Goldman Sachs expects elevated refined fuel margins through 2026 on Hormuz disruption

Goldman Sachs group

02/06/2026 02:54

June 2 (Reuters) - Refined fuel margins are set to remain sharply elevated through 2026 after disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz tightened product markets more than crude, Goldman Sachs said in a note on Monday.
Goldman expects refined margins to stay 2–3 times higher for the rest of 2026 than 2013–2019 averages with diesel margins exceeding pre-war forecasts by $19–26 per barrel.
Global refined product exports were down 4 million barrels per day (bpd) year-on-year, led by a lack of Persian Gulf product exports and reduced Asian refinery output.
"We expect gasoline and especially diesel stocks to decline further in the initial Hormuz reopening stage as demand likely recovers more quickly than refined product supply," the bank said.
Goldman sees U.S. and European diesel margins at $50 and $37 per barrel, respectively, in the fourth quarter of 2026 and respective gasoline margins at $22 and $14.
The global refining system faces increasing challenges, including about 2.5 million bpd of war-related refinery outages in the Middle East, a sub-optimal crude slate and continued attacks on Russian refining infrastructure.
Goldman sees global utilisation rates climbing toward an all-time high by the end of 2026 as demand ramps up but operating capacity falls behind.
The bank sees U.S. and EU diesel margins in 2027 averaging $41 and $29 per barrel respectively. 

 (Reporting by Pablo Sinha in Bengaluru
Editing by Shri Navaratnam)
 ((Pablo.Sinha@thomsonreuters.com;))