Live Markets: Winners and losers from higher oil prices
30/05/2018 16:28
* European stocks edge higher
* Italy's FTSE MIB bounces back
* Trade worries in focus
LONDON, May 30 - ThaanksWelcome to the home for real-time coverage of European equity
markets brought to you by Reuters stocks reporters and anchored today by Kit Rees. Reach her on
Messenger to share your thoughts on market moves: kit.rees.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net
WINNERS AND LOSERS FROM HIGHER OIL PRICES (1525 GMT)
Chemicals companies are some of the most directly impacted by an increase in crude prices.
UBS analysts drill down (excuse the pun) to figure out who could get a boost, and who's in for a
bruising, from crude's stellar rally.
"We see a rising oil price generally as positive for the chemicals sector," analysts at the
Swiss bank write. Rising oil prices should drive higher volumes in energy industry-facing
companies, and restocking in the chemicals industry generally as customers seek to buy ahead of
chemical price inflation.
Historically there's been no big correlation between the Chemical index's .SX4P overall
performance and Brent Crude over the long term.
But energy industry facing companies including Victrex, Clariant, Novozymes could benefit,
while UBS also mention Arkema, BASF and Covestro.
Facing risks from higher oil, however, are companies that find it tough to pass on inflation
to prices.
"We see global coatings as most at risk here, particularly Akzo Nobel, which is reliant on
retail channels," UBS analysts argue.
Ingredients companies Symrise and Givaudan could feel the strain for similar reasons.
They point to lubricant maker Fuchs Petrolub as particularly likely to be hurt by the price
increase FPEG_p.DE due to 40 percent of its raw materials coming from base oil.
(Helen Reid)
*****
AN ECB DILEMMA: BETWEEN A GERMAN ROCK AND AN ITALIAN HARD PLACE (1427 GMT)
This week's Italian sell-off has prompted numerous strategists to push back their
expectations about when the ECB will put an end to QE and start raising rates.
Given that strong scent of 2012 in the air, it did appear reasonable to expect that the can
of monetary normalisation would be kicked a bit further down the road.
Then German inflation somewhat muddied that picture this morning when it overshot the ECB
target with a 2.2 percent rise in May. urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL5N1T14E0
"Today's inflation data from Germany gives a taste of the increased complications on the
road to taper," note ING economists.
"The still-undecided debate on whether the Eurozone economy is in a soft patch or at the
start of a protracted downswing, the surge in oil prices and latest political developments in
Italy have clearly complicated the ECB’s life," they add.
For ING though, "it increasingly looks as if the big question for the ECB is not when to
stop QE but rather when to signal an extension of QE."
Here's a neat summary of the issue from Frederik Ducrozet, senior economist at Pictet, on
Twitter:
(Julien Ponthus)
*****
BRACE YOURSELVES (1343 GMT)
Notwithstanding your view on how Italy's political woes are going to play out, investors are
bracing themselves for Italian equities to remain volatile - just today we've seen the FTSE MIB
go from positive, to negative and back to positive.
"Investors remain at the mercy of headlines while political tensions remain elevated;
volatility will not ease much in this environment and further price corrections may occur,"
Andrea Iannelli, investment director at Fidelity International, said.
However, with price swings come opportunities.
"While political risk is notoriously difficult to price, valuations now appear a little more
balanced following the underperformance of Italian assets and can offer opportunities to
investors willing to weather the volatility and dig a little deeper into corporate
fundamentals," Iannelli adds.
Talking of opportunities, Fabrizio Quirighetti, CIO and co-head of multi-asset at SYZ Asset
Management, says that the jump in peripheral European yields has been "to some extent overdone".
In fact, Quirighetti says that yesterday morning they added marginally to Spain five-year
government bonds and Portugal 15-year government bonds in our EUR fixed income, adding that
Spain's political uncertainties "just arrived at a bad time".
However, Quirighetti says that they have very low or little exposure to Italian government
bonds.
So perhaps some opportunities remain a little too adventurous for now.
