%, making them among the month's strongest performers.

That strength is showing up across the materials sector. Materials .SPLRCM is the best-performing S&P 500 .SPX sector in August, up 6.3%, comfortably ahead of the broader S&P 500's 3.5% gain.

The real winners, though, have been precious-metals miners. The PHLX Gold/Silver Index .XAU has surged more than 20% this month, with Newmont NEM.N and Freeport-McMoRan FCX.N leading the charge among materials stocks.

Gold's technical picture has improved as well. After ending at $3,968.62 on July 16, its lowest close since early November last year, the metal broke out of a basing pattern to the upside last week.

On Tuesday, gold rallied to an intraday high of $4,434.84, bringing it within striking distance of a key resistance line from its January peak. That resistance now sits just below $4,500. Adding to its importance, the 200-day moving average is currently around $4,496, putting both technical hurdles in nearly the same spot. Gold has since pulled back and is trading around $4,395.

One lingering challenge is higher Treasury yields. While the dollar =USD is little changed this month, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield US10YT=RR has climbed toward 4.74%. A move above 4.747% would mark its highest level since January 2025.

The key question now is whether gold's breakout has staying power or if this is simply another counter-trend rally.

If gold fails to overcome resistance, it could give investors in precious-metals miners pause, especially since the rolling 10-week correlation between gold and the gold/silver mining index is a very tight 0.95, with 1.0 representing a perfect positive correlation.

That's why traders are keeping a close eye on the $4,500 area. A decisive break above resistance could provide another tailwind for gold and silver mining stocks, potentially extending the sector's strong August run.

(Terence Gabriel)

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EARLIER ON LIVE MARKETS:

HALF-TIME IN EUROPE: EKING OUT GAINS CLICK HERE

THREE BIG THEMES, GOLDMAN SAYS EACH POSITIVE FOR RISK ASSETS FOR NOW CLICK HERE

IN THE AI ERA, DATA, NOT SCALE, MAY DRIVE M&A CLICK HERE

STOXX FLATLINES AS ENERGY STOCKS RISE, TRAVEL DOWN CLICK HERE

BEFORE THE BELL: EUROPE SET FOR SUBDUED START AS OIL TOPS $89 CLICK HERE

MIDDLE EAST DEADLOCK CLICK HERE


(Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

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