Nomura sees Q2 earnings recovery for Indian oil marketing firms

GAIL (India)

15/09/2026 07:17

Updates
** Nomura says Indian oil marketing companies (OMCs) tracking healthy earnings recovery in Q2FY27 despite crude breaching $100 per barrel
** OMCs supported by full-quarter impact of May fuel price hikes and lower LPG under-recoveries Q/Q
** Brokerage expects integrated margins for OMCs to reach $6–$12 per barrel in Q2
** Nomura estimates Indian Oil Corporation IOC.NS ("Buy", PT: 180 rupees) and Bharat Petroleum BPCL.NS ("Buy", PT: 395 rupees) to report PBT of 32 billion rupees and 26 billion rupees, respectively
** Expects Hindustan Petroleum HPCL.NS("Neutral", PT: 420 rupees) to post a loss of 28 billion rupees in Q2 
** Brokerage says it prefers IOCL and BPCL given their higher exposure towards refining
** HPCL may continue to face challenges from higher oil price due to its higher marketing leverage - Nomura
** Adds, it expects increased volatility in LNG prices to positively impact margins for the gas marketing business of GAIL GAIL.NS ("Buy", PT: 195 rupees) and Gujarat Energy GJAA.NS ("Buy", PT: 379 rupees)
** Says city gas distribution may be most impacted among gas utilities given increased gas costs, falling domestic gas allocation, and their inability to fully pass on increased gas costs
   ** Shares of Indian Oil Corporation down 0.8%, Bharat Petroleum down 0.2%, Hindustan Petroleum down 0.4%, GAIL (India) down 1.5%, while Gujarat Energy up 1.8%

 (Reporting by Payel Das in Bengaluru)
 ((Payel.das@thomsonreuters.com))