(Kit Rees)
*****
VOLATILITY RISES AS POLITICAL RISK BACK IN THE DRIVING SEAT (1300 GMT)
Volatility on Italy's FTSE MIB index has shot up to its highest premium ever to the
Eurostoxx 50 vol, up by more than 8 percentage points in the last month, Goldman Sachs finds in
a note.
And Italian volatility drove Spanish, French and Europe-wide stock index volatilities up as
well, GS analysts say, noting some "spillover effect". Volatility on the IBEX has lagged Italy
and could catch up given how heavily weighted the Spanish index is towards banks.
"Investor focus has shifted to systemic risk in the euro area again," they note.
What about that volatility gap between the U.S. and Europe?
We've mentioned before that U.S. volatility has stayed higher than Europe's since February's
blowout, which is unusual. Stress in the euro zone has driven that gap to normalise somewhat.
(Helen Reid)
*****
MIDDAY UPDATE: ITALY RISING FROM THE ASHES (1235 GMT)
Italian stocks are extending their gains as Italy embarks on another attempt to form a
government, while banks .FTIT8300 are up 1.8 percent - but still a while away from making up
all of yesterday's losses. The main stock index .FTMIB has however recovered fully from
yesterday's fall, but is still down on the year.
Meanwhile European stocks are just about holding small gains, while France's CAC 40 is
weighed down by Vivendi, falling after it lost French football TV rights. urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL5N1T1222
Germany's DAX is outpacing peers as heavyweight Bayer climbs after winning U.S. approval for
its takeover of Monsanto.
Below you can see that Italy's growth hasn't recovered fully from the financial crisis in
2008, and its stock market has followed suit with lacklustre gains - the start of this year was
an anomaly, and also ended up being pretty short-lived.
Here's our latest on the political developments in Italy: urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL5N1T11MO
And an analysis (in French) about why Italy never fully recovered from the 2008 crisis.
urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL5N1T01DV
As you can see below, the gap between Italy and the rest of the Euro zone in terms of
economic output and stock market performance has never ceased to grow since then.
(Helen Reid, Julien Ponthus and Ritvik Carvalho)
*****
SPANISH POLITICAL RISKS: COULD UTILITIES BE HIT? (1032 GMT)
The political turmoil in Italy has hardly blown over but investors are already looking ahead
to the next potential political flare-up in Europe: the Spanish Prime Minister's vote of no
confidence on Friday.
While Italy was the main focus yesterday, some periphery contagion was evident with Spain's
IBEX also falling nearly as much as the FTSE MIB, and banks Santander and Sabadell dropping
substantially.
On Friday Prime Minister Rajoy faces a no-confidence vote in parliament, and analysts at
UBS have prepared for a potential unseating and new government by looking at opposition parties'
policies and how they might impact utility stocks.
In general the parties support closure of nuclear power generation after 40 years, a step-up
in renewables capacity, and lower regulatory returns, they find.
"Under such a scenario we estimate double-digit EPS risk for the most exposed players:
Endesa, Red Electrica, and Iberdrola," they write (see chart below).
Switching from nuclear to renewable power generation would require construction of wind and
solar, low-cost capacity which could, according to UBS calculations, reduce power prices by over
10 percent over the long term.
All this is of course only if Rajoy loses the vote, paving the way to a snap election.
Here's our latest on developments there:
Spain's Ciudadanos party said it would not support a motion of no-confidence in Prime
Minister Mariano Rajoy due this Friday, making it unlikely the parliamentary vote will succeed
in unseating him. urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL5N1T11XP
(Helen Reid)
*****
"EVERYONE NEEDS TO TAKE A DEEP BREATH..." (0922 GMT)
"..and calm down" - that's the advice from UBS' global chief economist as trading develops
into a picture of (hesitant) relief for Italian stocks.
UBS' Paul Donovan argues bond market moves do not break up monetary unions - bank runs do,
and there's no evidence of these at this point. On top of that, he adds neither Italian parties
nor Italian voters support leaving the Euro, and it's not even certain the two parties would try
to form a government after elections.
Italian stocks did dip to their lowest of the day after League leader Salvini called for a
new vote as soon as possible urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nR1N1SG01S so there is still some tension, but the dominant tone
from analysts and investors today is one of cautious optimism.
"We believe political uncertainty in Italy will remain elevated for quite some time and
Italian asset prices will continue to be under pressure," write Goldman Sachs analysts.
Here's their summary of the Italian parties' current position in the polls, which investors
will be keeping a close eye on as elections loom nearer:
(Helen Reid)
*****
OPENING SNAPSHOT: MILAN AND MADRID IN TENTATIVE REBOUND (0713 GMT)
It's not strong enough to be called a rebound but the bourses of Milan and Madrid have been
trading in positive territory since the open. Volatility is high and not all trading centres are
going north: France's CAC 40 is down 0.6 percent for example and the STOXX 600 is edging down
0.1 percent.
(Julien Ponthus)
*****
ITALY: ARE FEAR INDEXES REALLY TELLING THE WHOLE STORY? (0703 GMT)
The Italian crisis has prompted jumps in U.S. and European volatility indexes but as you can
see on the charts below, they are still well below the peak they reached during the February
sell-off.
The U.S. VIX .VIX and the Euro StOXX 50 volatility .V2TX closed at 17.02 and 20.15
respectively on Tuesday while their record for the year was set at 50.30 and 36.5 on February 6
and February 9.
On Tuesday, Unicredit analysts argued that while the fall back of the VIX since the February
sell-off would theoretically signal "very little concern over future market developments", it
might be misleading.
"The perception of there being a limited amount of risk in global markets derived by the VIX
index is most likely wrong", they wrote, adding that "such metric of risk appetite might be too
specific to characterize the risks global markets are exposed to these days".
(Julien Ponthus)
*****
WHAT WE'RE WATCHING AHEAD OF THE OPEN (0649 GMT)
A rebound of sorts looks to be on the cards for European shares this morning with stocks
futures trading flat to slightly higher, though continuing jitters over Italian politics and
U.S.-China trade relations will keep investors on edge.
With little on the company news front, it’s all about politics with a chance now that Italy
could hold fresh elections as early as July, according to sources. Italy’s benchmark hit its
lowest level since July 2017 in the previous session as Italy’s future in the euro zone was
thrown into question.
In M&A news, Germany’s Bayer has cleared a major hurdle in its takeover of Monsanto after
winning U.S. approval for the deal, though it has agreed to sell around $9 billion in assets.
And we could see more pain for UK retailers with premarket indications calling discounter B&M
1-5 percent lower after its full-year update.
Company news/stocks movers:
Bayer BAYGn.de wins U.S. nod for Monsanto deal to create agriculture giant urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL5N1T03II
UK retailer B&M's BMEB.L full-year profit rises 25 pct urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL5N1T10ZB
Uniper UN01.DE supervisory board rejects calls for special audit urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nASO0005NA
British engineer Bodycote BOY.L says profit will beat consensus urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL3N1T12NO
UK's Londonmetric LMPL.L "nervous" about retail sector outlook urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL3N1T12MI
De La Rue DLAR.L full-year profit hit by loss of post-Brexit passports urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL5N1T10HR
SAS SAS.ST Q2 pretax loss smaller than expected urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nASO0005NB
Royal Bank of Scotland's RBS.L chief financial officer resigns urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL5N1T10V8
Daimler DAIGn.DE leads $175 mln investment in Uber's EMEA rival Taxify urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL3N1T123I
Vedanta VED.L prepares legal challenge to India copper plant closure after fatal protest –
sources urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL3N1T11DT
UK's Inchcape INCH.L pays $20 mln to settle claim it overbilled U.S. Navy urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL2N1T026F
Rolls-Royce RR.L says tripling capacity to fix Trent 1000 engine problems urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL5N1T06OQ
Chinese-owned group wins French soccer rights, Canal Plus empty-handed urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL5N1T0675
Opel agrees job guarantees, investments at German sites urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL5N1T06FT
German retail sales rebound with bigger-than-expected jump in April urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL5N1T03V6
UK shop prices show biggest fall since January 2017 (–BRC) urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL9N1M1020
(Kit Rees)
*****
CATCHING UP WITH ITALY (0606 GMT)
European stocks futures have opened slightly lower, and as Italian politics has been front
and centre this week, here's a quick summary of what went down after the European market close
yesterday.
Italy's Democratic Party (PD) has called for snap elections in July, and sources from
several of Italy's main parties said they were in favour of fresh elections on July 29. This
follows an inconclusive vote in March, with the president finally designating former
International Monetary Fund official Carlo Cottarelli as interim prime minister on Monday.
urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nR1N1SG01M urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL5N1T02Q3
Yesterday Italy's benchmark FTSE MIB index .FTMIB tumbled 2.7 percent and hit its lowest
level since July 2017, while European stocks also fell.
"There was sufficient negative contagion to leave the Eurozone benchmarks nursing their
biggest losses for two months, although it does feel as if this crisis coincides with investors
already looking to scale back risk exposure," Ian Williams, economics & strategy research
analyst at Peel Hunt, said in a note.
(Kit Rees)
*****
EARNINGS: QUIET (0542 GMT)
It's set to be pretty quiet for company earnings this morning, but nevertheless here are the
firms set to give updates in Europe:
HACGn.DE Q2 2018 KPS AG Earnings Release
NAVA.OL Q1 2018 Navamedic ASA Earnings Release
B8FGn.DE Q1 2018 Biofrontera AG Earnings Release
SAGT.OL Q1 2018 Saga Tankers ASA Earnings Release
MATAS.CO Q4 2018 Matas A/S Earnings Release
DMRE.DE Q1 2018 Demire Deutsche Mittelstand Real Estate AG Earnings Release
FRU.DE Q1 2018 Ferratum Oyj Earnings Release
2GBG.DE Q1 2018 2G energy AG Earnings Release
LMPL.L Full Year 2018 Londonmetric Property PLC Earnings Release
STRV.VI Q1 2018 Strabag SE Earnings Release
EVNV.VI Half Year 2018 EVN AG Earnings Release
SAS.ST Q2 2018 SAS AB Earnings Release
(Kit Rees)
*****
MORNING CALL: EUROPEAN SHARES SEEN OPENING SLIGHTLY LOWER (0530 GMT)
Good morning. European shares are expected to open flat to slightly lower, according to
financial spreadbetters, as concerns over Italy continue to worry investors while U.S.-China
trade relations are also in focus.
Spreadbetters see Britain's FTSE 100 edging 0.1 percent lower, Germany's DAX opening flat
and France's CAC down between 0.1 to 0.5 percent.
On Tuesday, the U.S. said that it still holds the threat of imposing tariffs on $50 billion
of imports from China and would use it unless Beijing addressed the issue of theft of American
intellectual property. Asian shares were lower across the board, with the CSI300 index down 1.3
percent. urn:newsml:reuters.com:*:nL3N1T11NW
Wall Street also ended in negative territory as Italy jitters knocked sentiment across the
pond.
(Kit Rees)
<^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Italian stocks https://reut.rs/2JdnYX7
italy https://reut.rs/2L6r9xn
open https://reut.rs/2L3YF7q
GS Italy opinion poll https://reut.rs/2JgjhvS
Iberian utilities UBS May 30 https://reut.rs/2JeR8W6
Italy growth versus stock market May 30 https://reut.rs/2L6kYsV
May 30 GS FTSE MIB VOL https://reut.rs/2L7jm2c
ECB https://reut.rs/2Jjo4MU
chemicals and crude https://reut.rs/2L7K8aI
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>
(Reporting by Danilo Masoni, Helen Reid, Kit Rees and Julien Ponthus)
((mailto:kit.rees@thomsonreuters.com; +44 207 542 2784;))